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Sushi’s Week 3 Picks

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Well, that didn’t work out too well. Armed with lessons from my 7-8-1 Week 1, I managed to get an amazing score of… 6-10. Ugh. Let’s see if we can do any better this week.

As always, the home team is in caps. Let’s get to the picks.

ATLANTA -6.5 over Tampa Bay

This section was written Wednesday

The Falcons are a surprisingly good team this year. I mean, they were expected to be better than last year but that’s not saying much as they went 4-12.

However, they’re a much better team than Tampa Bay and they should roll in this game. Hopefully Matty Ice will throw for five touchdowns and 400 yards as I’m starting him in fantasy.

San Diego +2.5 over BUFFALO

I don’t like this game. It’s generally wise to pick the better QB in a tossup, meaning that I’d go with Philip Rivers and the Chargers. However, I feel like there might be something special brewing in Buffalo. I mean, they upset the Bears in Chicago and dominated the Dolphins last week at home. Emotions are running high after the dedication of their newest stadium and the fact that the new owners in Buffalo have vowed to keep the Bills in Buffalo. Still, for at least one more week, I’ll have to go against Buffalo. If they destroy San Diego then I’m rolling with them until the playoffs.

Dallas -1 over ST. LOUIS

I’m amazed at how low this line is. Don’t they realize that Zac Stacy might be this year’s Trent Richardson 3.0., the highly touted running back who sucks? Don’t they realize that their vaunted defense hasn’t been particularly great so far this year? Don’t they realize that they’re either starting an injured Shaun Hill or Austin Freaking Davis?!?!?!? Well, luckily, I do. Cowboys are winning this week. Lock it down.

PHILADELPHIA -6 over Washington

Unfortunately, I couldn’t retroactively make the Thursday night game my blowout of the week so I’ll do it here instead. This game is my blowout of the week, sponsored by Derrick Rose, for obvious reasons.

The Eagles should dominate the WPFT with ease. The only thing that could stop them from rolling is the Ewing Theory (explained here at http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?id=1193711). Kirk Cousins is the better fit for Jay Gruden’s offense and might actually be better than RGIII. However, I’m not willing to bet on him until I see at least one week of him being good.

Houston -1.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS

Let’s play this column’s favorite dumb game, Would You Bet Your Life On?

In this week’s edition of Would You Bet Your Life On?, we bring you this game.

Would you bet your life on…

  1. New York’s ramshackle offensive line or…
  2. JJ Watt

Case closed.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Minnesota

I’m never going against the Saints at home. They’re a different team when they’re at home and when they’re on the road. Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham at home against the Adrian Beat-His-Son-less Vikings? This is my second blowout of the week, except that this time it’ll be sponsored by Adrian Beat-His-Son’s knee instead of D-Rose’s.

CINCINATTI -7 over Tennessee

Is it possible that the Bengals are somehow the second best team in the AFC? Before laughing, think about it for a second. Obviously the Broncos are better, but who else can compete with them? The Colts and Pats are the first names that come to mind but are we really sure they’re all that good? I mean, the Colts are 0-2 (albeit with losses to two good teams) and the Pats are 1-1 with a bad loss to a Miami team that just got blown out in Buffalo. Sure, they’ll make the playoffs but I don’t think that they’re particularly good. Of course, this speaks more to the quality of the AFC rather than the quality of the Bengals. In the NFC, Cincinnati would be in the 4-7 range, depending on how you feel about the Niners, Bears, Eagles, and Falcons.

CLEVELAND +1.5 over Baltimore

Sometimes you’ve just got to stick to your guns. This year I really like the Browns, Saints, Cowboys, and Bears compared to how most people view them. I hate the Chiefs, Titans, Ravens, Steelers, and the WPFT. Through the first few weeks, before anything has happened for long enough to be statistically meaningful, you’ve got to go with your gut and that’s exactly what I’m doing with this game. I hate the Ravens and love the Browns and until something happens to prove me wrong, I’m going with my gut feeling.

Green Bay +2.5 over DETROIT

The Lions might be a half-decent team after all. They’ve gotten rid of Jim Schwartz (that’s enough to swing a few games) and have a very good offense. However, under no circumstances should they EVER be giving points to Green Bay. Even at home. Even if Megatron turns into an actual robot. The only time it might be okay is if Aaron Rodgers ditches football to become a full time advocate for State Farm.

Indianapolis -7 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jags let up ten sacks last week. TEN! That’s unbelievable! At this point, I’d bet that Chad Henne wants to lose the job to Bortles to spare himself the incessant beatings he’s endured. Of course, my three year old brother could step in and be the Colts’ best pass rusher so the question is whether or not Indy can take advantage. If they can’t, which is a distinct possibility, then the game might be closer than it would have been otherwise. However, that’s the difference between a 21 point obliteration and a 14 point blowout so it won’t matter too much.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Oakland

I’m not sure how much I like the Patriots. However, I know I don’t like the Raiders. Also it’s a 1 pm game. On the East Coast. And it’s the Raiders. No contest.

ARIZONA +3 over San Francisco

Just like in the New England-Oakland game, I don’t know how much I like the Cards this year but I know for a fact that I don’t like the 49ers.

Also, is anyone even that sure that Colin Kaepernick is actually good? He had two or three good games in the playoffs (most memorably that whupping against the Packers) but he hasn’t been the amazing QB he’s been made out to be. I’m not saying that he’s a bad QB. Rather, San Francisco is lucky to have a QB that’s pretty good as half the league doesn’t even have that, but all I’m saying is that Kaep might not be as great as we all think.

Fantasy question about the Niners: do you think that we’ll be allowed to use San Francisco player’s attorneys as our starting defense soon? I hope so. They and their clients certainly are racking up the points… on their driving license

SEATTLE -5 over Denver

Who knows? This game has so many separate story lines that it’s tough to figure them all out. Is it Manning’s revenge game or does Seattle have Denver’s number? Is it Denver’s offense or Seattle’s defense. Honestly, I have no idea. However, here’s another betting rule: when in doubt, go with the 12th Man, and that’s what I’m doing here.

MIAMI -4 over Kansas City

Yeah, I totally want the injury ravaged, Jamaal Charles-less Chiefs instead of the half-decent looking Dolphins. Yup, totally. And while I go make this bet, I’ll also go spend 500$ to buy 100$ and I’ll hire Isaiah Thomas to run my fantasy football team.

CAROLINA -3 over Pittsburgh

Somehow the Steelers have forgotten what made them great for the past decade: defense. That’s sometimes okay because of their star-studded offense, but what happens when a good defense shuts them down? They lose badly, like last week’s 26-6 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens. And the Ravens aren’t even good! Now they’re going up against a genuinely good defense on the road? No thanks.

Chicago +3 over NEW YORK JETS

Yes, this game is the long awaited Upset Pick of the Week, sponsored by Taco Bell because of what their food will do to your stomach. I don’t understand this line. Yes, the Jets looked really good last week on the road against Green Bay. Didn’t Chicago go on the road last against a tough (at least for now) team and win? The Jets have no secondary whatsoever while the Bears have two freaks of nature in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Again, this makes no sense.

Hope you enjoyed. If you liked this article, please share the link to this page on social media with all your friends. It would help a lot. Thanks in advance for your help and support.

This week: 1-0-0

Last week: 6-10-0

Season: 13-18-1

Sushi’s Week 2 Picks

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Well that didn’t go well. In the inaugural version of “Sushi’s Picks” I pretty much crashed and burned. I went 7-8-1. *braces for cries of “You said you knew sports!”* *wipes rotten tomato off face*

Yeah, I know I did pretty badly, but maybe I’ll do better this week. Maybe…

By the way, the threshold for betting to make a profit gambling is making 55% of your bets. Why not 51%? Well, on bet the casino takes a vig, generally of 10% that ensures that it makes money on every bet. Generally any bet with a line is at -110 odds (for a long explanation of what that means along with other betting terms read https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2014/08/12/the-nfl-gambling-preview/) meaning that you’ve got to bet 110$ to win 100$. The casino’s goal is to make the betting come down evenly on each bet so that for every 100$ they shell out to a winning better, they win 110$ from an unlucky loser, for a 10$ profit. That means that if you win 51% of your bets, then you’d lose money, because every 100 bets you’d win 5100$ (51 wins multiplied by 100$) but lose 5390$ (49 losses multiplied by 110$). To come out ahead you have to win 55% of the time.

Anyways, that long explanation was pretty much just to say that I’m aiming to get 55% of my picks right, because that means that I’ll be better than average because average people are why bookies drive around in Ferraris.

Anyways, let’s get to the Week 2 picks.

(Home team in caps)

Pittsburgh +2.5 over BALTIMORE

This section was written on Wednesday

Honestly, I have no idea to make of these two teams. Pittsburgh has historically been an elite defense (for those of you over 40, remember the Steel Curtain?) supported by an offense that does just enough to win. Now, the elite defenders behind Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl wins in 2005 and 2009 and their runner-up finish in 2011, such as Troy Polamalu, James Farrior, Larry Foote, James Harrison, and Ike Taylor, are all either ineffective or gone. Now, the offense is the strength of the team, led by Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Markus Wheaton. Indicative of this new reality, the Steelers won last week’s game in a shootout, 30-27.

The Ravens’ vaunted defense is also no longer elite, but unlike Pittsburgh, their offense is still pretty bad. Between Ray Rice being released and Bernard Pierce being benched for fumbling, their running game is left in the hands of Justin Forsett (who’s the namesake of my fantasy team) and Lorenzo Taliaferro. Their passing offense is awful, led by Joe Flacco who continues to throw deep despite sucking.

Anyways, although I don’t like either of these teams this year, I think Pittsburgh is less bad so I suppose I’ll take them.

Miami PK over BUFFALO

This line was a PK a couple of days ago before it moved to one. I’ll explain what that means in the Giants-Cardinals section later on, but it’s very interesting.

Miami is superior to Buffalo in every facet of the game from QB to DB, save the lone exception of pass rushing. I’m happy to go with the Dolphins here.

Jacksonville +6 over WASHINGTON

Is it possible that we’ve all been severely underrating the Jaguars? I mean, they were frisky last week against the Eagles, taking a 17-0 lead at the half before Philadelphia ÅWcontender for the number one overall pick next year any more and they might even be just a regular run of the mill bad team (baby steps, people). Anyways, I like them a lot more than the WPFT (Washington Professional Football Team as I’m not calling them the R*dskins) and I’m more than willing to grab the points.

Dallas +3.5 over TENNESSEE

I don’t like Tennessee at all. I feel like they took advantage of a dumb Andy Reid who decided to give Jamaal Charles, his only good offensive player, only SEVEN carries (along with four receptions). That’s absolutely crazy!!!! I suppose you can’t expect much better from Reid though. However, the Cowboys don’t have the same coaching catastrophe as the Chiefs… Well, actually, Jason Garrett’s probably worse.

Here’s a better reason to bet on Dallas: they’ve got a couple of offensive superstars and Tony Romo bounces back after bad games. I suppose I can’t really explain why I kind of like Dallas this year. I mean, by any reasonable calculation, Dallas has a horrendous defense and a very good offense, but that generally results in a bad finish. I suppose I like them to keep things close nearly every week which makes it good for me to take the points when betting on them.

I’ve got this gut feeling about the Cowboys this year and I’ll keep going with them until I finally make it a rule to never bet on the trio of Jerry Jones, Garrett, and Romo.

Arizona -2.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS

Interestingly enough, this line started out at New York -2 before moving all the way to Cards -2.5. What does this mean? It means that the Arizona side was bet so heavily that the casinos had to move the line to try and make the bets come down 50-50 on each side. Lines will often move a half point or so throughout the week, but I’ve never seen a line move as much as this one.

Anyways, I like the Cardinals a bit this year, but I don’t think the Giants will be good at all making this a bet I like this week.

New England -3 over MINNESOTA

Minnesota is a sneaky-good team this year. They’ll stay competitive in many games with their defense headed by Mike Zimmer and the offense led by Norv Turner. Of course, New England lost last week. Under the Belichick-Brady duo, after a loss, the Pats almost always win. I’ve got to go with New England this week as there’s no way they’re starting off 0-2.

New Orleans -6.5 over CLEVELAND

I love New Orleans this year. I love their defense under Rob Ryan. I love their offense with a ton of playmakers under Sean Payton and Drew Brees. They’re good enough in my eyes that I picked them to emerge from the NFC gauntlet.

I’m also higher than most on the Browns. I think they’re an underrated team that could do well this year. However, against the Saints? I don’t think so.

Atlanta +5.5 over CINCINNATI

I have no idea what to pick with this game. I think the Bengals are better than the Falcons but I can’t put my finger on exactly how much. I suppose I’m hoping for a competitive game that the Bengals win with a last second field goal or else a Cincinnati domination that Atlanta barely manages to cover with a garbage time TD.

Detroit +3 over CAROLINA

Gee, do I want the team with a nonexistent offensive line against the fearsome defensive line of the Lions? Do I want the team who’ll either start a banged-up QB or Derek Anderson? Do I want the team that lost 75% of last year’s starting secondary going up against Megatron and Co.?

Yeah, that’s what I thought.

In the Taco Bell upset of the week (named for what Taco Bell’s food will do to your stomach) I think Detroit will prevail against Carolina. By the way, last week’s Taco Bell upset pick was correct—I picked the Bengals to beat the Ravens despite being a two point underdog. Maybe I’m not so bad after all!

TAMPA BAY -5.5 over St. Louis

…Or yes I am. I picked St. Louis to smash the Vikings, saying that picking Matt Cassel on the road against a good D-line was incredibly stupid, although I DID say that there was a 79.3% chance that those words would come back to haunt me.

Anyways, St. Louis’ first QB, Sam Bradford, went down with an injury before the season. Then Bradford’s backup, Shaun Hill, went down with an injury in Week 1. Now they’re starting Austin Davis. That automatically disqualifies me from betting on them (especially this week) unless the spread is over 35. That’s one of my rules of betting: never bet on a backup’s backup’s backup playing on the road against a good defense. Even Josh McCown is better than… Well, maybe not. But Tampa Bay has enough of an advantage elsewhere, especially at the skill positions, that they should be able to win this game.

Side note: My bet in the Sushi on Sports NFL Gambling Preview (https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2014/08/12/the-nfl-gambling-preview/) on St. Louis under 7.5 wins is looking better and better.

Second side note: This is somehow the first home team that I’ve picked this week. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.

Seattle -6 over SAN DIEGO

Seattle beat a bona fide Super Bowl contender by twenty points. Translation: I’m not going against the defending champions until they play Denver. At that point, all that matters is the line.

