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Sushi’s Week 1 Picks

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As promised, I’ll be writing an article a week picking that week’s football games against the spread. Of course, I also promised that I’d write an NFL Preview but let’s not talk about that.

In lieu of a comprehensive four-thousand word NFL Preview, I’ll spend eighty words doing a half-assed job of it. Running through division leaders, I like the Pats, Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Eagles, Saints, Packers, and Seahawks with the Wild Cards being the Chargers and Dolphins in the AFC and San Fran (barely squeaking in) and Chicago in the NFC. I think Denver will make it to the Super Bowl against either New Orleans or Seattle, whichever one manages to get home-field advantage in the NFC. Since Seattle has a tougher schedule, I pick a Broncos-Saints Super Bowl, which I predict the Broncos will win.

Let’s get started with the Week 1 picks. Remember, each pick is against the spread. The home team is in caps.

SEATTLE -5.5 over Green Bay

This paragraph was written on Wednesday, the day before this game.

Super Bowl champs, playing at home, fired up and ready to defend their title and only giving six? Count me in! Yeah, I suppose Green Bay has a very good team and they’ve got Aaron Rodgers, but how are they supposed to compete with the Hawks, on their turf, on opening night?

I like Green Bay a lot this year, with Aaron Rodgers and the passing game, by and large Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, finally being supported by a strong running game in Eddie Lacy. I like them a lot, just not enough to defeat Seattle, even when getting 5.5 points.

New Orleans -3 over ATLANTA

Yes, Atlanta was wracked by injuries last year. Yes, Atlanta is now healthy. Yes, Atlanta now has Julio Jones and a full strength Roddy White. Yes, Atlanta will be better than last year.

However, this line seems to have overcorrected. While the Falcons got much better by merely getting back their injured stars, they also lost Tony Gonzalez, the future Hall of Fame tight end. This is all without mentioning the improvements that the Saints made. They traded up to draft Brandin Cooks, a wide receiver, in the first round. He’s been great this preseason and in camp, and while we all know that the preseason isn’t a good indicator of future success, he has gotten praise from Drew Brees which speaks to Cooks’ ability. In addition, Rob Ryan has gotten another toy to play with in Jairus Byrd, the star free safety signed away from Buffalo so their underrated defense should get even better.

There’s not even cold weather to mess with the Saints. The line should be higher than it is, but I’ll happily take New Orleans.

ST. LOUIS -3.5 over Minnesota

Let’s play a betting game I like to call Would You Bet Your Life On?

In this week’s edition of Would You Bet Your Life On? the question is:

Would you bet your life on…

  1. A fearsome defensive team at home giving only three points or…
  2. A team starting Matt Cassel (which in itself is enough) facing the aforementioned intimidating D-line?

If you want to bet your life on the shaky right arm of Matt Cassel then the real question is whether you’d like to die by lethal injection or by firing squad.

And by the way, there’s a 79.3% chance that Cassel leads a comeback win over the Rams causing me to lose whatever credibility I may have built up after my successful “Germany wins the World Cup” prediction.

Cleveland +6.5 over PITTSBURGH

Is it just me or does Cleveland seem like this year’s early favorite for the Sneaky Good Team, as the team that doesn’t necessarily have a great record but is surprisingly good and plays everyone close? (For reference, last year’s winner was the Rams.) I mean, they’ve got a top 5 corner in Joe Haden to shut down the opposing number one receiver, a pretty good defense overall, and a not-too-bad offense. Hamstrung by their offense, it’s unlikely they’ll win much, but their defense will at the very least keep things close.

That defense, against their overrated opponent, will make sure, if they don’t win outright, that at the very least they’ll cover the spread.

PHILADELPHIA -10.5 over Jacksonville

Let’s see, do I take a high-octane offense playing at home against a weak defense or the team starting Chad Henne? Hmmmm….

By the way, I’m all in on this game. In my main fantasy league I’m streaming both the Eagles’ defense and their kicker, Cody Parkey. Here’s to a 42-7 point old-fashioned ass-whupping by the Eagles!

NEW YORK JETS -5 over Oakland

New York’s intimidating run defense will swallow up MJD and Darren McFadden alive. Their impressive D-line (probably the second best in the league behind the Rams) should get after Carr enough to mask their deficiencies in the secondary. Last year’s horrendous offense should be improved with the Decker and Johnson signings, and again, Oakland isn’t good enough to stop even the Jets’ feeble offense.

Against superior teams to the Raiders (pretty much every team in the league) the Jets won’t be able to do much at all, but in this matchup, a 1:00 game on the East Coast, the Jets should roll.

Cincinnati +2 over BALTIMORE

This line mystifies me. The Bengals are superior to the Ravens in every single facet of the game. The only non-special teams position that isn’t clearly in Cincinnati’s favor is at QB, and even so, I’d rather have Dalton than Flacco this year.

Yes, the game is in Baltimore, but even so, having home field advantage is only an extra three points in your favor. I can’t believe that the Bengals are only considered to be a single point better than the Ravens at a neutral site. That makes this pick pretty easy for me.

This, by the way, is my Taco Bell Upset Pick of the Week, named in honor of what Taco Bell’s food will do to your stomach.

