Trade Grade: Walker for Niese

Earlier today, news broke that the Mets were trading Jonathon Niese to the Pirates for Neil Walker.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates were rumored to be going after pitching, and they got a decent starter on a great contract. To get this valuable asset, they gave up a good offensive second baseman.

By moving Walker, Pittsburgh frees up a starting spot. Last season, for six positions (CF, LF, RF, 3B, 2B, SS) they had seven players who needed to start. Now that Walker is gone, Josh Harrison, a flexible defender and a decent hitter, can move to second, and the players who deserve to start will start.

Niese is a great acquisition for Pittsburgh. The Pirate rotation is shaky behind aces Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano, and Niese is as dependable as they come. The lefty has an ERA of 3.65 over the last four seasons combined, which is a #3 starter nearly any team would be happy to have.

Additionally, Niese is even more valuable because of his contract. Niese is owed nine million dollars this season, with two club options for the two seasons after for ten and eleven million dollars, respectively, along with a five-hundred thousand dollar buyout if the option is declined. While thirty million dollars seems like a sizable amount of money to spend on a solid pitcher, in today’s league, where half-decent pitchers are seeking eighty-million dollars over five years in free agency, that’s a very good contract.

The Pirates didn’t get a coup with this deal. They didn’t rip the Mets off. Instead, they got exactly what they needed without giving up anything they couldn’t live without.

Grade: A

New York Mets

The Mets needed a second baseman after Ben Zobrist signed with Chicago and other than perhaps Daniel Murphy, Walker was the best available.

Niese was expendable due to the Mets’ wealth of pitching. New York currently has four of its five rotation slots occupied, between Jacob DeGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz. With Zack Wheeler returning from Tommy John surgery in the middle of the season, there wasn’t going to be anywhere for Niese to pitch as a starter.

The Mets needed a second baseman to replace the departed Murphy, and Walker certainly fits the bill. Walker gains value due to his flexibility as a switch-hitter and, similarly to the player he was traded for, is remarkably consistent. Every season, Walker hits about .270 with a home run total in the mid-teens and an above-average OPS+. Anthony DiComo also noted Walker’s consistent production:

Probably the best Neil Walker stat I've seen: He and Cano are the only two 2B with at least 20 doubles,10 HR each of the last six seasons.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) December 10, 2015

Walker is only under contract for this season, which means that the Mets can feel free to move on from him after the season and hand the reins to Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores. Until then, though, it’ll be nice to have yet another solid player to add to a roster full of them.

It’s tough to give up Niese because of his great contract and the fact that he was effective as both a starter and reliever, but Walker is a good player. I bet the Mets could have found a better offer, especially if they waited until the end of free agency for the teams who missed out on their starting pitching targets, but, again, Walker will help the team this season without bogging them down for years to come.

Grade: B+

Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

Notes From Knicks-Sixers

Welcome to the Suck Bowl

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The NFL has the Super Bowl. The NCAA has countless bowls, covering an eclectic array of classics like the Cotton, Orange, and Rose, and shameless advertisements including the GoDaddy, Hyundai Sun, and Nova Home Loans Arizona. The NBA? Well, it has the Suck Bowl.

Tonight in Philadelphia, two team with a combined record of 2-32 will square off. In one corner, there are the Lakers, whose Stone-Age coach’s stubborn dismissal of common sense has them at 2-14. In the other, there are the Sixers, whose New-Age general manager’s continued plea to “trust the process” has the team at a dismal 0-18.

These are two teams heading in similar directions, but it’s always intriguing to map out how each got to where they are.

Let’s begin with the Lakers, a team that is dysfunctional enough that it allows Kobe Bryant to airball at least four shots a game and whose coach, Byron Scott, recently said: “Our guys get along. They just don’t trust each other”. And no, I’m not sure how that makes any sense, but remember, this is the same guy who seemingly believes that two and three are equal, based on his insistence that his team not shoot too many threes.

Anyways, way back in 2012, the team traded for stars Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. The team was expected to be great; however, Mitch Kupchak, the team’s general manager, apparently forgot that defense is as important as offense en route to a disappointing 45-37 season.

Despite their final record, the Lakers were still in the playoffs as the seventh seed, so there was still hope for their season. Then they got whipped by the Spurs by an average scoring margin of 18.75 over a four game sweep.

In the offseason, Howard fled to Houston, ending the team’s hope that he would be its bridge from Bryant into the future. Instead, the Lakers extended Bryant’s contract by two years for 48.5 million dollars, condemning the team to mediocrity or worse for the foreseeable future.