San Diego played sloppily last week against Arizona and were lucky to only lose by a point. San Diego is a pretty good team and I think they’ll win nine to eleven games this year, but they’ve got no shot against the Seahawks.

Houston -3 over OAKLAND

Let’s try this week for a more successful version of everybody’s favorite gambling game (outside of the betting itself): Would You Bet Your Life On? *cue audience cheering and game show music*

Would you bet your life on…

  1. Derek Carr and his ramshackle line or…
  2. JJ Watt

I’m not going to make a joke insulting Carr because we all saw what happened last week when I insulted Matt Cassel.

GREEN BAY -8.5 over New York Jets

They could not make this line too high for me. In fact, let’s make this game this week’s Derrick Rose Blowout of the Week, named for what Derrick Rose did to his knee. We could also name it for Adrian Peterson, but that would imply that this game recovers in half the expected time before having a completely unprecedented career season. I’m not sure how to apply that to this game but you get the gist.

DENVER -12 over Kansas City

I don’t know about this game. Denver is a ton better than Kansas City but I’m concerned about the huge nature of this line and the risk of a garbage time cover is looming. Still, as with the Seahawks, I’m riding with the Broncos until they prove me wrong.

Chicago +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO

This is a classic overreaction game in which everyone goes crazy because of an amazing (San Fran) or crappy (Chicago) performance the week before. Keep in mind that the Niners faced a self-destructing Tony Romo (who also destroyed my fantasy team—he scored 12 points for me after I started him over Matt Ryan who scored 31 and I lost my matchup by 1 point with the third highest score in my twelve team league) and the Bears lost Alshon Jeffery and to a Bills team that might be better than we all think. Also, there’s a 43.9% chance that Jay Cutler goes crazy and wins the game for the Bears. Of course, there’s also a decent chance that Cutler cutlers and throws the game away but let’s not think about that.

Philadelphia +3 over INDIANAPOLIS

I like the Eagles a lot this year. (Get ready for a crazy-long run-on sentence) I think that Chip Kelly is a great coach and that he can mold his scheme to fit his personnel and that injuries won’t affect his teams so much because if someone gets injured then he can just plug the next guy into the injured player’s spot and get the same results. *takes deep breath*

Also, other than Andrew the Giant, the Colts have got nothing. I think that Indy’s gonna be a lot worse this year than people think. I’m pleased to take the Eagles along with three points and, in fact, I think they’ll win outright.

By the way, I’ve only picked three home teams out of sixteen to cover. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Actually, knowing me, it’s probably the latter. I can’t wait for Sunday to see exactly how badly I did. Enjoy football this Sunday folks.

This Week: 0-1-0

Last Week: 7-8-1

Overall: 7-9-1

Sushi’s Week 1 Picks

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As promised, I’ll be writing an article a week picking that week’s football games against the spread. Of course, I also promised that I’d write an NFL Preview but let’s not talk about that.

In lieu of a comprehensive four-thousand word NFL Preview, I’ll spend eighty words doing a half-assed job of it. Running through division leaders, I like the Pats, Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Eagles, Saints, Packers, and Seahawks with the Wild Cards being the Chargers and Dolphins in the AFC and San Fran (barely squeaking in) and Chicago in the NFC. I think Denver will make it to the Super Bowl against either New Orleans or Seattle, whichever one manages to get home-field advantage in the NFC. Since Seattle has a tougher schedule, I pick a Broncos-Saints Super Bowl, which I predict the Broncos will win.

Let’s get started with the Week 1 picks. Remember, each pick is against the spread. The home team is in caps.

SEATTLE -5.5 over Green Bay

This paragraph was written on Wednesday, the day before this game.

Super Bowl champs, playing at home, fired up and ready to defend their title and only giving six? Count me in! Yeah, I suppose Green Bay has a very good team and they’ve got Aaron Rodgers, but how are they supposed to compete with the Hawks, on their turf, on opening night?

I like Green Bay a lot this year, with Aaron Rodgers and the passing game, by and large Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, finally being supported by a strong running game in Eddie Lacy. I like them a lot, just not enough to defeat Seattle, even when getting 5.5 points.

New Orleans -3 over ATLANTA

Yes, Atlanta was wracked by injuries last year. Yes, Atlanta is now healthy. Yes, Atlanta now has Julio Jones and a full strength Roddy White. Yes, Atlanta will be better than last year.

However, this line seems to have overcorrected. While the Falcons got much better by merely getting back their injured stars, they also lost Tony Gonzalez, the future Hall of Fame tight end. This is all without mentioning the improvements that the Saints made. They traded up to draft Brandin Cooks, a wide receiver, in the first round. He’s been great this preseason and in camp, and while we all know that the preseason isn’t a good indicator of future success, he has gotten praise from Drew Brees which speaks to Cooks’ ability. In addition, Rob Ryan has gotten another toy to play with in Jairus Byrd, the star free safety signed away from Buffalo so their underrated defense should get even better.

There’s not even cold weather to mess with the Saints. The line should be higher than it is, but I’ll happily take New Orleans.

ST. LOUIS -3.5 over Minnesota

Let’s play a betting game I like to call Would You Bet Your Life On?

In this week’s edition of Would You Bet Your Life On? the question is:

Would you bet your life on…

  1. A fearsome defensive team at home giving only three points or…
  2. A team starting Matt Cassel (which in itself is enough) facing the aforementioned intimidating D-line?

If you want to bet your life on the shaky right arm of Matt Cassel then the real question is whether you’d like to die by lethal injection or by firing squad.

And by the way, there’s a 79.3% chance that Cassel leads a comeback win over the Rams causing me to lose whatever credibility I may have built up after my successful “Germany wins the World Cup” prediction.

Cleveland +6.5 over PITTSBURGH

Is it just me or does Cleveland seem like this year’s early favorite for the Sneaky Good Team, as the team that doesn’t necessarily have a great record but is surprisingly good and plays everyone close? (For reference, last year’s winner was the Rams.) I mean, they’ve got a top 5 corner in Joe Haden to shut down the opposing number one receiver, a pretty good defense overall, and a not-too-bad offense. Hamstrung by their offense, it’s unlikely they’ll win much, but their defense will at the very least keep things close.

That defense, against their overrated opponent, will make sure, if they don’t win outright, that at the very least they’ll cover the spread.

PHILADELPHIA -10.5 over Jacksonville

Let’s see, do I take a high-octane offense playing at home against a weak defense or the team starting Chad Henne? Hmmmm….

By the way, I’m all in on this game. In my main fantasy league I’m streaming both the Eagles’ defense and their kicker, Cody Parkey. Here’s to a 42-7 point old-fashioned ass-whupping by the Eagles!

NEW YORK JETS -5 over Oakland

New York’s intimidating run defense will swallow up MJD and Darren McFadden alive. Their impressive D-line (probably the second best in the league behind the Rams) should get after Carr enough to mask their deficiencies in the secondary. Last year’s horrendous offense should be improved with the Decker and Johnson signings, and again, Oakland isn’t good enough to stop even the Jets’ feeble offense.

Against superior teams to the Raiders (pretty much every team in the league) the Jets won’t be able to do much at all, but in this matchup, a 1:00 game on the East Coast, the Jets should roll.

Cincinnati +2 over BALTIMORE

This line mystifies me. The Bengals are superior to the Ravens in every single facet of the game. The only non-special teams position that isn’t clearly in Cincinnati’s favor is at QB, and even so, I’d rather have Dalton than Flacco this year.

Yes, the game is in Baltimore, but even so, having home field advantage is only an extra three points in your favor. I can’t believe that the Bengals are only considered to be a single point better than the Ravens at a neutral site. That makes this pick pretty easy for me.

This, by the way, is my Taco Bell Upset Pick of the Week, named in honor of what Taco Bell’s food will do to your stomach.

CHICAGO -7 over Buffalo

The Bears will have a top 3 offense, along with the Saints and Broncos. That’s one of my big predictions this the year. They’ve got Trestman running the show, Cutler’s healthy (for now), their offense has Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Santonio Holmes, and Martellus Bennett. That’s two superstars (Forte, Marshall), three studs (Jeffery, Trestman, Cutler), and two above average players for their position (Holmes, Bennett).

Last year, the Bills’ defense was criminally underrated. This year, it’s lost much of its luster. They’ve lost two important players off of last year’s squad in linebacker Kiko Alonso, who’s out for the year after an injury, and free safety Jairus Byrd, who went to New Orleans through free agency.

The Bears should smash through the Bills this game. Buffalo has no one to cover Marshall or Jeffery and their weak offense won’t be able to attack Chicago’s defense.

HOUSTON -3 over Washington

The Washington Professional Football Team (which will henceforth be known as the WPFT) is boom or bust this year. Their defense is okay, nothing special. Their offense has the potential to be a top 5 unit or a bottom 5 mess.

The WPFT has acquired a number of players to help RGIII shine on offense. Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Alfred Morris, and Jordan Reed all combine to form a formidable passing attack. However, they need someone to throw them the ball. If RGIII is hurt or ineffective, the WPFT will have to turn to Kirk Cousins, who, while he’s a good backup, is almost certainly not starting material.

Also, I’m looking forward to watching Jadeveon Clowney and JJ Watt in action. Not so much Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the WPFT’s defense isn’t good enough to properly take advantage of Fitzpatrick’s shortcomings.

KANSAS CITY -4 over Tennessee

Last year, Kansas City was the league’s Good-Bad team, meaning that they beat all the bad teams and lost to all the good ones. The only good team they beat last year that I can recall offhand was the Colts, 20-6, in Week 16.

Luckily for the Chiefs, the Titans aren’t a good team so they’re in good shape.

NEW ENGLAND -5 over Miami

Gronk is back! Gronk is back! Gronk is back! Gronk is back!

Seriously though, who are the Dolphins gonna use to cover Gronk? Dannell Ellerbee. Yeah, that seems likely…

For both my fantasy team’s sake and Tom Brady’s, GRONK IS BACK!!!! WOOHOO!!!!

TAMPA BAY -2.5 over Carolina

I was a little surprised at this line when I saw it. Last year’s Tampa Bay Staph Infections were favored at home against the 12-4 breakout team of the year! Then I thought about it a little and was kinda like “Huh”. Surprisingly, this line is actually quite reasonable.

Lovie Smith, the defensive guru, is now Tampa Bay’s head coach. He’s got a bunch of skilled players with which to mold his defense from Gerald McCoy to Lavonte David to Alterraun Verner. Now he faces the Panthers’ crappy offense, with a hurt QB who’s not going to run (which is his biggest skill), poor wide receivers, and a nonexistent line.

Carolina’s defense isn’t anywhere near as good as it was last year after losing three out of the four starters in their secondary, so they won’t be able to take advantage of Josh “The career backup who somehow parlayed a half season of playing unsustainably well into a starting job and a new contract” McCown and the rest of the Buccaneer’s offense.

DALLAS +4.5 over San Francisco

Dallas’ defense is nonexistent. They’ve lost players to injury, to free agency, and they’re hamstrung by cap concerns so they’re unable to sign any good new players.

Scott Linehan is their new offensive coordinator and he throws a ton. Also, they’re going to have to score to keep up with their horrendous defense, leading to more passing. Luckily, their offense is well built to account for that defense. Their O-line, led by Tyron Smith, is great, and should give DeMarco Murray a chance to run. They’ll also keep Tony Romo upright so he can throw to Dez Bryant. The Cowboys won’t be good this year per se, but they’ll stay in games, and will be able to steal a few. Anyways, the Cowboys are great at the two most important things in football: they’re gonna be fun to watch because of their high-scoring games, and because of their prolific offense and horrible defense, they’ll likely be the team that swings the most fantasy matchups (including mine as I’m starting Tony Romo and my opponent is starting the 49ers D/ST).

However, I don’t like San Francisco at all this year. Their defense is overrated after the defections in their secondary, the suspension of Aldon Smith, the injury to NaVorro Bowman, and the increasing age of Justin Smith and Patrick Willis. Their offense is okay, but nothing special. I think they’ll squeak into the playoffs, but barely.

Anyways, in this game, Dallas, even if they don’t win outright, should keep it close enough to cover the spread.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis

The .5 scares me. I can’t lie. It’s the difference between getting your money back from the casino if Denver wins by a touchdown and losing it all. While we’re here, the two most important milestones in football lines are 3 and 7, as those are the most common margins of victory.

Still, I think Denver will mash Indianapolis. If you look at the Colts, their whole team is bad other than Andrew Luck. Only Luck (and luck) prevented the Colts from being a crappy team the past two years. The Broncos, on the other hand, upgraded their defense a ton this offseason with the acquisitions of TJ Ward, DeMarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib, and their offense is still great, even if it’s not necessarily going to be the unstoppable force it was last year.

The scary thing is that Denver might even be a little underrated this year, if that’s possible for the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Also, an important lesson for a fledgling bettor to know is to never bet against Peyton Manning in a night game. Would you like to take the “unless it’s in the playoffs” joke, or should I?

DETROIT -6 over New York Giants

Can anyone cover Calvin Johnson? A double or triple team usually can (although not always (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8tCdCWB1LM), which is why Johnson is probably not quite reaching his immense potential stats-wise. Now he finally has the opportunity to dominate because of his teammates finally being able to take some defensive attention off him. Instead of the likes of Nate Burleson lining up opposite him, he’s now got big free agent signing, wide receiver, Golden Tate, and first round pick Eric Ebron, a tight end, playing with him, along with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell.

Of course, that whole last paragraph is irrelevant in this game. The Giants have a bad defense and won’t be able to stop Matt Stafford and Co.

San Diego +3 over ARIZONA

Arizona’s impressive defense of last year is no longer as spectacular after defections and injuries. San Diego’s defense was never good in the first place.

The Cardinals’ offense is improving. Their offensive line could finally be more than a turnstile, and they’ve got three good receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. Their rushing attack is led by Andre Ellington and Carson Palmer hasn’t been too bad on the downside of his career.

The Chargers have a three-headed committee and running back between Ryan Matthews, Donald Brown, and Danny Woodhead. They’ve got Keenan Allen leading the pass attack and a couple of good tight ends in Ladarius Green and Antonio Gates.

Based on talent alone, Arizona has a slight edge over San Diego. However, as far as I can tell, they’re more or less equal, leading me to take the points as the deciding factor.

Or maybe I should take the Cards with Peterson. Or the Chargers with Rivers. Or ‘Zona with Mathieu. Or San Diego with… You know what? I think I’m just gonna end this article before I go crazy trying to figure this game out.