CHICAGO -7 over Buffalo

The Bears will have a top 3 offense, along with the Saints and Broncos. That’s one of my big predictions this the year. They’ve got Trestman running the show, Cutler’s healthy (for now), their offense has Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Santonio Holmes, and Martellus Bennett. That’s two superstars (Forte, Marshall), three studs (Jeffery, Trestman, Cutler), and two above average players for their position (Holmes, Bennett).

Last year, the Bills’ defense was criminally underrated. This year, it’s lost much of its luster. They’ve lost two important players off of last year’s squad in linebacker Kiko Alonso, who’s out for the year after an injury, and free safety Jairus Byrd, who went to New Orleans through free agency.

The Bears should smash through the Bills this game. Buffalo has no one to cover Marshall or Jeffery and their weak offense won’t be able to attack Chicago’s defense.

HOUSTON -3 over Washington

The Washington Professional Football Team (which will henceforth be known as the WPFT) is boom or bust this year. Their defense is okay, nothing special. Their offense has the potential to be a top 5 unit or a bottom 5 mess.

The WPFT has acquired a number of players to help RGIII shine on offense. Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Alfred Morris, and Jordan Reed all combine to form a formidable passing attack. However, they need someone to throw them the ball. If RGIII is hurt or ineffective, the WPFT will have to turn to Kirk Cousins, who, while he’s a good backup, is almost certainly not starting material.

Also, I’m looking forward to watching Jadeveon Clowney and JJ Watt in action. Not so much Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the WPFT’s defense isn’t good enough to properly take advantage of Fitzpatrick’s shortcomings.

KANSAS CITY -4 over Tennessee

Last year, Kansas City was the league’s Good-Bad team, meaning that they beat all the bad teams and lost to all the good ones. The only good team they beat last year that I can recall offhand was the Colts, 20-6, in Week 16.

Luckily for the Chiefs, the Titans aren’t a good team so they’re in good shape.

NEW ENGLAND -5 over Miami

Gronk is back! Gronk is back! Gronk is back! Gronk is back!

Seriously though, who are the Dolphins gonna use to cover Gronk? Dannell Ellerbee. Yeah, that seems likely…

For both my fantasy team’s sake and Tom Brady’s, GRONK IS BACK!!!! WOOHOO!!!!

TAMPA BAY -2.5 over Carolina

I was a little surprised at this line when I saw it. Last year’s Tampa Bay Staph Infections were favored at home against the 12-4 breakout team of the year! Then I thought about it a little and was kinda like “Huh”. Surprisingly, this line is actually quite reasonable.

Lovie Smith, the defensive guru, is now Tampa Bay’s head coach. He’s got a bunch of skilled players with which to mold his defense from Gerald McCoy to Lavonte David to Alterraun Verner. Now he faces the Panthers’ crappy offense, with a hurt QB who’s not going to run (which is his biggest skill), poor wide receivers, and a nonexistent line.

Carolina’s defense isn’t anywhere near as good as it was last year after losing three out of the four starters in their secondary, so they won’t be able to take advantage of Josh “The career backup who somehow parlayed a half season of playing unsustainably well into a starting job and a new contract” McCown and the rest of the Buccaneer’s offense.

DALLAS +4.5 over San Francisco

Dallas’ defense is nonexistent. They’ve lost players to injury, to free agency, and they’re hamstrung by cap concerns so they’re unable to sign any good new players.

Scott Linehan is their new offensive coordinator and he throws a ton. Also, they’re going to have to score to keep up with their horrendous defense, leading to more passing. Luckily, their offense is well built to account for that defense. Their O-line, led by Tyron Smith, is great, and should give DeMarco Murray a chance to run. They’ll also keep Tony Romo upright so he can throw to Dez Bryant. The Cowboys won’t be good this year per se, but they’ll stay in games, and will be able to steal a few. Anyways, the Cowboys are great at the two most important things in football: they’re gonna be fun to watch because of their high-scoring games, and because of their prolific offense and horrible defense, they’ll likely be the team that swings the most fantasy matchups (including mine as I’m starting Tony Romo and my opponent is starting the 49ers D/ST).

However, I don’t like San Francisco at all this year. Their defense is overrated after the defections in their secondary, the suspension of Aldon Smith, the injury to NaVorro Bowman, and the increasing age of Justin Smith and Patrick Willis. Their offense is okay, but nothing special. I think they’ll squeak into the playoffs, but barely.

Anyways, in this game, Dallas, even if they don’t win outright, should keep it close enough to cover the spread.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis

The .5 scares me. I can’t lie. It’s the difference between getting your money back from the casino if Denver wins by a touchdown and losing it all. While we’re here, the two most important milestones in football lines are 3 and 7, as those are the most common margins of victory.

Still, I think Denver will mash Indianapolis. If you look at the Colts, their whole team is bad other than Andrew Luck. Only Luck (and luck) prevented the Colts from being a crappy team the past two years. The Broncos, on the other hand, upgraded their defense a ton this offseason with the acquisitions of TJ Ward, DeMarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib, and their offense is still great, even if it’s not necessarily going to be the unstoppable force it was last year.

The scary thing is that Denver might even be a little underrated this year, if that’s possible for the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Also, an important lesson for a fledgling bettor to know is to never bet against Peyton Manning in a night game. Would you like to take the “unless it’s in the playoffs” joke, or should I?