The next season, Los Angeles went 27-55 and Bryant played in a mere six games due to injury. There was a bright side to the team’s awfulness: a high draft pick resulting in Julius Randle, a power forward out of Kentucky. In addition to Randle, the Lakers nabbed Jordan Clarkson, a guard, at 46th overall.

In the 2014-15 season, the Lakers went 21-61, the franchise’s worst record throughout its entire history. Adding to the dismal display, Randle broke his leg in his NBA debut, immediately ending his season, and Bryant again suffered through various injuries, playing only 35 games. However, Clarkson had a sparkling rookie season, excelling in March and April once he received playing time, with averages of 17 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists over the last two months of the season.

Another ugly season led to another high draft pick, and with the help of some luck in the lottery, the Lakers were able to draft D’Angelo Russell, a star point guard, at #2 overall.

That’s where the team stands. It’s got an aging star who’s not a star any more (and is retiring after the season) and a couple of young studs. The team sits at an ugly 2-14, but there’s plenty of hope for the future.

In Philadelphia, there’s also hope, but the team took a far different path to get it.

The story of the present-day 76ers team began in 2013, when Sam Hinkie tore down the team to tank for a high draft pick. The team finished 19-63, but only got the third pick in the draft, with which they took Joel Embiid. Later on in the first round, the Sixers traded its 10th overall pick to Orlando for the 12th pick and a 2017 first rounder (which led to some hilarious awkwardness as I discussed here), and selected Dario Saric, who can’t come to the US until at least 2016.

After another horrific season at 18-64, the Sixers again had the third overall pick, and again took a big man, this time taking Jahlil Okafor out of Duke.

As Philadelphia stands now, it has a ton of solid players on its roster, from Nerlens Noel to Robert Covington to TJ McConnell to Nik Stauskas to Tony Wroten to Isaiah Canaan to Jerami Grant. It has a wealth of future draft assets (as Business Insider details here). It even has a couple of 2014 first-rounders coming in the future when Embiid finally makes his debut and Saric comes over from Turkey.

It’s clear that Hinkie is pushing all his assets into the future while imploring the team’s fans to “trust the process” and, despite the agonizing state of the present-day team, the plan is nearly guaranteed to work. Zach Lowe wrote over the summer that “if Philly is really willing to do this for five, six, or seven seasons, it almost cannot fail. It will either land a superstar or draft so many good players that they will gather a solid NBA team.”

Until that glorious future, however, Sixers fans are stuck with the current team. Despite its numerous quality players, it’s winless at 0-18. The team isn’t as bad as it record shows, though, as Philadelphia has had a lead in the fourth quarter of each of its last five games, only to fritter it away, resulting in agonizing loss after agonizing loss.

Tonight’s game against the Lakers is especially important, because, if the Sixers lose, they’ll set a record for the worst start to a season in NBA history. Luckily, Philadelphia is favored by 1.5 points, but if they lose again tonight, another shot at a victory may not come for a while.

Week 12 Picks for DFS and Against the Spread

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Here are the Week 12 picks along with a few players whose prices and match-ups combine to make them enticing plays this weekend in DFS.

Note: all home teams are in caps, all lines are from ESPN and are accurate at the time of writing, and that all prices for DFS are from DraftKings.

WASHINGTON +2.5 over Giants

Kirk Cousins has been money at home. He threw for three touchdowns and 317 yards against Tampa Bay last month and a couple of weeks ago, he tore through the Saints with 324 yards and four touchdowns on only 25 attempts. Yeah, New Orleans is awful at defense, but then again, so is New York. Only the Saints allow more overall yards per game than the Giants and its hapless secondary allows 309.9 passing yards each game, the worst in the league by 16.8 yards.

New York is missing its two best offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, so the Washington defense shouldn’t have any trouble getting to Eli Manning and he can’t throw touchdowns to OBJ while on his back.

This confluence of factors seems to point towards a Washington blowout victory. Kirk Cousins will set you back only $5300, a great price which will allow you to spend on other positions. The Washington D/ST at only $2000 makes it a fine play if you plan on punting the position as there should be plenty of opportunities for sacks and Manning hasn’t had one of his classic four-pick games yet this season, and we all know it’s coming soon.