Last Week: 0-0-0

This Week: 1-0-0

Total: 1-0-0

The NFL Gambling Preview

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The NFL season is coming up soon. Woohoo! With that American pastime coming up, let’s take a look at another one of our favorite things to do: gambling.

Now, most of you are probably aware of game lines, (i.e. Team X -7) but although you can bet on individual games at this point, it’s a crapshoot for the most part because the games are too far away.

Luckily, before the season starts, you can bet on bets called “Futures Bets”.

Note for people who know all this stuff already (either geniuses or degenerate gamblers): the next paragraph is just explaining about betting so you can skip it if you want to.

What are futures bets? I’m glad you asked. Futures bets, as the name implies, are bets on the future (I’m happy I could clear that up for you). Specifically, you bet on something to happen far in the future. Also, futures bets aren’t on specific games, but on overall events. A future bet wouldn’t be predicting the Jets to win a game in Week 17, but picking the Jets to make the playoffs would be.

As an example of futures bets in practice, some of my regular readers might remember that I mentioned a few weeks ago that if I had followed my hunch on Germany before the World Cup, a futures bet on them to win the World Cup would pay out something like 1100$ for a 200$ bet. Another example is betting on the, let’s say, the Athletics to win the World Series. Again, you’re gambling on something for the future.

Okay gamblers (and geniuses)! Come back for this paragraph!

So we’re going to go through the best futures bets that are available right now. For the fun of it, let’s pretend I’ve got 2500$ with which to make bets (I end up using 2320$ of my allotment). At the end of the season we can check back with these picks to see how much money I would’ve lost and what lessons we can learn from my failures (other than the fact that I’m an idiot).

Just so you know, in the third to last paragraph of this column, there’s information on a football games picking pool for Sushi on Sports, if you want to check it out before reading the rest of the article.

(All lines are according to Bovada. All lines are accurate as of the writing of this article.)

Let’s start with a sample bet, just to show you how it works:

Kansas City Chiefs: 8 wins

Over: +105

Under: +135

Now that we have this sample line let’s take each part step by step.

The first part says that the over/under win total for the Chiefs is 8 wins. The next two lines show the odds on each bet. Let’s say I bet the under. If the Chiefs win more than 8 games, I lose. If they win less than 8 games, I win. If they win exactly 8 games, it’s a push, and the casino would give me my money back.

The numbers next to over and under refer to the odds on the bet. It’s pretty simple. The odds refer to a bet of 100$. If you bet the over, you’d bet 100$ to win 105$, because of the plus sign in front of the 105. If you bet the under, because of the minus sign, you’d have to put 135$ to win 100$. Not too hard, huh? With that, let’s get started!

Oakland Raiders

UNDER 5 wins: +105

500$ to win 525$

The logic is simple here: the Raiders have a crappy team, are stuck in a division with three good teams, and they play the NFC West this year. Then the casino gives you +105 odds to take them? Count me in. This, for me, is one of the easiest bets of the year, which is why I’m betting a lot of my (admittedly, fake) money on them.

Saint Louis Rams

UNDER 7.5 wins: +120

150$ to win 180$

In almost any other division, I’d take the over, but in the NFC West, every team’s win total is pushed down by having four good teams in the division. Sam Bradford is shaky and usually gets injured, when combined with the odds of +120 makes this a pretty easy call.

Dallas Cowboys

OVER 7.5 wins: +105

100$ to win 105$

The Cowboys have gone 8-8 for the past three years and always seem to be competitive down the end of the season. The NFC East is always wide open and has a lot of parity, meaning that it’s more likely than not that the Cowboys will win about 7 to 9 games. If a couple of bounces go their way, then they win 8 or 9 games and I win my bet.

Detroit Lions

UNDER 8.5 wins: -125

125$ to win 100$

Let’s just put it this way: it’ll be a lot more fun to watch Detroit self-destruct when I’m winning money (albeit nonexistent) out of it.

Pittsburgh Steelers

UNDER 8.5 wins: +120

100$ to win 120$

Pittsburgh’s old, with a QB who always misses at least two games a year. In their division are three solid teams. The Steelers have been on a downward trend for a couple of years, now, and it’d be surprising if they turn it around.

Also, Pittsburgh has to be over .500 for me to lose this bet, something I find laughable. I suspect that this is an instance of where the public has shifted the lines. The Steelers are a recognizable brand with recent success, meaning that the public is more likely to bet in their favor. That much is clear; the over on this bet is all the way up to -150. Anyways, here’s a gambling rule of thumb: always go against the public. They’re the ones who let bookies drive expensive cars. Always go against the grain when gambling.

Green Bay Packers

OVER 10.5 wins: -115

115$ to win 100$

Put simply: as long as Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, they’ll be fine.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WILL make the playoffs: +400

50$ to win 200$

I like this bet for two reasons:

  1. The odds are great, especially for a wide-open division and
  2. The Buccos have a sneaky-good team, with a great defense and a decent offense.

See, gun to my head, I’d say that Tampa Bay won’t make the playoffs. However, gambling isn’t always about what you think is going to happen. Instead, it’s about finding value in bets. Let’s say Tampa Bay wins their division 25% of the time, an average projection. Then, let’s say that the Bucs win a wild card 10% of the time. That adds up to 35% for those of you out there who aren’t exactly math geniuses. Now, the odds of +400 say that Tampa Bay has 4:1 odds to make the playoffs, implying that the Buccaneers will make the playoffs 25% of the time. Well, 35%>25%, which means that we’ve found value in this bet. Now, you can quibble with the specific numbers (which were rough guesses), but the overarching idea is the same.

Quick side note: I wrote this section one day and then a couple of days later I checked back for the odds to see if they had changed. They had. The line on this bet was moved down from +400 to +350. What does that mean? Glad you asked. It means that the bettors are betting heavily on Tampa Bay, meaning that they need to adjust the lines in an attempt to spread the bet evenly on both sides in order to ensure a profit, or at the very least not a huge loss.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WILL win the NFC South: +550

100$ to win 550$

The biggest reasons are the same as before: a wide-open division and great value. Going back to the last section, the odds of +550 imply that Tampa Bay will win the division just over 18% of the time. That means that if the likelihood of the Bucs making the playoffs that we stated earlier was correct (or at least reasonably close), then we’ll have found value.

My secondary reasons are the strong defense led by Lavonte David and Lovie Smith and the offense filled with playmakers, although it’s led by a prime candidate for regression: Josh McCown.

By the way, you may be wondering why I didn’t bet on the Tampa Bay over/under for wins if I’m so confident in their ability. To answer the question you didn’t ask, the main reason why is because of the odds. For the making the playoffs and winning the NFC South bets, I feel like I’m getting good value. However, the over/under is 7 wins, which I don’t feel great about in the first place, but the line is -140 to take the over. Those odds are too steep for my taste, especially as I’m not exactly enamored with Tampa Bay.

Indianapolis Colts

WILL NOT make the playoffs: +175

40$ to win 70$

As with the bet on Tampa Bay, if pressed, I would pick Indy to make it to the playoffs. However, I think that there’s a decent shot they don’t, for two reasons:

  1. Houston will be rejuvenated and as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t suck, they’ll ride a great defense and a solid running game to a playoff spot. Now, the caveat of needing Ryan Fitzpatrick to not suck is a rather big one, but on the off chance that he’s half-decent, I want to be there to take advantage of it.
  2. The Colts have been incredibly good in one-touchdown games, going 14-2 over the last two years. Teams are expected to win 50% of one-touchdown games over the long run. No matter how much of Indy’s success in one-touchdown games you attribute to Andrew Luck, they’re due for some regression to the mean, which could push their record down a couple of games.
  3. Outside of Luck, the Colts are horrible. Their horrible-ness includes their offensive line which has done everything other than put out a welcome mat for marauding defensive ends to get past them to maul Luck. If Luck gets injured for any significant period of time, they’re screwed. Now, you might say something like “Oh, Luck isn’t injury-prone. He’ll be fine”. However, even QBs that are considered to be healthy can get hurt in the violent game of football (see: Rodgers, Aaron, 2013 season). If Luck gets hurt for six games, the Colts will not make the playoffs.

Overall, I think those two concerns combined are enough to make it a decent bet to gamble against the Colts making the playoffs. However, the odds aren’t that great which is why I’m not making this bet a very big one.

Philadelphia Eagles

WILL NOT make the playoffs: +120

100$ to win 120$

Here are five reasons why I don’t think the Eagles will make the playoffs:

  1. They lost their biggest offensive weapon (outside of LeSean McCoy) over the offseason when Washington signed DeSean Jackson.
  2. Nick Foles, owner of an impressive 27-2 TD/INT rate last season, is guaranteed to get worse, due to the Plexiglass Principle and regression to the mean. It took that superhuman effort to pull Philadelphia into the playoffs, an effort that’s unlikely to be repeated. When Foles gets worse (even if he’s still a good quarterback overall) the Eagles will have to have other players on their roster get better. With Jackson gone, that task gets harder and harder.
  3. They play the NFC West.
  4. The NFC East, as it usually is, is pretty much a tossup. All four teams are more or less equal. If a couple of bounces don’t go their way, Philadelphia won’t win the division, meaning that they’ll have to win a wild card to get into the playoffs but…
  5. The wild card race is STACKED. One of the two spots is going to the loser of the dogfight in the NFC West between San Francisco and Seattle. That leaves one spot for the other two teams in the NFC West, the loser of the Chicago/Green Bay battle for the NFC North, and the second place team of the NFC South. If they don’t win the division crown, Philadelphia has almost no shot at winning a wild card, making this a great bet for me.

Miami Dolphins

WILL make the playoffs: +250

200$ to win 500$

This is a pretty high confidence bet for me. If you look at the AFC, you’ll see that it’s very top heavy and after the two or three elite teams, it’s a scrum for the rest of the playoff spots. As far as I can tell, Denver will win their division, New England and Indianapolis almost certainly will, and… well, that’s it for guaranteed playoff participants in the AFC. That leaves three spots for the rest of the teams, although one is earmarked for the AFC North. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say that the Bengals win the AFC North. That means that four teams (Houston, San Diego, Kansas City, and Miami) are competing for the two wild card spots.

By the way, I’m counting out the rest of the teams because they’re either too old (Pittsburgh, Baltimore) inexperienced and counting on an unproven QB (New York, Buffalo, Cleveland), or because they just plain suck (Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland).

Anyways, of those four teams in realistic contention, let’s pick nits with each of them:

San Diego: Tough schedule, facing the NFC West and KC and Denver twice.

Kansas City: Ditto, except they (obviously) play San Diego twice instead of themselves.

Houston: Relying on an unreliable QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick) and are unlikely to rebound from last year by winning eight extra games that they’d need to win to go 10-6 to win a wild card.

Miami: Relying on a porous offensive line, had a negative point differential last year, are starting an unproven QB.

All of these concerns are valid and warranted, but I believe that Miami’s are more easily surmounted.

Cleveland Browns

WIN the AFC North: +500

20$ to win 100$

The Browns, along with Tampa Bay, are my two big sleepers for this year. I doubt that Cleveland ends up winning their division but I think they’re the second best team in the AFC North (behind Cincinnati) and the odds were too good to pass up.

Cincinnati Bengals

WIN the AFC: +1600

30$ to win 480$

Again, if I were betting my life, I’d bet on the Broncos to win the AFC, however, the Bengals offer the most appealing combination of good odds and a good team…

Denver Broncos

WIN the AFC: +225

200$ to win 450$

…But I might as well go with the almost sure thing too, just to cover my bases.

San Francisco 49ers

WIN the NFC: +450

100$ to win 450$

Seattle Seahawks

WIN the NFC: +375

100$ to win 375$

I know that it’s uninventive to pick the two best teams in the league to win the league, but the main tenet of gambling is that you’re just there to make money. There’s no need to be a hero by betting on the huge underdog. If you do that then you’re just throwing your money away. Here’s a good tip for life: don’t throw your money away.

Anyways, the road to the Super Bowl runs through the NFC West. Whichever team comes in first place in the division will have the upper hand and will be favored to advance to the Super Bowl. Because of the importance of the division title, the two games between Seattle and San Fran will be even more hard-fought than usual (if that’s possible). It’ll be like having an extra two playoff games.

However, while I’ll bet anything that it’s one of those two teams that represents the NFC in the Super Bowl, the question is which one. To eliminate that question, I bet on both. Now, it doesn’t matter who wins; I make money either way.

Denver Broncos

WIN the Super Bowl: +650

100$ to win 650$

Seattle Seahawks

WIN the Super Bowl: +700

100$ to win 700$

San Francisco 49ers

WIN the Super Bowl: +750

100$ to win 750$

As far as I can tell, there are three genuine Super Bowl contenders: Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver. I’m almost completely certain that the eventual Super Bowl winner will be one of those three teams. There are no underdogs this year that I like enough to back them for a Cinderella run. There’s little parity at the top; after the top three teams, there’s a steep drop off to teams like New England, Indianapolis, and Green Bay. I figure that one of my bets will hit, which means that I’ll win between 450$ and 550$.

For the player props I don’t really like any of the choices. I feel like player props are even more of a crapshoot than the other kinds of bets. However, for the sake of completeness, here are my favorite bets for each of the player props, which combine a chance at winning with good odds:. Just keep in mind that I’m not making these bets personally because I don’t think they’re very good, I just think that these are the best of the bunch. Anyways, here they are:
MVP: Matthew Stafford +2800

If he cuts down on his interceptions and his team has a good season, then he’ll have a decent shot at the MVP. The odds make this a good bet, though.

Most Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford +750

It’s either Stafford or Drew Brees for this (with Peyton Manning looming as a dark horse), except that Stafford’s odds are at +750 and Brees’ are at +275, making Stafford a decent value play.

Most Rushing Yards: C.J. Spiller +3300

In a bet like this one, you’re looking for an explosive back who’s indisputably the starter and who plays for a team that won’t be a throwing very much. Spiller checks all those boxes and has decent odds to boot.

Most Receiving Yards: Antonio Brown +2000

Checks the same boxes as Spiller: explosive, the clear number one on the depth chart with no close competitors on a team with a good quarterback who throws a lot.

I was also intrigued by A.J. Green (+1600), Larry Fitzgerald (+4000), and T.Y. Hilton (+4000) before ultimately deciding against them.

At the end of the season we’ll follow up on these bets and see what happened, where we went wrong, and what we did right.

The next NFL related article to come out on this site is probably going to be some massive NFL Preview. That’ll be out by the end of the month.