DETROIT -6 over New York Giants

Can anyone cover Calvin Johnson? A double or triple team usually can (although not always (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8tCdCWB1LM), which is why Johnson is probably not quite reaching his immense potential stats-wise. Now he finally has the opportunity to dominate because of his teammates finally being able to take some defensive attention off him. Instead of the likes of Nate Burleson lining up opposite him, he’s now got big free agent signing, wide receiver, Golden Tate, and first round pick Eric Ebron, a tight end, playing with him, along with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell.

Of course, that whole last paragraph is irrelevant in this game. The Giants have a bad defense and won’t be able to stop Matt Stafford and Co.

San Diego +3 over ARIZONA

Arizona’s impressive defense of last year is no longer as spectacular after defections and injuries. San Diego’s defense was never good in the first place.

The Cardinals’ offense is improving. Their offensive line could finally be more than a turnstile, and they’ve got three good receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. Their rushing attack is led by Andre Ellington and Carson Palmer hasn’t been too bad on the downside of his career.

The Chargers have a three-headed committee and running back between Ryan Matthews, Donald Brown, and Danny Woodhead. They’ve got Keenan Allen leading the pass attack and a couple of good tight ends in Ladarius Green and Antonio Gates.

Based on talent alone, Arizona has a slight edge over San Diego. However, as far as I can tell, they’re more or less equal, leading me to take the points as the deciding factor.

Or maybe I should take the Cards with Peterson. Or the Chargers with Rivers. Or ‘Zona with Mathieu. Or San Diego with… You know what? I think I’m just gonna end this article before I go crazy trying to figure this game out.

Last Week: 0-0-0

This Week: 1-0-0

Total: 1-0-0

The NFL Gambling Preview

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The NFL season is coming up soon. Woohoo! With that American pastime coming up, let’s take a look at another one of our favorite things to do: gambling.

Now, most of you are probably aware of game lines, (i.e. Team X -7) but although you can bet on individual games at this point, it’s a crapshoot for the most part because the games are too far away.

Luckily, before the season starts, you can bet on bets called “Futures Bets”.

Note for people who know all this stuff already (either geniuses or degenerate gamblers): the next paragraph is just explaining about betting so you can skip it if you want to.

What are futures bets? I’m glad you asked. Futures bets, as the name implies, are bets on the future (I’m happy I could clear that up for you). Specifically, you bet on something to happen far in the future. Also, futures bets aren’t on specific games, but on overall events. A future bet wouldn’t be predicting the Jets to win a game in Week 17, but picking the Jets to make the playoffs would be.

As an example of futures bets in practice, some of my regular readers might remember that I mentioned a few weeks ago that if I had followed my hunch on Germany before the World Cup, a futures bet on them to win the World Cup would pay out something like 1100$ for a 200$ bet. Another example is betting on the, let’s say, the Athletics to win the World Series. Again, you’re gambling on something for the future.

Okay gamblers (and geniuses)! Come back for this paragraph!

So we’re going to go through the best futures bets that are available right now. For the fun of it, let’s pretend I’ve got 2500$ with which to make bets (I end up using 2320$ of my allotment). At the end of the season we can check back with these picks to see how much money I would’ve lost and what lessons we can learn from my failures (other than the fact that I’m an idiot).

Just so you know, in the third to last paragraph of this column, there’s information on a football games picking pool for Sushi on Sports, if you want to check it out before reading the rest of the article.

(All lines are according to Bovada. All lines are accurate as of the writing of this article.)

Let’s start with a sample bet, just to show you how it works:

Kansas City Chiefs: 8 wins

Over: +105

Under: +135

Now that we have this sample line let’s take each part step by step.

The first part says that the over/under win total for the Chiefs is 8 wins. The next two lines show the odds on each bet. Let’s say I bet the under. If the Chiefs win more than 8 games, I lose. If they win less than 8 games, I win. If they win exactly 8 games, it’s a push, and the casino would give me my money back.

The numbers next to over and under refer to the odds on the bet. It’s pretty simple. The odds refer to a bet of 100$. If you bet the over, you’d bet 100$ to win 105$, because of the plus sign in front of the 105. If you bet the under, because of the minus sign, you’d have to put 135$ to win 100$. Not too hard, huh? With that, let’s get started!

Oakland Raiders

UNDER 5 wins: +105

500$ to win 525$

The logic is simple here: the Raiders have a crappy team, are stuck in a division with three good teams, and they play the NFC West this year. Then the casino gives you +105 odds to take them? Count me in. This, for me, is one of the easiest bets of the year, which is why I’m betting a lot of my (admittedly, fake) money on them.

Saint Louis Rams

UNDER 7.5 wins: +120

150$ to win 180$

In almost any other division, I’d take the over, but in the NFC West, every team’s win total is pushed down by having four good teams in the division. Sam Bradford is shaky and usually gets injured, when combined with the odds of +120 makes this a pretty easy call.

Dallas Cowboys

OVER 7.5 wins: +105

100$ to win 105$

The Cowboys have gone 8-8 for the past three years and always seem to be competitive down the end of the season. The NFC East is always wide open and has a lot of parity, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the Cowboys will win about 7 to 9 games. If a couple of bounces go their way, then they win 8 or 9 games and I win my bet.

Detroit Lions

UNDER 8.5 wins: -125

125$ to win 100$

Let’s just put it this way: it’ll be a lot more fun to watch Detroit self-destruct when I’m winning money (albeit nonexistent) out of it.

