As promised, today we’re going to go through a couple of trades from a month and a half ago that I thought were ripoffs at the time. Let’s see whether my original reaction was accurate and if my reasoning was fine or erroneous and if so, why it was.
Trade 1: Carlos Santana, Matt Kemp, and George Kontos for Brian McCann and Miguel Castro
Initial Reaction: Incredibly lopsided in favor of the team getting Santana
Reasoning: Kontos was an irrelevant throwaway and would be dropped immediately. Kemp has had a good track record, was a fourth round pick, and batted behind Justin Upton. I believed Santana was significantly more valuable than McCann, with eligibility at C, 1B, and 3B, and has consistently had more power, a much higher OBP, and better counting stats. Castro was the Blue Jays’ closer for a week or two at the time of this trade and I didn’t think he would stick around long.
Accuracy: This was a mixed bag of assessments. Kemp has been subpar (as we went through together in https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/unraveling-the-padres-outfield/) and currently a huge bust. Santana has been good so far, with some power along with the expected high OBP and low AVG, but McCann has been surprisingly okay, although he’s still been much worse than Santana. As to Castro? Well, I actually had to look him up to remember who was since he’s been irrelevant for so long. He ended up losing the job less than a couple of weeks after this trade was made and has been the minors since.
Current Assessment: Still uneven, not fair at all, but not the brutal trade I expected when it was made.
Trade 2: Mark Melancon, Adam Ottavino, and Russell Martin for Ian Kinsler and Cory Dickerson
Initial Reaction: The team getting Kinsler wins easily
Reasoning: As I mentioned in my last post (https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2015/06/03/trade-evaluation-harper-and-degrom-for-jones-and-abreu/) closers are useless in my league, as there’s only one category among the sixteen we play with that they’re above average in, and that’s saves. As a result, I considered Melancon and Ottavino to be almost worthless, especially with Melancon’s declining velocity and multiple blowups and Ottavino’s short track record and little job security. I’ve long considered Kinsler to among the best fantasy second basemen in the game with huge counting stats in Detroit’s lineup, and last year, Dickerson had an impressive breakout season and played in Coors Field. I liked Martin a lot this year, with the move to a loaded lineup and a hitters park, but I didn’t think he was enough to even the gap between the two sides.
Accuracy: Another mixed bag. Ottavino didn’t keep the job for long, as I predicted, but it was because of a season-ending injury, not because he sucked. Melancon has turned it around but his velocity hasn’t improved so he’s still a ticking time bomb. Martin has been very good so far this year and looks to be an elite catcher. Dickerson continued to be very good, but he went down with plantar fasclitis a few weeks ago and has been out ever since. There’s no timetable for his return. Lastly, Kinsler has been mildly disappointing but still a starting-caliber 2B.
Current Assessment: As of now, against all odds, the team that got Martin is winning, ever so slightly, but once Dickerson comes back and Kinsler turns it around, the trade should shift back in the other team’s favor.