Throughout the football season, I’ll be keeping our betting tradition alive. Each week I’ll pick each game against the spread. At the end of the season we’ll tally up the score and see whether I know nothing about football or almost nothing about football.

Speaking of which, I’m starting a Pigskin Pick‘em tourney on ESPN for Sushi on Sports. If you’d like to join (so you can show me how much smarter you are than me), the name of the pool is “Sushi on Sports Pool”. The passcode is (inventively, I know) SushiOnSports. If you’d like to join, feel free. It should be a lot of fun.

Anyways, if you enjoyed this article, a great thing you could do is merely click follow (I think it’s on the right hand side) and to share the link to this site with your friends, family, coworkers, and random people on the street.

Thanks for your help and I hope you enjoyed the column!

 

 

NBA Free Agency Winners and Losers

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With the NBA free agency season winding down, I decided to stop procrastinating and to recap the ups and down of the hectic free agency period. What better way to do that than with a good old winners and losers column? Let’s start with the most obvious example.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Winners

Gee, I don’t know… They didn’t have that great of a summer. All they got was the best player alive, who, just by being in Cleveland:

  1. Immediately made them into title contenders and
  2. Made all of the valuable veterans chasing rings come to Cleveland

In addition to getting LeBron, they have a bunch of young, cheap, and valuable assets and could get Kevin Love.

As I said, not a particularly good July for the Cavs.

Sacramento Kings: Losers

What the hell are they doing??? Here are two facts that shed light on why the Kings have been consistently one of the worst teams in basketball for the last decade:

  1. They let their young, talented, restricted free agent point guard (Isaiah Thomas) leave for Phoenix so they could instead save money by picking up a career backup (Darren Collison) instead. How much did they save? About a million dollars per year for the next three years (and seven mil in the fourth year). They say they have some advanced stats that show that Collison is better than Thomas, but I, like most observers, am skeptical.
  2. They’re currently ducking the luxury tax line by just under a million dollars. That’s normally fine (for instance, the Thunder are also just under the luxury tax) but they’re spending a ton of money for a lottery team with no upside.

That seems like a loss to me.

Houston Rockets: Losers

Well, the Rockets are still in a good position for the future, with two stars in Howard and Harden, along with plenty of cap flexibility. They have the normal number of picks (the 1st rounder that they traded to the Lakers with Jeremy Lin is replaced by the 1st rounder they got from the Pelicans for Omer Asik) so they’re not completely screwed like the two New York teams, and they’ve got a top-notch GM who isn’t completely incompetent. Due to Houston’s positive long-term outlook, it’s strange to see them on the list as losers.

The reason why their summer wasn’t a success is due to their failed attempts at landing the upper tier free agents available. They dumped off Asik to New Orleans and Lin to Los Angeles to create cap space to sign free agents. That’s normally commendable, but when you miss out on the best free agents, you suddenly find yourself without two valuable rotation players.

Not only did the Rockets miss out on Melo and Chris Bosh, but they also decided not to keep Chandler Parsons. Their plan for free agency was to let Parsons go into restricted free agency, keeping his cap hold at about 2-3 million and to get rid of Lin and Asik, thereby creating enough cap space to sign a max level free agent. Subsequently, the plan was to sign a max level free agent while remaining under the cap. They would then be able to go over the cap to resign Parsons, giving them a big four of Harden, Howard, Parsons, and Bosh/Melo.
Of course, when Parsons signed an offer sheet with the Mavs, the Rockets only had three days to sign a free agent and then to resign Parsons. They were unable to do so, and then, at the end of the three-day waiting period, they simply let Parsons go.

To replace Parsons at the 3, Houston signed Trevor Ariza. Ariza is older than Parsons and is signed to a longer contract, although for less per year, meaning that Houston will have more cap space for additional free agent signings. Ariza, outside of the contract itself, is a good signing for Houston. He shoots 3s as well as Parsons and plays much better defense, which is especially important on a team with Harden, a defensive sieve. Still, he’s not Bosh, Melo, or even Parsons.

Houston came into this free agent period with high hopes, and left with less than they came in with. The team that suffered a first round playoff exit to Portland just got worse. That’s a pretty bad summer.

LeBron James: Winner

Let’s list the four biggest ways that LeBron won the summer, he:

  1. Goes home to Cleveland, erasing much of the pain from his brief defection in 2010
  2. Gets out of a deteriorating situation in Miami, where he would have been stuck with old and expensive teammates, where he would have had to carry his team every night (kinda like the late 2000s Cavs)
  3. Goes to the only place he could have gone to win titles without being branded a mercenary
  4. Gets a team where he either gets to play with a bunch of young stars who can save his legs, or with less young stars and Kevin Love, a top 10 player.

Not too shabby a summer for King James, huh?

Miami Heat: Losers           

Speaking of LBJ, the Heat had a bad summer. They lost the best player on the planet. That alone is enough to make a team a loser. However, outside of losing LeBron, the Heat actually had a surprisingly good summer.

They resigned Dwyane Wade to a more manageable contract. The kept Chris Bosh, who’ll become their new franchise player. If Bosh can keep up his defense while shouldering the offensive burden, the Heat will be in good shape.

In addition to the players they resigned, they also signed a few good free agents. They signed Luol Deng to replace LeBron (if anyone can truly do so) at the 3. They got Josh McRoberts, a 3-point-shooting, floor-spacing big man, who fits well with Miami’s offensive philosophy of passing, movement, and space. They also acquired Danny Granger, a veteran like the Heat have signed in years past, but, unlike those prior veterans, he’s (probably) not washed up.

Although the Heat lost LeBron, they had a pretty productive summer. However, next year they’ll almost certainly get worse after losing their best player and the strengthening of their in-conference rivals. That’s enough to make them losers.

Phoenix Suns: Winners

They are loaded. Perhaps not skill-wise, at least not yet, but there are really no teams out there that have a better long-term outlook than the Suns. You could make a case for the Hawks. You could make a case for the Sixers. But really, no team compares to the Suns.

Last year they won 48 games when they were trying to lose. Phoenix won with a young team that can only get better. They had four first round draft picks in this year’s draft. They aren’t hamstrung by cap concerns. The Suns can resign Eric Bledsoe and will still have max level cap space next summer. Even if they can’t sign a free agent, they can still trade for a star. They have a ton of young, cheap, and movable assets. For a team that’s pretty good already, adding a max level player would make them elite.

Still, that’s their long-term outlook. We’re only looking at this summer, though. They had one notable free agent acquisition, signing Isaiah Thomas away from Sacramento. In Phoenix’s two-point-guard offensive system, Thomas will be a good fit. However, one free agent signing is generally not enough to make a team a winner. In this case, though, it’s what the Suns don’t do (or at least don’t need to do) that makes them winners.

Originally, they offered Bledsoe 48 million over 4 years. Bledsoe turned them down. They moved on and signed Thomas for 4 years and about 27-28 million dollars. The advantage here is twofold. One, they get a cheaper replacement for Bledsoe. Two, they can afford to play hardball with Bledsoe, forcing him to accept less money to come back to Phoenix.

If Bledsoe comes back, great! They have another good player. If he doesn’t, that’s great, too! They have extra cap space to use to improve up and down their roster.

Now, if Phoenix hadn’t signed Thomas, they would have either lost Bledsoe or been forced to give him a cap-crippling contract that would mess up their cap space for years to come, just so they could keep together their core from last year.

The Thomas signing, because of all of these reasons, is one of the most underrated signings of free agency and is enough to make the Suns winners.

Indiana Pacers: Losers

The Pacers stagnated, not signing anyone of great import. However, they lost Lance Stephenson, a brutal blow.

Despite his antics, Stephenson was one of two players on Indiana last year (in addition to Paul George) who knew the definition of the word ‘score’. If you subtract him from a horrendous Indiana offense and don’t replace him with anyone good, that’s a combination for disaster.

Even the Pacers’ vaunted defense will be affected. Stephenson was a big part of the defense with his long arms and physical defense. He’s also valuable on defense because of his ability to guard the 3, in addition to his position at 2-guard.

Stephenson’s ability to create offense along with his flexibility on defense will be sorely missed in Indiana.

Indiana’s loss of Stephenson coupled with the gains other Eastern contenders made this offseason is enough to make them losers.

Charlotte Hornets: Winners

The Hornets (it feels weird calling them that) were the team that signed Stephenson away from the Pacers. It was a great signing for them. Their, at times, stagnant offense gets a big boost from adding someone who can make his own shot and (kinda like a linebacker) is able to bully his way to the rim for easy layups.

Steve Clifford’s defensive system gets another versatile, long-armed defender. Adding another elite defender to a team that was among the league leaders in defensive efficiency last season? That’s a recipe for a top-3 defense.

With an elite defense, a decent offense, and Lance Stephenson (not to mention an NBA great running the show), could Charlotte be turning into Indiana 2.0.? That potential is more than enough to make this a successful summer for Charlotte.

NBA Fans: Winners

We were the biggest winners of all. Let’s just quickly run through all the ways we won the summer. We got…

  1. Two weeks of nonstop excitement, constantly refreshing our Twitter feeds and ESPN to see if an important free agent had signed.
  2. To dream for the future, imagining our favorite team acquiring LBJ, Melo, Bosh, or whoever else.
  3. To see new teams rise, young teams get even better, and established teams get worse.
  4. To feverishly work out trade scenarios on the ESPN Trade Machine that’d net our team Kevin Love
  5. To watch a player make amends for one of the worst things to ever happen to a fan base in the history of sports

It’s been a helluva summer.

 

MLB Midseason Awards and Predictions

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The All Star Break is generally considered to be midway point of the MLB season. It’s weird because teams have already played anywhere from 91 games (Detroit) to 97 (Tampa Bay and the Dodgers). For those of you out there who aren’t exactly mathematicians, that’s more than halfway through the season. The mathematical midpoint of the season was a couple of weeks ago making it weird that people consider the season to be halfway over now, but if you think about how little sense this makes too long, you’ll get a headache, so let’s just move on.

The All Star Break is a good time to make predictions about the rest of the season. With the four day absence of baseball (the All Star Game doesn’t count), people are pretty desperate for anything related to actual baseball. Also, the sample size of nearly 100 games is large enough to extrapolate semi-meaningful information, making it easier to make logical and smart picks for the rest of the season.

Before you think that I’m just some idiot who doesn’t know how to make these predictions, I’d like to direct you to the two columns that I’ve written on here so far that deal with making picks. Here’s The World Cup Preview: https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/the-world-cup-preview/. In it, before the tournament started, I pick three of the final four teams correctly, I pick the winner correctly, I do reasonably well picking the order of finishers in each group, and I predict that Brazil will collapse against Germany in the semifinals. Here’s The Knockout Rounds Preview, in which I get 13 out of the 16 games correct in addition to doubling up on what I predicted before the tournament started: https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/the-knockout-rounds-preview/. Read through the articles; you might be entertained, but you’ll also see that I wasn’t too bad.

Now I’ll admit that the last 130 words were pretty much just an excuse for me to brag about my successes, but still, can’t I be proud? If I made a 200 dollar bet on Germany to win it all before the tournament started (if gambling were legal), that 200 dollar bet would have returned 1100 dollars (according to Bovada). Not a bad profit.

All this aside, I like to think that I’m capable of foreseeing a few things, especially something as (relatively) predictable as MLB.

We’ll swing through the division winners and wild cards and move on to the major award winners before finishing up with the playoff picks.

Something you might want to know before we get started: this column is really, really, really long. Don’t worry: I won’t be offended if you read part of it and come back later to read some more. Anyways, after that 430 word preamble, let’s get started!

AL East: Baltimore Orioles

This is easily the most wide open division in baseball. All five teams are still in it, and no one would be particularly surprised if one team pulled off an incredible second half to win the division. I’m going with the safest pick in the Orioles.

For one thing, they’re already in first place, giving them a cushion over the rest of the teams.

They’ve also got some great hitting. Adam Jones has been spectacular as always, Nelson Cruz is having a breakout season at 34 (PEDs, anyone?) and they’ve had a surprise contributor in Steve Pearce, who’s been very good since he was brought up. Even Chris Davis isn’t too bad, although he’s certainly not at the heights that he reached last season.

The biggest reason is that they’ve got the least noticeable flaws of anyone in their division. Their only problem is a slightly leaky rotation, stemming mostly from the struggles of their prized free agent, 50 million dollar man, Ubaldo Jimenez.

The Blue Jays have been struggling since their hot start to the season and have no consistency at almost any part of their roster. Edwin Encarnacion got injured and will be out for a few weeks. All they have to do is find another guy who has 26 homers and 70 RBIs through the All Star Break because, you know, those types of players grow on trees.

Boston’s been completely unable to hit.

The Rays are shaking off a slow start but are still in last place. It’s impossible to pick them because of the risk that Andrew Friedman decides to rebuild their farm system by trading away David Price (who’s had an incredible two months worth of starts) and Ben Zobrist.

New York’s been dealing with injuries everywhere, (no surprise as the average age of their 25 man roster is probably around 48) they have no infield, their prized free agents haven’t worked out, and the only one that did, Masashiro Tanaka, is on the DL for at least six weeks.

If Toronto adds a big name player through the trade market as they’ve been rumored to be trying to do, it could change the whole outlook of the race. Outside of that, there’s nothing else that could make the division change much. The Yankees have too many holes to fix and Boston can’t find seven quality hitters to replace everyone in their lineup other than Brock Holt and David Ortiz. Tampa Bay never adds payroll and, if they made a splash, it would be more likely that they trade away David Price rather than trading for reinforcements.

The decision to choose the Orioles to win the AL East doesn’t stem from confidence in them as much as the lack of any serious competition.

For the sake of completeness, at the end of each division, I’ll put down my picks for the rest of the division. For the AL East, I’ve got Tampa Bay, Toronto, Boston, then New York.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

Again, who’s going to compete with them? The Twins and White Sox are still rebuilding, they definitely can’t. Cleveland’s pitching has fallen apart outside of Corey Kluber. Kansas City can’t hit because of the hugely disappointing seasons from Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Norichika Aoki, and more. There are really no serious contenders other than the Tigers for the AL Central crown.

Detroit isn’t winning it almost by default like the Orioles are; rather, they have a very good team on their own.

Despite trading Doug Fister over the winter for 40 cents on the dollar (Fister has a sub-3.00 ERA this year for the Nationals) they have a deep pitching staff. Justin Verlander’s been a disappointment this year, but there’s potential for a comeback. Remember, Verlander won the MVP only three years ago, in 2011. They’ve got Rick Porcello, who had one of the strangest box scores in recent memory, with a complete game shutout with no walks and no strikeouts. Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer are both high strikeout pitchers with good ERAs. Even Drew Smyly, the guy who they gave Fister’s rotation spot to has been pretty good. That’s a pretty intimidating playoff rotation.