Pittsburgh Steelers

UNDER 8.5 wins: +120

100$ to win 120$

Pittsburgh’s old, with a QB who always misses at least two games a year. In their division are three solid teams. The Steelers have been on a downward trend for a couple of years, now, and it’d be surprising if they turn it around.

Also, Pittsburgh has to be over .500 for me to lose this bet, something I find laughable. I suspect that this is an instance of where the public has shifted the lines. The Steelers are a recognizable brand with recent success, meaning that the public is more likely to bet in their favor. That much is clear; the over on this bet is all the way up to -150. Anyways, here’s a gambling rule of thumb: always go against the public. They’re the ones who let bookies drive expensive cars. Always go against the grain when gambling.

Green Bay Packers

OVER 10.5 wins: -115

115$ to win 100$

Put simply: as long as Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, they’ll be fine.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WILL make the playoffs: +400

50$ to win 200$

I like this bet for two reasons:

  1. The odds are great, especially for a wide-open division and
  2. The Buccos have a sneaky-good team, with a great defense and a decent offense.

See, gun to my head, I’d say that Tampa Bay won’t make the playoffs. However, gambling isn’t always about what you think is going to happen. Instead, it’s about finding value in bets. Let’s say Tampa Bay wins their division 25% of the time, an average projection. Then, let’s say that the Bucs win a wild card 10% of the time. That adds up to 35% for those of you out there who aren’t exactly math geniuses. Now, the odds of +400 say that Tampa Bay has 4:1 odds to make the playoffs, implying that the Buccaneers will make the playoffs 25% of the time. Well, 35%>25%, which means that we’ve found value in this bet. Now, you can quibble with the specific numbers (which were rough guesses), but the overarching idea is the same.

Quick side note: I wrote this section one day and then a couple of days later I checked back for the odds to see if they had changed. They had. The line on this bet was moved down from +400 to +350. What does that mean? Glad you asked. It means that the bettors are betting heavily on Tampa Bay, meaning that they need to adjust the lines in an attempt to spread the bet evenly on both sides in order to ensure a profit, or at the very least not a huge loss.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WILL win the NFC South: +550

100$ to win 550$

The biggest reasons are the same as before: a wide-open division and great value. Going back to the last section, the odds of +550 imply that Tampa Bay will win the division just over 18% of the time. That means that if the likelihood of the Bucs making the playoffs that we stated earlier was correct (or at least reasonably close), then we’ll have found value.

My secondary reasons are the strong defense led by Lavonte David and Lovie Smith and the offense filled with playmakers, although it’s led by a prime candidate for regression: Josh McCown.

By the way, you may be wondering why I didn’t bet on the Tampa Bay over/under for wins if I’m so confident in their ability. To answer the question you didn’t ask, the main reason why is because of the odds. For the making the playoffs and winning the NFC South bets, I feel like I’m getting good value. However, the over/under is 7 wins, which I don’t feel great about in the first place, but the line is -140 to take the over. Those odds are too steep for my taste, especially as I’m not exactly enamored with Tampa Bay.

Indianapolis Colts

WILL NOT make the playoffs: +175

40$ to win 70$

As with the bet on Tampa Bay, if pressed, I would pick Indy to make it to the playoffs. However, I think that there’s a decent shot they don’t, for two reasons:

  1. Houston will be rejuvenated and as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t suck, they’ll ride a great defense and a solid running game to a playoff spot. Now, the caveat of needing Ryan Fitzpatrick to not suck is a rather big one, but on the off chance that he’s half-decent, I want to be there to take advantage of it.
  2. The Colts have been incredibly good in one-touchdown games, going 14-2 over the last two years. Teams are expected to win 50% of one-touchdown games over the long run. No matter how much of Indy’s success in one-touchdown games you attribute to Andrew Luck, they’re due for some regression to the mean, which could push their record down a couple of games.
  3. Outside of Luck, the Colts are horrible. Their horrible-ness includes their offensive line which has done everything other than put out a welcome mat for marauding defensive ends to get past them to maul Luck. If Luck gets injured for any significant period of time, they’re screwed. Now, you might say something like “Oh, Luck isn’t injury-prone. He’ll be fine”. However, even QBs that are considered to be healthy can get hurt in the violent game of football (see: Rodgers, Aaron, 2013 season). If Luck gets hurt for six games, the Colts will not make the playoffs.

Overall, I think those two concerns combined are enough to make it a decent bet to gamble against the Colts making the playoffs. However, the odds aren’t that great which is why I’m not making this bet a very big one.

Philadelphia Eagles

WILL NOT make the playoffs: +120

100$ to win 120$

Here are five reasons why I don’t think the Eagles will make the playoffs:

  1. They lost their biggest offensive weapon (outside of LeSean McCoy) over the offseason when Washington signed DeSean Jackson.
  2. Nick Foles, owner of an impressive 27-2 TD/INT rate last season, is guaranteed to get worse, due to the Plexiglass Principle and regression to the mean. It took that superhuman effort to pull Philadelphia into the playoffs, an effort that’s unlikely to be repeated. When Foles gets worse (even if he’s still a good quarterback overall) the Eagles will have to have other players on their roster get better. With Jackson gone, that task gets harder and harder.
  3. They play the NFC West.
  4. The NFC East, as it usually is, is pretty much a tossup. All four teams are more or less equal. If a couple of bounces don’t go their way, Philadelphia won’t win the division, meaning that they’ll have to win a wild card to get into the playoffs but…
  5. The wild card race is STACKED. One of the two spots is going to the loser of the dogfight in the NFC West between San Francisco and Seattle. That leaves one spot for the other two teams in the NFC West, the loser of the Chicago/Green Bay battle for the NFC North, and the second place team of the NFC South. If they don’t win the division crown, Philadelphia has almost no shot at winning a wild card, making this a great bet for me.