JETS -4 over Miami

This one’s a toughie. This is a matchup of a pair of teams that make you feel awful abut betting on them. The Dolphins haven’t put together a solid victory against a half-decent opponent since Week 7 against Houston. The Jets, on the other hand, haven’t had one since October 18th, against Washington. The deciding factor for me is that the Jets won earlier this season in Miami, 27-14, but I’m not sure how much that means because Darrelle Revis is out for this game with a concussion. This game is screaming “STAY AWAY,” so let’s heed its advice and move on.

Oakland -0 over TENNESSEE

These are two up-and-coming teams and it’s a tough game to choose. While the Raiders have the better offense, the Titans have a very strong pass defense. Although Oakland has a good young quarterback in Derek Carr, Tennessee has one too in Marcus Mariota. I’ve been betting on Oakland for the last few weeks, and there’s not enough of a reason for me to stop now.

Delanie Walker is a name you should watch out for. Oakland is awful at defending tight ends, and Walker gets plenty of targets as Mariota’s safety valve. He’s priced at $5400, third-highest among tight ends, but he’s safe with a high ceiling, making him worth it.

KANSAS CITY -5.5 over Buffalo

The Chiefs are getting hot at the right time. After a five-game losing streak dropped them to 1-5, the team has won four straight in dominating fashion, with an average point differential of 22.75. The Bills aren’t doing too shabby themselves, with a couple of wins over the Jets and Dolphins followed by a competitive loss against New England, but they’re a weaker team than the Chiefs.

One important note: Charcandrick West is out for this game with a hamstring injury, meaning that Spencer Ware will take over as the lead back for Kansas City. Ware scored a pair of touchdowns on 101 all-purpose yards and is in line for another massive workload. At his $3800 salary, he’s a bargain.

Tampa Bay +2.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

Like the Eagles on Thanksgiving, I’m not sure why Vegas continues to make the Colts the favorite. With Andrew Luck, Indy would be the choice, but without him, the team just isn’t very good. Even at home, the team will need a lot of luck (sorry, I couldn’t resist) to defeat a suddenly very dangerous Tampa Bay.

St. Louis +10 over CINCINNATI

After an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football to the Texans, the Bengals bounced back with a somewhat less embarrassing loss to the Cardinals on Sunday Night Football. I fully expect the home team to win this game but St. Louis always seems to play close, competitive games, and Cincinnati doesn’t have the offensive firepower to score enough on the strong St. Louis defense to put the game out of reach early. Yeah, Case Keenum is awful, but Todd Gurley is a stud, and the Rams can just hand the ball off to him again and again to shorten the game, another way of preventing the Bengals from scoring a ton of points.

If Cincinnati is unable to take a big lead, any garbage time touchdown from St. Louis will pull the game within ten and give me the win.

JACKSONVILLE -5 over San Diego

The Chargers are down to Stevie Johnson, Dontrelle Inman, an oversized gravy boat, and an old boot as Philip Rivers’ wide receivers. That group doesn’t inspire much confidence, although I’ve heard that the gravy boat had a surprisingly good 40 time at the draft combine a couple of years ago. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have a pair of Allens at wide receiver, Robinson and Hurns. Robinson is a rising star, and Hurns has been very good too, so Blake Bortles should have no trouble ripping through San Diego’s awful secondary en route to a victory.

Johnson is $4500 and because he’s going to get a ton of targets, he’s a solid play at receiver, especially if you want to save money to allocate elsewhere.

HOUSTON -3 over New Orleans

The New Orleans defense can’t stop anyone. The lowest point total they’ve given up this season was twenty points to a Dallas squad missing Dez Bryant and Tony Romo. For the Texans, it doesn’t matter that their quarterback is a castoff from Cleveland, it doesn’t matter that their starting running back is averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and it doesn’t matter that they’ve only scored more than 26 points once this year. All that matters is that the Saints defense is coming to town. Even if Drew Brees throws five touchdown passes, his defense will allow six, so I’ll gladly lay the field goal and take the Texans

Accordingly, Brian Hoyer at a mere $5000 dollars is a bargain, and I would pay $12000 for DeAndre Hopkins, so at $9100, he’s a must-have. Having Hoyer on the cheap frees up money to get Hopkins, so that Hoyer/Hopkins stack is both enticing and easily attainable.

Minnesota -0 over ATLANTA

The Falcons have been awful lately. They lost to San Francisco. They haven’t had a good win since Week 4 against Houston. Nothing about this team makes me want to rely on them. On top of that, Devonta Freeman is out with a concussion. No thanks, Atlanta, I’ll pass.