Their lineup is even better than their rotation. They’ve got Miguel Cabrera, looking to capture a third straight AL MVP, Victor Martinez, and Ian Kinsler. They’ve got a surprise star in JD Martinez who has absolutely mashed this year.

Overall, Detroit has such a deep team (outside of its shaky bullpen) that it’s impossible to go against them.

I think the rest of the division will go Kansas City, Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota.

AL West: Oakland Athletics

The best team in the majors got even better after trading for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel of the Cubs. Oakland’s rotation is so deep that despite having multiple injuries to starting pitchers, they had to send down a guy with a 3.55 ERA (Tommy Milone) because they didn’t have a spot for him in the rotation. That’s some serious depth.

Their lineup is loaded as well, with Josh Donaldson following last year’s breakout season with 20 homers and 65 RBIs so far this year and Brandon Moss having already hit 21 homers and knocked in 66 guys. They’ve got the best catching platoon in the game with Derek Norris (who should have started the All Star Game over both Matt Wieters and Salvador Perez) and John Jaso. Yoenis Cespedes, who just won his second consecutive Home Run Derby, bats third. Quite simply, the Athletics are loaded.

The best thing about Oakland is how deep they are. They’ve got good players up and down the roster, from 1 through 25. This depth makes them less susceptible to injuries.

The Angels and Mariners are both good teams, but none have the depth of the A’s. We’ll delve a little deeper into those two teams in about three or four paragraphs.

Texas and Houston are both garbage and inflate the win totals of the three teams lucky enough to be in the same division as them.

Anyways, Oakland’s easily the best team in the majors and should win their division.

After Oakland, I think it’ll be Los Angeles, Seattle, Houston, then Texas.

AL Wild Cards: 1. Los Angeles Angels (if you want to be picky) of Anaheim 2. Seattle Mariners

Most important question: why do the Angels feel the need to tack on “of Anaheim” to the end of the name? It sounds a little stuck up if you ask me (which you didn’t, but whatever).

In actual baseball, the Angels are a team built for the regular season with a loaded lineup, a passable rotation, and a train wreck of a bullpen. Luckily for them, the market is saturated with relief pitchers and it shouldn’t be too hard. In fact, they’ve already gotten started, grabbing Joe Thatcher from Arizona and swapping their failed closer, Ernesto Frieri, for Pittsburgh’s failed closer, Jason Grilli. I think they’ll comfortably end up with the first wild card spot in the AL and breath down Oakland’s neck for the division crown near the end of the season.

The choice for the second wild card spot is tricky. I don’t particularly like any of the AL East teams, skill-wise, and Cleveland and Kansas City are all young teams with flaws (pitching outside of Kluber and having a passable offense respectively). That leaves only the Mariners. I’m okay with that. They’ve got Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, Fernando Rodney and Robinson Cano. Their biggest hole is the lack of production from right field and first base. Their DH spot has also been shaky. If they can solve a chunk of that problem by acquiring Marlon Byrd, Josh Willlingham, or someone like them, they’ll be in good position to make a run.

Now, if you were paying any attention at all, you may have noticed that I picked three AL playoff teams to come out of the AL West. This is because of they play in a division with the Astros and the Rangers. The two Texas teams are among the worst in baseball. Their crappiness gives the rest of the teams in their division a boost up.

NL East: Washington Nationals

I’m a Mets fan but even I can say that this division is really really bad. I mean, you’ve got the retirement home Phillies, the lots-of-young-guys-but-not-quite-there-yet Marlins and Mets, the perpetually underachieving Nationals, and the never-quite-puts-it-together Braves.

The Phillies certainly won’t be winning anything this year, outside of shot at a top 5 draft pick (they currently have the seventh-worst record in the MLB). The Marlins started off hot but are finally coming down from that high. They’ve got no shot. The Mets are 45-50 but have been unlucky; they should be 50-45 with just league average luck. Still, they’re a young team and are more likely than not to do worse in the second half. They’ll be good in 2015 and beyond, just not this year (I’m gonna keep telling myself that, hoping that it’s true). The Braves are overachieving, leaving just Washington. I’ve always thought for the past three years that Washington has a really good team. They simply have no holes. Every position is manned by a capable player. I think that this is the year that they finally put it together and that they’ll easily win the NL East.

I think the rest of the division goes Atlanta, New York, Miami, and Philadelphia.

NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals

Here’s another division (along with the NL and AL Easts) that no one seems to want to win. Four out of the five teams are within 3.5 games of the division lead so this division is completely up-for-grabs. We can easily rule out the Cubs because they’re continuing to build for the future, but outside of Chicago, the four other teams are more or less even.

In the end, I’ve got to pick St. Louis. They’ve got great pitching and their hitting should bounce back eventually. They’ve got a ton of injuries to key contributors such as Yadier Molina, Michael Wacha, and Jaime Garcia. Still, all of them (except for possibly Garcia) will be back by September, in time for the stretch run.
Cincinnati is dealing with injuries of its own. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Sean Marshall are all banged up. However, the Reds should find it harder to compensate for their injuries. Milwaukee wasn’t supposed to be a particularly good team this year, but after a surprisingly good start, they’ve cooled off considerably. Pittsburgh is doing the same thing it’s always done: having a far better record than their stats would suggest. It’s not unreasonable to expect them to drop off a cliff in the second half.

The best reason for the Cards is that they’ve done it before. They know what it takes to win the division. In a division with five lackluster teams, that’s the best reason to pick one of them.

I think the Reds will come in second, the Brew Crew will be third, the Buccos will take home fourth, and the Cubs will be comfortably in last.

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s tough to go against a team that’s spending 238 million dollars. It’s also tough to go against a team that’s so loaded that elite, major-league ready prospects are stuck in the minors because the players in the big leagues are all too good to be sent down.

Three of the six worst teams in MLB reside in their division, pushing them up a few games. The only competition comes from the Giants, who, after a scorching start, have stunk for a month or two.

I think that the rest of the division will be, in order of finish, San Francisco, Colorado, Arizona, and San Diego.

NL Wild Cards: 1. San Francisco Giants 2. Atlanta Braves

The NL Wild Card race should be relatively uncompetitive this year. There are five teams that (according to my predictions) won’t win their division but are still competitive: San Fran, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh. The three NL Central teams should all beat up on one another, leaving the Giants and Braves standing. Additionally, the Giants and Braves have easy divisions and should be able to capitalize on that by taking advantage of the weaker teams they’ll face.

AL MVP: Mike Trout

Honestly, who else could it be? Miguel Cabrera has won the past two AL MVPs over Trout, largely due to old-school thinkers who don’t value advanced stats at all compared to the old stalwarts of RBIs and home runs. This year, however, in addition to thrashing Cabrera in advanced stats (as always), Trout is beating him in the regular stats as well, other than RBIs where he’s losing by two, 75-73. That difference is offset by his dominance in other categories. That combination, along with finally being on a playoff team, is why Trout should take home his first MVP.

NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is, quite simply, a beast. He boasts enormous power; with 21 home runs, he’s tied with Troy Tulowitzki for the NL lead in the statistic. He leads the league in RBIs, with 63. He hits for average and gets on base a ton. He’s getting better production now that he’s playing with some good hitters, like Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Casey McGehee, and Garrett Jones.

Still, the NL MVP is wide open. You could make a convincing case for Tulowitzki, Paul Goldschmidt, and Andrew McCutchen. Picking this race is pretty much a crapshoot but Stanton’s my best bet based on his immense power and his capability of turning in a monstrous second half.

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

King Felix is the obvious choice here. Chris Sale hasn’t pitched as many innings and David Price is still overcoming his poor start to the season, and he might get traded to an NL team. There are worries with Scott Kazmir and Garrett Richards that their seasons are outliers. Masashiro Tanaka got hurt. Justin Verlander stopped being Justin Verlander. There’s just not a huge amount of competition in the AL this year. That shouldn’t take away from Hernandez’s achievements, though. Through 144.1 innings, he’s got 154 strikeouts, a 2.12 ERA, and a 0.90 WHIP. If you care about wins, he’s got 11. He’s been the best pitcher on a playoff contender, and as long as neither he nor the Mariners suffer a prolonged second half swoon, he should win his second Cy Young in a landslide.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

Just like with the MVP races, the real intrigue comes with the NL. Does the award go to someone with a breakout season (Julio Teheran)? Does it go to an extreme outlier season that probably won’t happen again (Johnny Cueto)? Does it go to someone who missed a month of the season but is undeniably the best pitcher in the game (Kershaw)? Or, does it go to someone who’s been consistently spectacular all year (Adam Wainwright)?

I choose Kershaw, and here’s why:

  1. Best pitcher in the game
  2. Plays for a guaranteed playoff team
  3. The innings gap between him and the rest of the starters will be far less noticeable by the end of the season
  4. He’s been unbelievably good so far this year

That’s more than enough for me. In case that wasn’t enough, Kershaw is more likely to win because he plays for a guaranteed playoff team while Wainwright (the probable runner-up) plays for Saint Louis, a contender for a playoff spot, but by no means a slam-dunk.

A stat that shows the huge gap between Kershaw and Wainwright: Kershaw has pitched 41.2 innings less than Wainwright but has 11 more strikeouts. That’s called dominance.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jose Abreu

This doesn’t have much intrigue either. It was shaping up to be a great race between Abreu and Masashiro Tanaka, but Tanaka got hurt, putting an end to that discussion.

Something reasonably important that I’d like to point out is that Tanaka is 25 and Abreu is 27. Wait, so why are these guys considered rookies again?

NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton

I racked my brains for ten minutes and couldn’t think of a single rookie in the NL worth noting, outside of Hamilton. There’s not much competition in this race either. Regardless, Hamilton is a well-deserving candidate. In addition to his well-documented speed (he’s got 38 stolen bases so far this year), he’s hitting .285, albeit with a pedestrian OPB of .319, quelling concerns that he wouldn’t be able to get on base to get steals in the big leagues. He’s even got 38 RBIs, a lot for a leadoff hitter. Hamilton is a solid choice for the NL ROY, despite there not being anyone else worth noting to compete with him.

AL Playoffs:

  1. Oakland
  2. Detroit
  3. Baltimore
  4. Los Angeles/Seattle

AL Wild Card Game: Seattle

The Angels are probably a better team overall than the Mariners, but they don’t have the shutdown ace that Seattle has in Felix Hernandez. King Felix should shut down Los Angeles in the wild card game, giving Seattle the victory.

ALDS: Oakland, Detroit

Oakland should easily put away Seattle with its superior pitching and hitting, along with its depth throughout the roster. The only position that Seattle is better than Oakland at is second base, where Seattle has Robinson Cano, compared to Oakland’s four-way platoon of Alberto Callaspo, Jed Lowrie, Nick Punto, and Eric Sogard. Outside of that position, the Athletics are better in every way.

Detroit should do the same to Baltimore, beating them with their combination of elite hitting and above average pitching. Baltimore doesn’t have great starting pitching which should doom them in a playoff series.
ALCS: Oakland

This sets up a rematch of Oakland-Detroit. Detroit has won the past two years, but neither team is the same. Justin Verlander’s not as good as he used to be and Doug Fister was traded to Washington, so the Tigers are at a slight disadvantage in pitching.

The two teams are just about neck and neck in hitting. Detroit has more star power, but Oakland has solid players up and down the order.

The place where the Athletics have a huge advantage is in the bullpen. Joe Nathan hasn’t been good at all closing for the Tigers, while the A’s have good setup men in Dan Otero and Luke Gregerson, along with an All Star closer in Sean Doolittle.

Oakland’s clearly a better team than Detroit, and that’s why I think they’ll exorcise their past demons to finally move on to the World Series.

NL Wild Card Game: Atlanta

As in the AL matchup, the team with the best starting pitcher will nearly always win. Julio Teheran is better than all of the Giants’ pitchers, like Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, Tim Hudson, Madison Bumgarner, and Tim Lincecum. Because of that advantage, I think Atlanta will beat San Francisco.

NLDS: Los Angeles, Washington

Los Angeles should thrash Atlanta with its incredibly deep rotation and its elite lineup, especially as Julio Teheran, Atlanta’s ace, won’t be able to pitch the first game of the series if he pitches in the Wild Card game.
I think Washington will avenge its loss to the Cardinals from two seasons ago. Although St. Louis has the best pitcher in the series, Adam Wainwright, Washington hasn’t been wracked by pitching injuries, with Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez, the likely members of their playoff rotation, all healthy. Even if one of them does get hurt, the Nats still have Tanner Roark as a solid backup plan.

NLCS: Los Angeles

Although Washington has great pitching, they can’t compare to the playoff rotation that the Dodgers can roll out: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, and Hyun-jin Ryu. The strength of the Nationals is pitching; take away that advantage and they’re suddenly not so intimidating anymore.

This sets up a California World Series between Oakland and Los Angeles, a matchup which should be a treat for all.

The World Series: Oakland

I went back and forth between the two teams about a thousand times before finally deciding.

Despite having less than a third of Los Angeles’ payroll, I think the Athletics will win the World Series.

The Dodgers have a ton of star power and are very top-heavy, while the Athletics have some stars, but have a ton more depth. Los Angeles is an incredible regular season team, and an incredible postseason team, but what happens if an important player gets injured. Then what happens? We’ve already seen that worst-case scenario with Oakland’s pitching staff and they rose to the occasion.

Also, I feel like, in every World Series, there’s one random player who makes a huge difference. Oakland has a ton of those guys. The Dodgers? Not so much. That’s a big reason why I’m picking the Oakland Athletics to win the 2014 World Series.

 

Improving the All Star Starting Lineup

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Sorry for the lack of content lately. I’ve been on vacation. I was in Los Angeles for a few days and I’m in New Zealand now, and for the next month or so. There may not be as many articles as there may normally be, but I’ll do my best to keep up.

On Sunday, the All Star rosters for each league were announced, outside of the final spot. As always, there were some notable omissions and some questionable inclusions. I figured that something fun for us to do would be to go through each starting lineup and single out the unworthy starters, explaining why they’re undeserving and who should replace them.

Let’s start with the AL.