Miami Dolphins

WILL make the playoffs: +250

200$ to win 500$

This is a pretty high confidence bet for me. If you look at the AFC, you’ll see that it’s very top heavy and after the two or three elite teams, it’s a scrum for the rest of the playoff spots. As far as I can tell, Denver will win their division, New England and Indianapolis almost certainly will, and… well, that’s it for guaranteed playoff participants in the AFC. That leaves three spots for the rest of the teams, although one is earmarked for the AFC North. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say that the Bengals win the AFC North. That means that four teams (Houston, San Diego, Kansas City, and Miami) are competing for the two wild card spots.

By the way, I’m counting out the rest of the teams because they’re either too old (Pittsburgh, Baltimore) inexperienced and counting on an unproven QB (New York, Buffalo, Cleveland), or because they just plain suck (Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland).

Anyways, of those four teams in realistic contention, let’s pick nits with each of them:

San Diego: Tough schedule, facing the NFC West and KC and Denver twice.

Kansas City: Ditto, except they (obviously) play San Diego twice instead of themselves.

Houston: Relying on an unreliable QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick) and are unlikely to rebound from last year by winning eight extra games that they’d need to win to go 10-6 to win a wild card.

Miami: Relying on a porous offensive line, had a negative point differential last year, are starting an unproven QB.

All of these concerns are valid and warranted, but I believe that Miami’s are more easily surmounted.

Cleveland Browns

WIN the AFC North: +500

20$ to win 100$

The Browns, along with Tampa Bay, are my two big sleepers for this year. I doubt that Cleveland ends up winning their division but I think they’re the second best team in the AFC North (behind Cincinnati) and the odds were too good to pass up.

Cincinnati Bengals

WIN the AFC: +1600

30$ to win 480$

Again, if I were betting my life, I’d bet on the Broncos to win the AFC, however, the Bengals offer the most appealing combination of good odds and a good team…

Denver Broncos

WIN the AFC: +225

200$ to win 450$

…But I might as well go with the almost sure thing too, just to cover my bases.

San Francisco 49ers

WIN the NFC: +450

100$ to win 450$

Seattle Seahawks

WIN the NFC: +375

100$ to win 375$

I know that it’s uninventive to pick the two best teams in the league to win the league, but the main tenet of gambling is that you’re just there to make money. There’s no need to be a hero by betting on the huge underdog. If you do that then you’re just throwing your money away. Here’s a good tip for life: don’t throw your money away.

Anyways, the road to the Super Bowl runs through the NFC West. Whichever team comes in first place in the division will have the upper hand and will be favored to advance to the Super Bowl. Because of the importance of the division title, the two games between Seattle and San Fran will be even more hard-fought than usual (if that’s possible). It’ll be like having an extra two playoff games.

However, while I’ll bet anything that it’s one of those two teams that represents the NFC in the Super Bowl, the question is which one. To eliminate that question, I bet on both. Now, it doesn’t matter who wins; I make money either way.

Denver Broncos

WIN the Super Bowl: +650

100$ to win 650$

Seattle Seahawks

WIN the Super Bowl: +700

100$ to win 700$

San Francisco 49ers

WIN the Super Bowl: +750

100$ to win 750$

As far as I can tell, there are three genuine Super Bowl contenders: Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver. I’m almost completely certain that the eventual Super Bowl winner will be one of those three teams. There are no underdogs this year that I like enough to back them for a Cinderella run. There’s little parity at the top; after the top three teams, there’s a steep drop off to teams like New England, Indianapolis, and Green Bay. I figure that one of my bets will hit, which means that I’ll win between 450$ and 550$.

For the player props I don’t really like any of the choices. I feel like player props are even more of a crapshoot than the other kinds of bets. However, for the sake of completeness, here are my favorite bets for each of the player props, which combine a chance at winning with good odds:. Just keep in mind that I’m not making these bets personally because I don’t think they’re very good, I just think that these are the best of the bunch. Anyways, here they are:
MVP: Matthew Stafford +2800

If he cuts down on his interceptions and his team has a good season, then he’ll have a decent shot at the MVP. The odds make this a good bet, though.

Most Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford +750

It’s either Stafford or Drew Brees for this (with Peyton Manning looming as a dark horse), except that Stafford’s odds are at +750 and Brees’ are at +275, making Stafford a decent value play.

Most Rushing Yards: C.J. Spiller +3300

In a bet like this one, you’re looking for an explosive back who’s indisputably the starter and who plays for a team that won’t be a throwing very much. Spiller checks all those boxes and has decent odds to boot.

Most Receiving Yards: Antonio Brown +2000

Checks the same boxes as Spiller: explosive, the clear number one on the depth chart with no close competitors on a team with a good quarterback who throws a lot.

I was also intrigued by A.J. Green (+1600), Larry Fitzgerald (+4000), and T.Y. Hilton (+4000) before ultimately deciding against them.

At the end of the season we’ll follow up on these bets and see what happened, where we went wrong, and what we did right.

The next NFL related article to come out on this site is probably going to be some massive NFL Preview. That’ll be out by the end of the month.

Throughout the football season, I’ll be keeping our betting tradition alive. Each week I’ll pick each game against the spread. At the end of the season we’ll tally up the score and see whether I know nothing about football or almost nothing about football.

Speaking of which, I’m starting a Pigskin Pick‘em tourney on ESPN for Sushi on Sports. If you’d like to join (so you can show me how much smarter you are than me), the name of the pool is “Sushi on Sports Pool”. The passcode is (inventively, I know) SushiOnSports. If you’d like to join, feel free. It should be a lot of fun.

Anyways, if you enjoyed this article, a great thing you could do is merely click follow (I think it’s on the right hand side) and to share the link to this site with your friends, family, coworkers, and random people on the street.

Thanks for your help and I hope you enjoyed the column!

 

 

NFL Draft Diary

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Well, this is my first ever blog post. I’m not sure where this will take me but I hope it’ll get me where I want to go (yes, I know that this is incredibly vague, but hey, it’s my blog!).

I’m 14, and an “aspiring writer”. I plan on being a writer when I grow up and I need to gain recognition and readership. If you enjoy what I write (or you enjoy making fun of what I write, either or) then please just share it with your friends and family and whoever else you think would like it. Doing that would really help me out and in advance, thank you!

Now, after that blatant self-promotion, onto the good stuff! For the NFL Draft a week ago, I wrote a running diary, otherwise known as a draft diary.

Just a short explanation of a draft diary: a draft diary is essentially a running log and commentary of the draft (or any event) by the author. The time at which I wrote everything is written down and, other than a small amount of editing, fleshing out some thoughts, changing around some words, and adding in a couple of jokes, everything is the same as what I originally wrote.

I hope you enjoy!

Coming to you live (well almost) from my home, the 2014 NFL draft! This year’s draft class is as deep as any, and I’m pumped for it, especially the Giants’ and Jets’ picks, as they’re my hometown teams.

Watching with me here tonight is my dad whose main contribution is going to be ooh-ing and ah-ing at every pick, saying helpful things like “Wow, I can’t believe they picked _____” or “Who is that guy?. Always a pleasure. I’ve got to question why he’s watching the draft in the first place if he doesn’t know any of the players, but still.

Also joining us tonight is a cold plate of pasta and Mom. Her main contribution tonight will probably be getting mad at me when I don’t eat the pasta, getting mad at me for not unloading the dishwasher, getting mad at me for the fun of it, and huffing exasperatedly once she decides that it’s getting late and that I should go to sleep.

Should be a fun draft…

A couple of notes: I’m watching on my DVR for much of the night (stupid math test tomorrow) and I’ve got to end at about 10:30 because I’ve “got to have a good amount of sleep” as per my parents. Of course, they don’t realize that all that matters is sports! Life is secondary to sports! On that pathetic note, on to the draft!

8:31 Dad turns on the TV and we’re off!

8:32 Roger Goodell enters, talking for a bit (we skipped over the speech so I don’t know what was said) while being showered by boos. Stay classy, New York. Wait, a second… Why am I saying this? I’m from New York. Just forget I said anything.

8:33 I like Ray Lewis’ new beard and how he grew out his hair. A bit of a shock, though, after seeing him in one look for so long, but at least it doesn’t look too bad.

8:35 ESPN just showed a graphic showing what people think the Texans should do with the number 1 overall pick. Nearly 60% think they should take Jadeveon Clowney. I agree with them—JJ Watt and Clowney on the same team? With his offensive line, Andrew Luck should probably take out a life insurance policy on himself.

8:38 Jon Gruden says for the 57th time that the Texans need to take their quarterback of the future in this draft. Thanks Jon, we didn’t realize after the first 56 times.

8:42 Goodell comes out to more boos to announce the pick…

8:43 Jadeveon Clowney!!!

8:43 Luck’s reaction: Oh, god, no!

8:43 Peyton’s reaction: *evil Manning face* *evil laugh* I got out at the perfect time! Thanks Satan!

8:43 Peyton’s neck disks’ reaction: Thank the lord!

8:45 I love that pick for the Texans, it means that they’re stacked with pass-rushers. Presuming that they can pick Bridgewater, Carr, or at the very least, Garoppolo, the Texans will be set. They seem to be following the Giants mode of stockpiling pass-rushers and hoping that everything else comes later.

8:47 We just finished a series of insane highlights of Clowney being a beast. Not sure what to say… I’m just in awe of his raw power. It’s just an example of, with the concussion crisis in the NFL, how it’s not the hits that are changing, it’s just the players getting bigger, faster and stronger, or more accurately, the players getting too big, too fast, and too strong.

8:52 Goodell comes out to his customary boos and announces that the Rams took Greg Robinson. Good pick for them; they get someone who’s not a sieve and who can try to keep Bradford from getting injured.

8:53 ESPN rolls out a graphic saying that this is the first time in 20 years that Jeff Fisher has taken an OL with his first round pick. Can anyone say small sample size?