C: Matt Wieters. Wieters has had only about 150 at bats this year and is out for the season due to injury. I can’t imagine how he’s considered an All Star. Filling in for him as a starter is Salvador Perez. Although he’s been good, how is he better than Derek Norris? Perez has 120 more at bats than Norris, but only has eight more runs (35-27) and two more homers (10-8). Norris leads 37-32 in RBIs and has big leads in average (.312-.282) and OBP (.416-.328). It’s really no contest on who’s been a better player per at bat, and Norris has huge leads in rate-based stats and isn’t behind in much in the cumulative stats. This, to me, is an egregious error.

1B: Miguel Cabrera. A solid choice as he’s clearly superior than Brandon Moss and Albert Pujols, two of the main contenders in the AL. The third best 1B in the AL is Jose Abreu, he of the 27 homers. Cabrera’s main competitor is Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion is equal to Cabrera in a few categories but has a huge advantage in home runs, 26 to 14. Cabrera makes up some of the difference with a big lead in average (.312-.277). Despite this, it’s pretty clear that Cabrera, at least this year, has not been as good as Encarnacion. He starts in place of him for three reasons:

1. Encarnacion is injured and, even if he was named the starter, he wouldn’t be able to play anyways.

2. Cabrera plays in a bigger baseball market than Encarnacion.

3. The biggest reason that Cabrera gets pushed above Encarnacion is because of his history of elite play. When in doubt, people always go with the established superstar over the newcomer.

2B: Robinson Cano. Cano is starting for the same big reason as Cabrera, because he’s been an All Star for the past few years, but he doesn’t have the same statistical dominance this year. Cabrera, while you could make a case that Encarnacion should be starting over him, at least has comparable stats to his. Cano hasn’t been anywhere close to as good as Jose Altuve, let alone Ian Kinsler and Brian Dozier.

SS: Derek Jeter. It’s the final year of his career, he’s the most popular player in the league, he plays in New York, and he’s one of the best players ever. That’s why he’s starting. Logically, though, he’s completely undeserving. He’s horrible defensively at shortstop, and the only reason why he stays there is to keep his streak alive of playing his entire career at one position. He’s okay offensively, but is nowhere near as good as Alexei Ramirez, Erick Aybar, or even Jose Reyes. The Captain deserves to start in the last All Star Game of his career, but it doesn’t mean that he got there by stats alone.

3B: Josh Donaldson. This is a pretty good pick. Donaldson was elite last year and is still above average this year. He hits for power, with 18 homers and 63 RBIs on the year. His average has slipped a bit to .247, but a lot of that is due to bad luck, as shown by his low BABIP. Another factor helping him out is the overall weakness of third baseman in the AL. There’s only Kyle Seager and Adrian Beltre that compare to him, but Donaldson is easily better all around than Seager and is better than Beltre, although by a slimmer margin than one might think.

OF: Jose Bautista, Mike Trout, Adam Jones. All are good choices. They’re all clearly a cut above the reserves, Michael Brantley, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon, along with the rest of the outfield candidates in the AL. There’s not much to say about these picks.

DH: Nelson Cruz. Another good pick, although I’d have chosen Victor Martinez over him, due to his higher average and OBP with comparable numbers in cumulative stats.

Let’s move on to the NL.

C: Yadier Molina. He’s a perennial All Star, but there’s no world in which you could tell me that Molina has been better than Jonathan Lucroy this year, or at least actually be correct about it. Lucroy has been better than Molina in every single category this season. The real question is whether Lucroy or Devin Mesoraco starts. Mesoraco, with 130 less at bats than Lucroy, has outperformed Lucroy in most counting stats, especially in home runs, where Mesoraco has a 16-9 lead. However, Lucroy’s large lead in AVG and OBP along with his status as an established veteran gives him the edge over Mesoraco. Both should be starting over Molina, though.

1B: Paul Goldschmidt. This is a slam dunk pick. No one in the NL can compare to Goldschmidt’s all around superiority. Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, and Justin Morneau all have good stats, but, outside of Rizzo’s 20-16 advantage in homers, all are outclassed in every stat by Goldschmidt.

2B: Chase Utley. Second base is reasonably weak in the National League this year; that’s the only reason Utley’s starting. Assuming that Anthony Rendon is considered more of a third baseman, it all comes down to how much you value stolen bases. If you think that they’re an integral part of the game, you go with Dee Gordon. Otherwise, due to a lack of better candidates, Utley’s the starter.

SS: Troy Tulowitzki. There’s no other choice. He outshines every other NL shortstop considerably at every statistic.

3B: Aramis Ramirez. Neither Ramirez nor David Wright have been on par with their usual standards this year, but Ramirez somehow managed to get the job. Wright has probably been slightly better than Ramirez this year, but both have certainly not been deserving of an All Star spot, let alone being a starter. Both Todd Frazier and Anthony Rendon have been far better than Ramirez so the real question is whether Frazier or Rendon should be starting. They’re almost identical players, each with stats much alike to the other’s. In the end, I’d have to choose Rendon as the more valuable player between the two because of the additional value he creates by being able to play second base. However, one could easily make the case that positional flexibility has no place in All Star voting for a specific position, but I have to find an edge for one of the players somewhere, and that’s the best option I’ve got.

OF: Carlos Gomez, Andrew McCutchen, Yasiel Puig. One of these three players has to make room for Giancarlo Stanton, the question is: Which one? McCutchen is easily in, with his impressive stats filling up the box score. That leaves Gomez and Puig. Overall, Puig has been better than Gomez, with a far better AVG and OPS, giving us the final member of our outfielder trio. No matter what, Stanton has easily been the best outfielder in the NL this year and it’s a bad choice, no matter how you paint it.

Well, that about sums it up. All in all, the roster decisions weren’t all too bad, although some were blatantly wrong.

Unfortunately, oftentimes making fun of the roster selections is a lot more entertaining than actually watching the All Star Game. It’s too bad, especially as there could be some really good baseball played if all the best players in the league were motivated to do their best.

In World Cup news, Germany and Argentina are set to face each other in the World Cup Final. I actually may have built up some credibility with my predictions:

1. I correctly predicted 12 of the 14 knockout round matches to date (only missing Netherlands-Argentina and USA-Belgium)

2. I correctly predicted at the start of the tournament that Brazil would crack under the pressure in the semifinals and lose to Germany (although I didn’t expect the 7-1 smackdown that actually occurred)

3. I correctly predicted that Spain would not be part of the Final Four (although I didn’t predict that they’d lose in the Group Stage)

Of course, I also predicted that Uruguay would make it to the championship game, but let’s try and gloss over that a little, shall we?

I also predicted at the start of the tournament that Germany would win it all. Go me!

Anyways, it should be a great matchup between the team (Germany) and the player (Messi) and I can’t wait to watch it at 8AM on Monday morning during New Zealand time.

Go Germany!

The Knockout Rounds Preview

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That certainly was an exciting Group Stage. There were blowouts, shutouts, high scoring games, and low scoring games, and that was all in just Group G. Favorites crapped the bed (looking at you, Spain), underdogs pulled off surprising and unlikely victories (nice job, Nigeria, Greece, Costa Rica) and there was craziness throughout. Luis Suarez even got so hungry during a game that he had a bite of Italian food. Of course, that “Italian food” was really the shoulder of Italy’s Giorgio Chiellini, but still.

In my pool, I came in second, losing narrowly in a competition that went down to the wire. In the end, I ended up losing on that horrible play by Ivory Coast when they fouled someone on Greece INSIDE THE PENALTY BOX, DURING EXTRA TIME, DURING A TIE GAME, WHEN ALL THEY NEEDED TO ADVANCE WAS A TIE!!!!! I mean, how stupid can you get?!?!?! In case you hadn’t noticed, I may be a little bit bitter about that.

Anyways, I figured that, rather than rehashing my picks again, I’d preview each match in the knockout rounds, along with my picks for each game, all the way to the championship game.

Round of 16:

Brazil vs. Chile:

Chile plays a frenzied and energetic style that often leads to high scoring games, either because they score a bunch of goals, or give a bunch of them up. Their game against the Netherlands was huge because the loser had to play Brazil, the favorite to win the tournament, while the winner got to play Mexico, a much easier opponent. Chile lost, 2-0, so here they are.

Brazil didn’t look very sharp in its first two games, but really rounded into form against Cameroon, winning 4-1, showing that they deserved the pre-tournament status as the favorite.

As you know, I like South American teams a lot, but, since both teams are from South America, there’s no advantage for either team. Although I like Chile a lot, I think Brazil has more than enough to beat them.

THE PICK: Brazil

The Netherlands vs. Mexico:
Mexico is a pretty good team. They drew an easy group, and took advantage of it, beating Cameroon 1-0 (should have been 3-0), beating Croatia 3-1, and tying the tournament’s favorite, Brazil, 2-2. Outside of a shaky few months during qualifying, Mexico has been a pretty good team for a few years.

The Netherlands have been one of the surprise teams of the tournament. In the tough Group B with three very good teams, most people (including me) predicted that the Netherlands would be the odd team out. Instead, they won their group in resounding fashion with the maximum nine points. They were the first to show the world that Spain was no longer a very good team, winning 5-1, regressed slightly against Australia, winning 3-2, before easily beating Chile 2-0, to capture first place.

The Netherlands have Robin van Persie, ripped through a tough group, and have been playing very well. Mexico did well in an easy group, and have been playing very well for three games. Although it’ll be closer than expected, the Netherlands should beat Mexico with relative ease.

THE PICK: The Netherlands

Columbia vs. Uruguay

Uruguay beat England and Italy, two good teams, with Luis Suarez. Without him, they lost 3-1 to Costa Rica, a team that is generally not considered to be among the soccer powerhouses of the world. Luis Suarez makes a huge difference for this Uruguay team, and without him, they’re crippled. After the biting incident, FIFA banned Suarez for the next nine matches (and four months), meaning that he’s out for this game, along with the rest of the World Cup.

Columbia ripped through a creampuff group, with a combined score of the three games of 9-2. Because of their easy draw, no one is quite sure how good Columbia is. Uruguay was supposed to be that test, but it seems as though it’s not meant to be. If they advance and Brazil doesn’t get upset by Chile, Columbia should be able to test their mettle against the Brazilians.

With Suarez, Uruguay would be a trendy upset pick to defeat Columbia. Without him, they have next to no chance. Columbia should easily defeat Uruguay.

THE PICK: Columbia

Costa Rica vs. Greece

Greece only advanced because of a brain fart by the Ivory Coast. A Greek player was fouled inside the box in a tie game in extra time, needing a victory to advance. They scored on the penalty kick and advanced.

Costa Rica took advantage of the weakened Uruguay team when they didn’t have Suarez, barely beat Italy, and tied against England. Although they’re probably better than what they were originally assumed to be, they’re still not a great team. Of course, the lucked into an easy matchup, so they’ll continue to seem like a better team than they are.

In the most underwhelming matchup of the knockout rounds, Costa Rica should beat Greece, continuing its Cinderella run for at least another round.

THE PICK: Costa Rica

France vs. Nigeria

Nigeria is not a particularly good team. It was good enough to advance, but that’s largely due to being in an easy group alongside Iran, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Argentina, not because of their own talent.

France, after years of disappointing showings by their national team, destroyed Honduras and Switzerland, 3-0 and 5-2, respectively, before tying Ecuador 0-0 in a game that they didn’t care much about.

France has looked dominant so far and against a weak opponent in Nigeria, they should easily advance.

THE PICK: France

Argentina vs. Switzerland

Switzerland, despite being ranked in FIFA’s top eight, is not a great team. It escaped against Ecuador, was whipped by France, and easily dispatched Honduras. They’re not a bad team per se, but when compared to other teams in FIFA’s top eight, Switzerland is found sorely lacking.

Argentina didn’t play very well in the Group Stage, despite being in an easy group. They won all three games, coming away with the maximum nine points, but never really dominated, only winning each game by a single goal. Still, they have Lionel Messi, the best player in the world, and in the end, that’s really all that matters.

Switzerland will show why it shouldn’t be considered a top eight team worldwide, Messi will continue to be Messi, and Argentina should easily advance.

THE PICK: Argentina

Germany vs. Algeria

Algeria was considered to be the worst team in the tournament but somehow managed to advance because of their easy group. Outside of an explosion against South Korea in which they scored four goals, they have mostly looked like the team people thought they were at the start of the tournament.

Germany was my pre-tournament pick to win it all, and, on the whole, they’ve largely vindicated my prediction. They dominated Portugal (albeit a ten-man one), tied Ghana, and beat the United States.

In a game between one of the best teams in the tournament and one of the worst, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge blowout by four goals, but Germany should dominate Algeria with ease and move on to the quarterfinals.

THE PICK: Germany

Belgium vs. United States

The United States have looked very good so far. They beat Ghana, dominated Portugal for most of their game, and played Germany tough. With the rising interest in soccer throughout the United States, they’re going to have the whole country behind them.

Belgium, although it advanced with nine points, did not play well. They won 2-1 against Algeria before winning consecutive 1-0 games against Russia and South Korea. They should have dominated in an easy group, but did not do as well as they should have.

Call me a homer, but I haven’t made an upset pick yet, and I think the United States has a better chance than most underdogs to upset their opponent to advance to the quarterfinals.

THE PICK: United States

The Quarterfinals:

Brazil vs. Columbia

Columbia, although less heralded than Brazil, is a very good team. Unfortunately for them, Brazil is a superior team to them on a neutral pitch. When they’re playing in Brazil, in a stadium with thousands and thousands of Brazilian supporters cheering on their team, I can’t imagine that Columbia manages to overcome the overwhelming home field advantage of the Brazilians.

THE PICK: Brazil

The Netherlands vs. Costa Rica

Here’s where Costa Rica’s Cinderella journey comes to an end: against a superior team that isn’t weakened by injuries that has rolled through its competition so far. It would be a huge upset for Costa Rica to play on an even level against the Netherlands, let alone defeat them.

THE PICK: The Netherlands

France vs. Germany

France has looked like a great team during this World Cup. They’ve looked like they deserve to be in the first tier of favorites, alongside Germany, Argentina, and Brazil, after dominating . However, they have yet to play a team that’s half as good as Germany.

Germany, on the other hand, has played some tough teams in Group G, and despite advancing past Algeria in an easy win, has proved itself worthy of the title “co-favorite”. Their run won’t stop against France, and Germany should continue to advance.

THE PICK: Germany

Argentina vs. United States

The United States have played well so far. They beat Ghana, dominated Portugal before tying them, played Germany tough, and beat Belgium. Still, they have yet to see an individual player as dominant as Lionel Messi, nor a team as good as Argentina (I think that Germany is slightly worse than Argentina). Their run to the championship game should fall short in the quarterfinals against Argentina.