8:55 My other big thought on the pick: the Rams had very few big offensive plays and their fleecing of Washington a couple of years ago allows them the freedom to take the best player available at their 2nd overall pick and then a chance to take a skill position (presumably wide receiver) at 13th.

8:56 Taking a five minute break to finish the cold pasta (Thanks Mom)….

9:05 Never mind… 9 minutes.

9:06 Goodell comes out, obligatory boos, and Jacksonville selects Blake Bortles. I alternate between hate and love with this pick, although I’m leaning toward the former. It isn’t great from a football standpoint, but from a PR standpoint, it’s genius. They got the QB from Florida, immediately selling season tickets for next year. Still, it’s hard to like the pick as Bortles is raw and Jacksonville has a history of not developing quarterbacks very well (see Gabbert, Blaine). He also won’t have many (if any. Aren’t you proud of me? I was nice to Jacksonville) weapons which will stunt his development, which is too bad, because if he were drafted by a “quarterback-whisperer”, he would have had a great shot at an elite career. He’s got all the physical tools but no polish. Sucks for Bortles and it sucks for Jacksonville. Oh well.

9:09 Browns trade the number 4 pick to the Bills for the number 9 pick this year and the 1st and 5th rounders for 2015. I don’t like that at all for either team. The Bills aren’t one piece (presumably Watkins) away from contending and since they won’t contend, it’s too steep a price for a piece that’s not needed right away. Even worse, the Browns are just Watkins (with the 4 pick) and a quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater (with the 26 pick from Indianapolis) away from contending immediately, especially in a division with the old Steelers, the three-yards-per-carry Ravens, and the bipolar Bengals. Ugh.

9:13 The Bills select Sammy Watkins out of Clemson. Meh. It’s great for the Bills, but, as I said earlier, the Bills aren’t just a piece away from the playoffs. I was pumped for the Browns and after the trade, the Cleveland 2014 season just woke up, rubbed its eyes, found out about the pick, rolled over, and died. Knowing Cleveland, Watkins is going to come back to haunt them. The lesson, as always? God hates Cleveland.

9:19 The Raiders select Khalil Mack. Solid pick, although I think they should have rolled the pick over. Their team is barren and it’d be better for them to trade down and pick up more picks this year and next because they need everything.

9:22 Gruden insists that the Raiders should have taken a quarterback. Why? So they can drum the hope out of him by losing and losing and then losing some more? I feel like Gruden gets a bonus every time he says that a team should draft a quarterback. I suppose we’ll find out if we see him driving around in a gold plated Lamborghini Veneno.

9:25 Atlanta picks Jake Matthews. Another solid pick, although, like the Raiders, I think they should have rolled it over. They don’t have all that much depth in their stars-and-scrubs roster, and they need more picks to acquire that depth.

9:28 Buccos select Mike Evans. Evans picks up his young daughter and hugs her while crying which is heartwarming, although it looked like he was wiping his face on her dress which ruined the moment a little for me.

9:29 Honestly, I think it should be Manziel who’s crying. He came into the draft, was told that he was great while being built up and hyped like crazy, and now his TA&M teammates, Evans and Matthews, were both picked before him. What a bummer.

9:30 This has been a horrible week for Drake: first the Raptors get knocked out of the playoffs by the Nets and now his good friend, Manziel, is dropping faster in the draft than a penny dropped from the Empire State Building.

9:32 The Browns move up from 9 to 8 with the Vikings by sending them 145 overall.

9:33 I like the pick for Tampa Bay as they add an elite wideout to pair with V-Jax. This gives them a sneakily good team although I’d like to see them add a quarterback to back up McCown.

9:37 Browns select Justin Gilbert, a cornerback out of Oklahoma State. Decent pick; they get to pair him with Joe Haden to instantly form a great cornerback tandem. I don’t mind the pick, I just feel that they could have selected someone more suited to their needs.

9:38 Assuming that they take a quarterback with the 26 pick, then why wouldn’t they take a wide receiver like Brandin Cooks or Odell Beckham Jr.? If they took a receiver they’d have a good TE (Jordan Cameron), an elite wide receiver (Josh Gordon) and an elite second receiver (Cooks, Beckham Jr., or another wide receiver). Then the quarterback they pick will luck into one of the cushiest situations around. That’s why I wanted the Browns to keep their number 4 pick to take Watkins. Adding the best receiver in the draft to a team already with a top 3 receiver? Watch out defenses.

9:40 Minnesota selects Anthony Barr. He’s got the potential to be this year’s Luke Kuechly, the mid-first-round-pick linebacker that mashes in the NFL, but I don’t know… I think they should have taken Manziel, an exciting quarterback who would earn ticket sales for them. If they thought they were drafting him too high, they should have traded down to the mid-teens to take him. Half these picks and trades seem illogical or just foolish. The lesson? The NFL is stupid.

9:44 Sanders comes up to announce Detroit’s pick, promoting Madden and thanking the fans for voting him onto the cover of Madden 25. I wish that they didn’t have to mess up the draft’s flow by advertising. Oh wait, haha, I forgot: this is the NFL and everything is a shameless money grab. Never mind, although it did kinda screw up the chemistry that the fans and Goodell have with the give-and-take of the booing and Goodell smiling bemusedly, inciting the fans to boo even more.