THE PICK: Argentina

The Semifinals:

Brazil vs. Germany

While Columbia is a very good team, it’s clearly not on the level of Brazil. Germany is a different story. Germany, while slightly inferior to Brazil, is an elite team. This is the game where I think that home field advantage will turn out to be a curse for the Brazilians. I talked about this more in The World Cup Preview (go read it), but I believed then and I believe now that both the social and political pressure on the Brazilian team will finally make the team collapse. I figured that the pressure wouldn’t matter against inferior opponents, but Germany is on Brazil’s level. I thought then that the team that beats Brazil would be Germany, in the semfinals, and I still believe that.

THE PICK: Germany

The Netherlands vs. Argentina

Argentina will make it to the semifinals because their quarter of the bracket is the weakest one, alongside the quarter that the Netherlands is in. Argentina is a team that needs Messi to be incredible every game and to be otherworldly against good teams.

On the other hand, the Netherlands has a multifaceted attack, speared by Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie. This attack dominated Group B, winning all three games with a couple of resounding victories. In this game, at least, the Netherlands has the advantage, and will likely be rewarded with a second consecutive trip to the World Cup Finals.

THE PICK: The Netherlands

The Third Place Game:

Argentina vs. Brazil

Both teams rely on an elite attacker (Messi and Neymar, respectively). Both teams are not as deep overall as some other teams. Both teams are South American. There are a lot of similarities between these two sides.

In this potential match, the most important factor is the reaction of Brazil (not the team, the country) to their loss to Germany in the semifinals. Do they support the team? Are they disappointed or angry, further exacerbating the cracks in the team’s foundation? That question will determine the results of this match.

In the end, I’ll have to lean towards Argentina. I think that the Brazilian fans will be devastated by the loss and will blame the team for the government’s lavish spending on hosting the World Cup. Of course, I could be completely wrong as I’m not exactly an expert on the reactions of South American fans to brutal losses to their national soccer team, but this is my column and my picks, so you’re just gonna have to roll with it. Okay? If you disagree or just want to lob insults at me, just head over to the comments section to voice those complaints.

THE PICK: Argentina

The Championship Game:

The Netherlands vs. Germany

The famed home field advantage of the South American teams won’t come into play in this scenario as both teams are from Europe. This scenario will result in the first time a European team wins a World Cup on South American soil.

Germany is deep throughout its roster, with players young and old melding seamlessly into an elite team, the best offensive team in the world, and a member of the Elite Three (no longer the Elite Four after Spain’s demise).

The Netherlands is a little more top heavy than Germany, but still has a relatively even roster. It’s got elite players in van Persie and Robben and was good enough to dominate in a Group of Death and to advance this far in my predictions. Still, I think that for the second straight World Cup, the Netherlands will fall short in the Finals.

THE PICK: Germany

No matter what happens, it’ll be great to watch the best teams in the world go head to head in the battle for supremacy and I, like the rest of the world, can’t wait to see it.

The 2014 NBA Draft Diary

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The most anticipated draft in many years is finally here. Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, and Jabari Parker headline the draft. All three will almost certainly, barring injury, be perennial all-stars, although if Cleveland drafts Embiid, he’ll get hurt and be out of the league within three years.

It’s clear that God hates Cleveland. He only gave them the number one draft pick so they can screw it up and torture their fans even more.

After the top tier of Embiid (although he may have dropped out of it due to his injuries), Wiggins, and Parker, are Vonleh, Randle, Exum, Gordon and probably McDermott and Smart. It’s tough to narrow them down. There are so many good players up and down the draft that it almost doesn’t matter where you pick.

Evidence: after that second tier of five or six players and a third tier of eight or nine more, the next 35 players are all good players who can potentially be starters, if not more.

That’s why I love the Knicks-Mavericks trade for the Knicks so much. They unloaded Felton and the onerous contract of Chandler while getting the 34th and 51st picks. While that may not seem like that much, the 34th pick is essentially a first rounder except a lot cheaper, while the 51st pick is just as likely to result in a starter as any pick down to the 25th in this deep draft.

It’s nice to finally see a basketball team I cheer for (I’m a fan of both the Knicks and Nets) have a pick in the draft. It’s a feeling I’m not going have very much over the next few years.

I think it’s hilarious how the Nets are hosting the draft in Barclays Center while not having a single pick.

Anyways, my eleven year old sister is vaguely watching the draft with me, although she seems more likely to be preoccupied by the computer. If she ends up paying attention, she’ll probably focus on insulting the outrageous outfits of the draftees while I focus on insulting the picks. Still, it’ll be tough to do that. It’s so hard to insult picks when there are so many good players.

A big storyline I’ll be watching tonight is where Embiid goes. Who will take a huge risk by taking Embiid? It’s a massive reward if it pays off, but the GM that takes him will be betting their jobs on Embiid’s foot. That’s why I think that a team with multiple first round picks will take Embiid. Philadelphia probably won’t take him because they already have a center in Nerlens Noel. The only other team with multiple lottery picks is the Orlando Magic, who have the fourth and twelfth picks. That’s why, in my big prediction of the night, I predict that the Magic will take Embiid. It’ll be very surprising, but with the amount of risk involved, there’s no certainty. However, I think Orlando is the most likely to take Embiid, even if there’s only a 25% chance that they end up taking him.

Embiid’s injury has thrown this draft into flux. Originally, Embiid was supposed to go to the Cavs, the Bucks were going to get the hometown kid, Parker, and the Sixers would get who they tanked their season for, Wiggins. Then Orlando was going to take Dante Exum to put him in a dual guard role along with Victor Oladipo. Then the rest of the second tier would play out in some way to the next few teams and the next 35 picks could go in any random way.

Just a short explanation of a draft diary: a draft diary is pretty much just a running log of the draft. The time at which I wrote everything is recorded and, other than a small amount of editing, everything is the same as what I originally wrote.
7:26 Well, the draft diary is finally here! Hopefully it’ll become a tradition. I really like writing in this format.
7:27 I’ve been watching the pre-draft show for about twenty minutes and I’m already tired of that stupid NBA draft commercial that has the draftees taking selfies. It’s annoying, repetitive, and people are paying to see the players get drafted and play basketball, not look dumb and take selfies.
7:32 So does Cleveland take Embiid and run the risk of him being hurt? Do they go with Wiggins with the highest potential? Do they pick Parker, who can come in and help right away? No matter what they do, they’ll probably be wrong.
7:33 It’s telling how for years David Stern was booed on draft night, while Silver is cheered today. Stern was unpopular and overstayed his welcome, while Silver got rid of Donald Sterling, so it’s really no contest. Hopefully Silver can keep his popularity and continue to be an exceptional commissioner.
7:34 I like Silver’s speech about the Spurs and how the won a championship using players from up and down the draft, from Duncan at 1 all the way down to Manu at 57 and how he uses that to prove that great players can come from anywhere in the draft. That’s especially true today, when, as I said, there are so many good players throughout the draft.
7:39 The Cavs haven’t sent in their pick yet, despite their time running out. Maybe their strategy is just to not make a pick. They can’t be wrong if they don’t pick anyone.

7:41 The Cavaliers take….

7:41: ANDREW WIGGINS!

7:41 Parker just became one of the best players ever.

7:41 Wiggins just developed the beginnings for about five or six injuries that will prevent him from ever playing.

7:42 Sam Hinkie needs another eight boxes of tissues.

7:43 At least Wiggins is as close to a sure thing as you can get. Hopefully the Cavs won’t find a way to screw it up like they did with Anthony Bennett.

7:44 Wiggins’ suit is… interesting. It’s skeletal looking white flowers on a dark black suit. At least it doesn’t look like he’s bleeding like Jalen Rose’s draft day outfit did.

7:47 Milwaukee takes Jabari Parker, as expected. Not a big deal. It was what everyone expected, although it sucks for Philadelphia.

7:50 Jay Williams says “and now let’s go to his [Parker’s] father, Sonny”. I found that amusing. Just thought you should know.

7:51 It’s going to be very interesting what the Sixers do. Do they pick Embiid despite having another center or do they take Exum, Vonleh, Randle, McDermott, or someone else?

7:53 The Bucks have a sneaky good team. They have Larry Sanders, the Greek Freak, a couple of other decent players, and now Parker. As they have five good players, Milwaukee could easily be a playoff team next year in the garbage East.

7:53 WOW! The Sixers take Embiid! That’s crazy! They already have a center in Nerlens Noel, although I suppose they can have twin towers in the mold of Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon on the late-80s Rockets or the late-90s Spurs with Tim Duncan and David Robinson.

7:56 Philadelphia also has a sneaky good team. They have Embiid, small forward X at number 10, Noel, and MCW. That’s a really good, young team, assuming that all four players pan out. In addition to those four, Hinkie has five second rounders, from whom he should be able to gain a starter or two, along with some good bench players. Lord, the Sixers are going to be stacked in a couple of years.

7:58 ESPN goes to a graphic comparing Embiid to Greg Oden. It’s amusing because Oden had his career derailed by injuries. Given that Embiid is a huge injury risk, I can’t imagine why would ESPN jinx him like that.

7:59 Orlando takes…

7:59 Aaron Gordon?!?!? That’s very surprising. It was widely assumed that Orlando would take Exum, but apparently not.

8:01 I’m not entirely sure why they’d take Gordon over Exum. Exum and Smart are the two best two point guards in the draft, with a drop off to Zach LaVine, Elfrid Payton, and Tyler Ennis. Smart probably won’t be around by Orlando’s second first round pick, at number twelve. The forward positions (where Gordon plays) are stacked in this draft, and they probably could have gotten someone comparable to Gordon at number twelve like Doug McDermott, Rodney Hood, or Adreian Payne.

8:02 The commercial with Dante Exum in it cracked me up for some reason. He’s got a noticeable Australian accent which is hugely incongruous to his physical appearance. Did I manage to avoid seeming racist? I hope so.

8:06 The Jazz take Exum 5th overall, doing exactly what I wanted the Magic to do. Utah will play him and Trey Burke in a dual guard role like Phoenix did with Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic before Bledsoe got hurt.

8:12 The Celtics take Marcus Smart.

8:12 I don’t like that pick at all. They already have a good point guard in Rajon Rondo, although they could trade him away for draft picks. They also risk pissing Rondo off, as Rondo is sensitive about those sorts of things. I think they should have taken Julius Randle for an elite rebounder and someone who gets a lot of second-chance points.

8:16 I think the Lakers will take Randle now. Randle doesn’t play the same position as Kobe and he’ll get a lot of rebounds and second-chance points to help make up for when Kobe messes up.

8:17 Julius Randle to the Lakers!
8:17 It’s always nice when I’m right, especially when it’s for the right reasons. For all the reasons I just listed, I love that pick. With his rebounding, point scoring, and his ability to help clean up Kobe’s mistakes, I think it’s a great pick.

8:19 Of course, I may be biased because I watched a lot of him during Kentucky’s run to the NCAA Championship Game, but still, he’s really good. I bet on Kentucky multiple times and I always was pleased with how he always seemed to get the big rebound or how he always managed to fight through contact for a tough layup.

8:22 The Kings take Nik Stauskas, an incredible shooter. He’s a very good player, the best shooter in the class, and is capable of creating his own shot. It’s nice that Sacramento didn’t take a power forward to crowd up their frontcourt even more than it already is.

8:23 Stauskas’ suit is… interesting.

8:29 In their first act as the Hornets, Charlotte takes Noah Vonleh. I don’t mind that pick. He is, presumably, a good player, but his team didn’t make March Madness, so the question is how good he actually is. He should match up well with Al Jefferson to form an imposing Charlotte frontcourt.

8:32 Wow his hands are massive. I think I could fit two or three of my hands into one of his.

8:36 Elfrid Payton is taken by the Sixers at number ten.

8:36 I love his hair.

8:37 Payton is a point guard, but Philly already has a point guard in MCW. What they really needed was a small forward and, conveniently, there were a number of good small forwards waiting for them, like Doug McDermott, Rodney Hood, or Adreian Payne. Also, the skill sets of MCW and Payton overlap a lot. Both can’t really shoot, which is not a good thing when one of them is going to have to be moved to shooting guard. I don’t particularly like this pick.

8:38 It seems as though Payton is having a little bit of trouble putting on his 76ers hat over his massive hair.

8:40 It’s amusing how MCW is interviewed and how he’s desperately trying not to say anything insulting or something that seems selfish. Drafts are always rich with unintentional comedy.

8:42 Doug McDermott to the Nuggets. I like the pick, although I’d like it for almost any team. He’s really good at shooting, scoring, dribbling, creating his own shot, making tough shots, being the leading scorer on a team, and being the only scoring threat on his team. Still, a lot of other Nuggets do a lot of the same things that McDermott does, making his skill set a little redundant.

8:45 Why does it sound like, during his interview, McDermott is breaking up with his dad? He said things like “after a four year grind” and “it’ll be great to move on”? That sounds a lot like a breakup talk to me.

8:51 The Magic take Dario Saric, a power forward out of Croatia.

8:52 He’ll be in Turkey for at least the next couple of years, so they’re essentially stashing him in Europe until 2016.

8:53 I’m not entirely sure how good Saric actually is because he’s from Europe and I’ve never seen him play, although I don’t like the pick for two reasons. One, he’s from Europe, and, despite success stories (see: Parker, Tony), there’ve been more busts, like Darko Milicic, especially among those picked high in the draft. Two, the last notable NBA draftee that I can remember who was stashed overseas and has been in the NBA long enough to establish his true value was Ricky Rubio. He was hyped when he was taken by Minnesota, but after spending a couple of years in Spain, he never turned into the elite point guard he was expected to become. That’s what I fear will happen to Saric.

8:56 The Timberwolves take Zach LaVine, somehow managing to forget that they’ve already got Ricky Rubio. Although the Cavs, Clips, and Knicks will never be approached at the summit of dysfunctional NBA teams, Minnesota is at the top of the next tier. Their pick is just about as bad as it can get in this draft.

8:56 LaVine is a great player and a physical freak, but he’s raw and won’t be ready for a couple of years, so he won’t help Minnesota convince Kevin Love to stay.

9:00 I like the Exum commercials, mostly because I love hearing him talk.

9:01 The Sixers traded Payton to the Magic for Saric and a 2017 first rounder. That makes a lot more sense. The Magic get the point guard they were expected to take, while the Sixers can stash a player overseas as a reinforcement for their team in a couple of years while picking up another first rounder. I like that trade a lot for Philadelphia and don’t mind it for Orlando.