9:45 Eric Ebron. I suppose it’s good because it takes pressure off of Megatron, but I was hoping for a wide receiver.

9:46 Never mind. The highlights make him seem more like a wide receiver, in the mold of Jimmy Graham. I like this pick a lot more now, although I’m still mildly upset as I was hoping that Ebron would last until the Giants. Oh well.

9:50 Taylor Lewan, out of Michigan, is selected. It seems as though the Titans and Whisenhunt are entrusting their future to Locker in two ways: One, they’re spending a first round pick on a tackle to keep him safe and two, they’re not selecting a quarterback, showing that they believe that he is the future.

9:52 Yes! The Giants are on the clock! Finally! Hope they don’t screw it up…

9:53 Jon Gruden probably wants New York to draft a QB because their two-time-Super-Bowl-winning QB isn’t good enough. Scratch that, he probably just wanted a new Ferrari.

9:54 The Giants take…

9:54 Odell Beckham Jr.??? A wide receiver?!?!? I know they need someone to line up across from Cruz but there’s so many other things they need! O-line, D-line, linebacker, just… And especially in such a deep draft for wide receivers! Someone like Cody Latimer or Davante Adams would still be around in the second round when they pick if they were so desperate to take a wide receiver. ANYTHING would have been better value at this pick. The only thing keeping me from going crazy about this (if I haven’t gone crazy about this already) is the trust that the Maras, Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin have built up over the years. Still, I don’t like this pick.

9:55 The Chicago war room just breathed a sigh of relief as it seems likelier and likelier that they’ll get Aaron Donald, the defensive tackle from Pitt, to come in to try and stop up the sieve known as their defense, especially the run defense.

9:57 Shawn Coleman overcame leukemia to play football and he announces the pick. The Rams take Aaron Donald.

9:57 The Bears war room just simultaneously collapsed onto the floor.

9:58 That sound you hear is Phil Emery pounding his fist against the floor, screaming “Why? Why?”

10:00 The Bears select Kyle Fuller, the cornerback out of Virginia. Not sure why they need him as they’ve already got Tim Jennings and a decent secondary. Maybe Emery was incapacitated and some intern just decided to send in the pick just for fun. At least that explains the crappy pick.

10:03 Pittsburgh select Ryan Shazier, the LB hailing from OSU. Shazier probably feels like the luckiest man alive right now: he got drafted by the Steelers and Dick LeBeau, the masters of developing linebackers! Love that pick.

10:07 If Jones takes Manziel right now without trading away Romo, the Dallas fans will riot and petition Goodell to pull a Silver and take the Cowboys away from Jones.

10:08 The Cowboys select Zack Martin from Notre Dame. Jones just dodged a bullet with that one. I like the unsexy pick that won’t sell tickets but that shows that Jones is committed to winning and substance rather than a thin façade of glitz and glamour.

10:11 Baltimore selects CJ Mosley. Is he the heir to Ray Lewis?

10:12 Guess who’s commenting on Mosley’s highlights? Ray Lewis!

10:12 Lewis talks about him and his leadership, instincts, and patience. I suppose this is why it’s useful to have a former player as a color commentary guy although it usually ends up with immense awkwardness and unintentional comedy. At least it entertains us viewers, just not in the way that the networks intended.

10:14 The Jets select…!!!!!! Calvin Pryor… How could they do this???? Their defense is good enough as it is, they need some freaking offense! What about their horrible wide receivers? Wouldn’t it have made sense to take Brandin Cooks or someone that could help their pathetic offense? I hate this pick in every way.

10:16 My theory is that Rex Ryan thinks that his father will love him a little more every time he takes a defensive player. All Jets fans are cringing a little right now.

10:17 At least their defense will be incredible.

10:18 Am I starting to talk myself into this pick?

10:18 I suppose this is what’s called being a fan. By this time tomorrow, I’ll have talked myself into Pryor being the next Ed Reed and the Jets being the best defense of all time.

10:18 Finally back up to current time! Woohoo!

10:19 Miami selects Ja’Wuan James. I’m meh about that pick. On one hand, they drafted effectively for need. On the other, I think they over-drafted him. Couldn’t they have traded down, picked up a 3rd rounder, and gotten their guy either way?

10:20 The Cardinals trade their pick to the Saints for the 27th and 91st picks. That’s exactly what I wanted the Dolphins to do. Oh well.

10:20 I don’t like that at all for the Cards. If they took Manziel, he’d be pissed off and motivated and he’d push that team over the top. And, Larry Fitzgerald would have loved them forever. Too bad.

10:21 For the first time all night, Dad makes a good point: other than the Browns at 26 (with the pick from Indy), no one between 21 (the pick Arizona traded) and 27 (where they’re moving down to) is going to want to take a quarterback, so I suppose it’s actually a good deal for the Cards: they add value and get, at the very least, a quarterback that they wanted anyway.

10:26 The Saints take Brandin Cooks. Good replacement for Lance Moore and/or Darren Sproles. Colston, Cooks, and Graham in one offense?

10:27 The sound you just heard is Drew Brees screaming in joy.

10:28 The sound you just heard is the NFC South secondaries moaning in unison.

10:31 And now it’s time to go to sleep as I’ve got a big math test tomorrow. I can’t say I’m looking forward to that, but whatever. I got through 21 picks and over 2700 words and it was epic. Hope you enjoyed!