9:03 TJ Warren goes to the Suns. He’s an elite scorer, carried North Carolina State, and doesn’t interfere with the chemistry between Dragic and Bledsoe at the guard spots.

9:05 Wow, Warren talks really fast.

9:10 The Hawks take Adreian Payne. It’s a fine pick but I don’t have much to say about it other than saying that a jump-shooting big is always useful in the NBA.

9:15 A really touching moment when Silver and the NBA ‘select’ Isaiah Austin after he was expected to be selected in the first round but couldn’t, after his basketball career was ended by a genetic disorder.

9:19 The Bulls take Jusuf Nurkic, a center from Bosnia and Herzegovina. That’s part of a trade with the Nuggets in which Chicago gets McDermott and Denver gets the 16th and 19th picks. I like the trade for both teams. The Bulls needed a scorer and a small forward and because they gain cap room by not having to pay another first rounder. The Nuggets get an additional two players and give up a player who they couldn’t use. Presumably that’s why they picked McDermott in the first place, in preparation for a trade. That’s also the reason why Philly took Payton at 10, Orlando took Saric at 12, and, now, Chicago’s pick of Nurkic at 16.

9:25 The Celtics take James Young, a shooting guard out of Kentucky. He’s a great shooter and player, but this creates a logjam in the backcourt for the Celtics with Young, Smart, and Rondo all competing for two spots. Presumably there’s a trade in the works for Boston in which they send away one of those three players.

9:32 The Suns take Tyler Ennis. That’s another strange pick. Phoenix, as I’ve already said multiple times, have Bledsoe and Dragic at the guard spots. As the Raptors really wanted Ennis two picks later, I can only assume that there’s a trade in the works between the two teams because this pick makes no sense whatsoever for the Suns. If the Raptors end up trading for Ennis, then that means that they’ve almost certainly given up on resigning Kyle Lowry.

9:33 Canada is dominating this draft with Wiggins, Stauskas, and Ennis all hailing from the Great White North.

9:35 The Bulls take Gary Harris for the Nuggets at 19. This pick makes Denver’s trade earlier today for Arron Afflalo redundant as both players are shooting guards.

9:38 If Toronto doesn’t manage to trade for Ennis, then they can take Shabazz Napier at twenty.

9:41 Miami is apparently trying to trade up for Napier, which would be a good move for them to pick up a replacement for Mario Chalmers. Of course, all their plans are based on the assumption that LeBron comes back. If he doesn’t, Miami will be screwed even more than they already would have been.

9:44 Well, this was the first pick of some random player than no one has ever heard of: Bruno Caboclo from Brazil, going to the Raptors at number twenty. He’s so raw that, despite his incredible physical gifts, he’s at least four years away from actually playing. Why are they not trying to build on their successful 2014 season by improving their team for the coming season? This pick makes no sense to me.

9:51 With their last asset remaining for the Harden Hijacking, the Thunder take Mitch McGary. I like that pick a lot. McGary is really good and he allows the Thunder to shift Ibaka to the 5 to replace Perkins while sliding in McGary at the 4.

9:58 Memphis takes Jordan Adams from UCLA. He was never projected to go this high, and I’ve not read much about him. At the very least he’s a 2-guard, a position at which the Grizzlies desperately need help.

10:00 Well, it’s time to stop watching as I’ve got work tomorrow and I need my beauty sleep. It’s also funny because in the NFL Draft Diary (the first thing I posted on this blog) I also got through just 22 picks. Still, getting through more than three thousand words together isn’t too shabby. Anyways, I hope you enjoyed and I can’t wait to see how all the new players fit into the league and who excels and who bombs, mostly so I can make fun of them. Now, the attention will shift off of the draft and onto the World Cup and LeBron’s (and the rest of the stars’) impending free agency.

World Cup Recap: Second Games

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With the USA-Portugal game bringing an exciting close to the second game for each team in the Group Stage, it’s time to look back and see how the picks are doing, as well as pointing out a couple of important storylines to watch that could be huge if the right dominoes fall.

Speaking of the USA-Portugal game… Damn it! That goal with thirty seconds left in extra time… How did the USA not hold them??? I’m writing this ten minutes after the game ended, and it hasn’t quite sunk in. Later on, in the Group G section, I’ll explain the ramifications of the tie.

By the way, if you haven’t already, check out https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/the-world-cup-preview/ for the World Cup Preview and https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2014/06/20/world-cup-recap-first-games/ for the recap of every team’s first game to ensure that you’re not totally lost as we head through this article.

Group A:

My Picks:

  1. Brazil
  2. Mexico
  3. Croatia
  4. Cameroon

Brazil 0-0 against Mexico

Croatia 4-0 over Cameroon

After their 0-0 tie, Mexico and Brazil are tied atop the group. This is a big problem. Remember the game that Mexico won, 1-0, against Cameroon? In that game, Mexico should have won 3-0 because of two bogus offsides calls that the referee screwed up. This would normally be fine except for one thing: goal differential. Let’s say Brazil beats Cameroon (very likely) and Mexico beats Croatia (probable). Let’s say that each team wins their game by one goal. In that scenario, Mexico and Brazil would be tied for first place, except that Brazil would win first place because they had a +3 goal differential after beating Croatia by two, tying Mexico, and, in this scenario, beating Cameroon by one. Mexico would have a +2 goal differential because they beat Cameroon by one, tied Brazil, and beat Croatia by one. This would result in Brazil winning the tiebreaker over Mexico and taking first place in Group A. There’s just one problem: if that referee hadn’t screwed up those two offsides calls, then Mexico would have a better goal differential than Brazil, would have, in a huge upset, won the group, and would have faced second place in Group B (the loser of Netherlands-Chile). There would be rioting on the streets of Mexico. Of course, this scenario may not end up happening, but if it did, FIFA would have a lot of explaining to do.

My picks are very likely to be perfect. It’s almost guaranteed that Brazil beats Cameroon, clinching Cameroon last place and giving Brazil the inside track to first place. Croatia needs to win and it moves into second place, while Mexico just needs to hold Croatia to a tie in order to keep second place in order to move on to the knockout rounds.

Group B:

My Picks:

  1. Spain
  2. Chile
  3. Netherlands
  4. Australia

Chile 2-0 over Spain

Netherlands 3-2 over Australia

Well, this group, one of the craziest groups in the World Cup so far (them or Group D), has lost almost all of its’ intrigue. The top two and bottom two spots are decided. Spain and Australia are both 0-2-0, tied for last place, each with zero points. The upcoming game between them is interesting because it’s a chance to see whether or not tiki-taka and the Spanish soccer dynasty are truly gone. It’s understandable that Spain may have gotten worse and moved down a level, and then, accordingly, got destroyed by two superior teams. However, if they lose to Australia, one of the worst teams in the tournament, then it’ll be clear that Spain is done. Those are the stakes for this match.

The other match, between Chile and the Netherlands, has more immediate importance. The winner of the game wins the group. If they tie, the Netherlands wins the group because of goal differential. Assuming that Brazil wins Group A, (as we talked about earlier) the loser of this match will have to go play Brazil, where they’ll be an overwhelming underdog against the best team in the tournament. The loser will get to play Mexico, or less likely, Croatia, a much easier task.

For my picks, it’s quite simple: Spain needs to beat Australia (because if they lose, Australia goes ahead of them, and if they tie, Australia wins on goal differential) to finish third, and the Netherlands cannot lose to Chile; otherwise, they take first place.

Group C:

My Picks:

  1. Colombia
  2. Ivory Coast
  3. Greece
  4. Japan

Colombia 2-1 over Ivory Coast

Greece 0-0 against Japan

Colombia has complete control of this group and will win it unless something crazy happens. For Columbia to come in second, they would have to lose to Japan, Ivory Coast would have to beat Greece, AND the four goal advantage that Columbia has over Ivory Coast would have to be erased. As I said, it’ll take something crazy and pretty much unprecedented for Ivory Coast to win the group. Greece tied Japan so they’re tied for last place with one point apiece. To finish third, Greece needs to win and have Japan tie or lose, or tie and have Japan lose. I suppose that they could also win by three (or one) while Japan wins by one, but that’s highly unlikely. Luckily, Greece is playing Ivory Coast while Japan is pitted against Colombia, so Greece is more likely to tie or win than Japan is. Of course, Colombia is almost guaranteed first place, so they may not be playing as hard as they could, while Ivory Coast will be doing its’ best to lock up a spot in the knockout rounds. This is too confusing. Let’s just continue with Group D.

Group D:

My Picks:

  1. Uruguay
  2. England
  3. Italy
  4. Costa Rica

Uruguay 2-1 over England

Costa Rica 1-0 over Italy

Well, this was a disaster. England flopped, Costa Rica decided to be really good, and Uruguay didn’t have Luis Suarez, only its’ best player, for their match against Costa Rica, which they lost. Costa Rica will almost certainly take first place, barring a historic meltdown. England cannot advance, although they could, potentially, make it to third place, which would at least give me a point. The winner of Uruguay-Italy moves into (almost certainly) second place and will head across the bracket to face (highly likely) Colombia. If Italy and Uruguay tie, Italy moves on, based on goal differential, as they lost to Costa Rica by just one goal, as opposed to Uruguay’s two goal defeat. For Uruguay, their game is a win and in. I’ll be cheering for them desperately. If they win, I salvage a point, Italy will likely move into third place, getting me another three points, and, on top of that, I picked Uruguay to be the runner-up, losing to Germany in the Finals so, although that almost certainly can’t happen anymore (because they’ll be on the same side of the bracket as Germany if they come in second place and Germany comes in first) but at least it’s not as bad as saying that your runner-up pick flamed out in the group stage. Anyways, this is making me sad. Let’s move on to Group E!

Group E:

My Picks:

  1. France
  2. Ecuador
  3. Switzerland
  4. Honduras

France 5-2 over Switzerland

Ecuador 2-1 over Honduras

These picks aren’t too bad. France is almost a lock to come in first. Honduras is almost a lock for last. The intrigue comes with the middle two teams. Switzerland is likely to advance because, although they’re currently tied in points, Switzerland gets to play Honduras, while Ecuador has to play France. Still, if France doesn’t play as hard as they could and Honduras rises to the occasion, then Ecuador could capture second place. Unfortunately for me, although it could happen, it’s not likely. Wow this is a dull group. I don’t have anything else to say. There’s really not much interesting to talk about over here. I suppose we should just talk about Messi and Argentina instead.

Group F:

My Picks:

  1. Argentina
  2. Bosnia and Herzegovina
  3. Nigeria
  4. Iran

Argentina 1-0 over Iran

Nigeria 1-0 over Bosnia and Herzegovina

Argentina has looked startlingly weak this World Cup. They haven’t looked like a member of the Elite Four that I mentioned in the World Cup Preview column. Then again, nor have Spain. Huh. This really has been a weird World Cup. Anyways, Argentina only beat Bosnia and Herzegovina by a goal, and it took a clutch goal by Lionel Messi a minute into stoppage time to escape Iran. They really have not looked sharp. At least they lucked into an easy group like Brazil did, so their flaws aren’t as evident. Of course, look at Spain. They got stuck with a tough group and got destroyed. Brazil and Argentina should be worried that that’ll happen to them too, except on an even bigger stage during the knockout rounds, with the whole world watching. The possible decline of Argentina is a huge factor to watch. Bosnia and Herzegovina (Can I call them B&H for shorthand? Wait… That’s either a camera store or a bagel place. Damn it! The world needs to come up with a good abbreviation for Bosnia and Herzegovina) are eliminated from the tournament after their loss to Nigeria, so I can’t get that pick perfect. It seems likely that Bosnia and Herzegovina and Nigeria will switch places so, at the very least, I’ll gain a point from each of them.

Group G:

My Picks:

  1. Germany
  2. USA
  3. Portugal
  4. Ghana

Germany 2-2 against Ghana

USA 2-2 against Portugal

Let’s start with the game less likely to get me angry: Germany-Ghana. Ghana managed to hold on and tie Germany, keeping them alive, barely. Now for Portugal-USA. Ugh. I watched the game, and watched with pure horror as the shot from Graham Zusi looked to be going wide. Then, as quick as could be, that horror turned to elation as I realized “Hey, wait a second… THAT’S A PASS” before the house erupted with roars of triumph. Of course, none of that compared to the feeling that we had been robbed after Ronaldo made a beautiful pass with thirty seconds left that resulted in a header, slipping past Howard for the deciding goal. Damn it! Anyways, the USA is still in good shape. If they tie or win their game against Germany, then they’re in. If they lose, then it gets trickier. If the United States loses to Germany, then they’ll need for either Portugal to win (as long as it’s not by four goals or more) or for there to be a tie. If Ghana wins, then it gets even trickier. If Ghana wins by more than one goal, they’re in and America is out. If they win 1-0, America is in. If they win 2-1, then the two teams draw lots to see who advances. If Ghana wins 3-2 or higher, then Ghana advances. Regardless, I’ll be cheering for Portugal and the USA, although I’ll try to keep it a secret that I’d actually prefer for there to be a tie or a Germany win. Of course, since Germany is so good, that shouldn’t be much of a problem. No matter how good the United States has looked, they still can’t play with the best teams in the world.

Group H:

My Picks:

  1. Belgium
  2. Russia
  3. South Korea
  4. Algeria

Belgium 1-0 over Russia

Algeria 4-2 over South Korea

Belgium is almost guaranteed to take first place. Other than them, this group is up for grabs. Algeria currently is in second place and has good goal differential, giving them an advantage over South Korea and Russia. If Algeria ties Russia, then they clinch second place. Belgium will still be playing hard to at least get a tie so they can stay in first and avoid (probably) Germany in their first game of the knockout rounds, so South Korea doesn’t have an advantage there. If Algeria loses to Russia and South Korea beats Belgium, then Algeria falls to last place with three points, while Russia and South Korea would be tied for second with four points. Russia has a one goal advantage against South Korea so South Korea would need to beat Belgium by one more goal than Russia beats Algeria by to win the tiebreaker by having scored more goals. Still, they would have to do it against the Belgians, Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku, and Thibaut Cortois, so it’s not particularly likely. Russia seems to have the inside track to the second place spot, while South Korea is likely to finish third. Here, at least, my picks seem to be in reasonably good shape.

Anyways, the upcoming games should be incredibly exciting. Each group has its’ two games playing at once so, at about the same time, each group will be decided. I am psyched, and it’ll be great to cheer on Team USA against Germany. U-S-A! U-S-A! Enjoy the games, everybody, and thanks for reading.