Due to Freeman’s absence, Tevin Coleman will be Atlanta’s starting running back. He’s only $4300 so he’s a solid choice if you want to go cheap at running back. Plenty of touches will be freed up, so Julio Jones may get even more of a workload than usual. He’s the most expensive player in the league at $9400 so I’m generally not paying up for him, but if you can fit him under the salary cap, he’s a great player to have.

ARIZONA -11.5 over San Francisco

Last week I made the mistake of taking the points with San Francisco against Seattle. I’m not going to make that mistake again. The Cardinals should rip the Niners to shreds. Carson Palmer will score plenty through the air, and once Arizona is up big, they can simply hand the ball off to a resurgent Chris Johnson.

CJ2K is CJ4.6K in DFS, and due to the heavy workload he’s expected to have, $4600 isn’t much to spend on his guaranteed production.

Pittsburgh +3.5 over SEATTLE

Why is Seattle still considered to be among the best teams in the league? They’re still solid overall, but the trade for Jimmy Graham hasn’t worked out at all, Russell Wilson has been struggling, and the vaunted defense has become less of a strength as it’s turned into a stars-and-scrubs situation due to the huge new contracts handed out to Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman.

While Seattle’s offense has been poor, Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has one of the best offense in the NFL. The Seahawks won’t be able to pull away from the Steelers, so even if they win this game, I doubt it will be by much. Accordingly, I’m happy to take that extra half-point, so a Pittsburgh loss by a field goal still gives me the win.

New England -2.5 over DENVER

In Belichick we trust. The Patriots have lost Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola so their only proven pass-catchers are Brandon LaFell and Rob Gronkowski. The Broncos know this, and their elite defense can shut them down. Brock Osweiler was brock-solid last week against the Bears, but if he gets off to a brocky start, his team could be in for a rough night.

This is actually a matchup between the two top scoring defenses in the league so points will be put at a premium. In addition, snow is expected, making it even harder to score. This type of game is one that the Patriots often face at home in Foxborough, and it’s one that they often win.

CLEVELAND -3 over Baltimore

In an incredibly scintillating game, two teams with a combined five wins will square off. The Ravens don’t have their starting quarterback, their starting running back, or their best wide receiver. At this point, even Cleveland has better offensive weapons than Baltimore.

This game should be the antithesis of entertaining, unless you enjoy seeing ugly football games between subpar players on awful teams, in which case this is your game of the year.

The Cleveland D/ST is an intriguing play at a mere $2000 against a team led by the immortal Matt Schaub who, as we discussed last Thursday, was last seen throwing touchdowns to the other team in 2013. In addition, Josh McCown at $5000 and Gary Barnidge at $4800 are both decent options for those wishing to be contrarian.

We’re through the picks and it’s nearly time for football, so it’s time to finish off this article. If you enjoyed it, feel free to click the “Follow” button on the right side of your screen and to share this article. Check back in on Tuesday for another article, this time discussing the impending SuckBowl between the Lakers and Sixers taking place that night.

Fantasy Impact of Romo Injury

Thanksgiving Picks for DFS and Against the Spread

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Thanksgiving is a fine American tradition. The turkey, the family reunions, and the annual football game you play with your cousins that ends almost immediately when the rotund Cousin Dave claims he’s “cramping up”. Of course, the best tradition of them all is the ever-present football game on the TV that’s a perfect excuse to escape your Aunt Edna’s smothering hugs.

In the true spirit of Thanksgiving, let’s break down today’s games and in the true spirit of America, let’s do so from a gambler’s perspective.

(Home team in caps)

LIONS -2.5 over Eagles

Honestly, it’s amazing that it’s taken this long for Vegas to sour on the rapidly imploding Eagles. Last week they were somehow giving seven points against Tampa Bay. Yeah, the Bucs aren’t a spectacular team, but when was Philly even a solid team this season? Their best two games came against the Saints and the Giants, two teams that aren’t particularly good. Two weeks ago, they somehow needed overtime to beat a Cowboys team that was led by Matt Cassel. Need I say more?

Panthers +1 over DALLAS

Here’s a strange looking line: the undefeated Panthers getting a point against a 3-7 team. However, once you look at it a little more closely, the line starts to make a little more sense. For one, conventional wisdom states that home field advantage is worth three points, so this line shows that the oddsmakers think that Carolina is the better team by two points. Despite this, it still looks a little off. Again, once you break it down a little further, it makes plenty more sense. The Cowboys may be 3-7 this season, but they’re 3-0 in games started by Tony Romo and 0-7 in games started by the horrendous combination of Cassel and Brandon Weeden. So yeah, I still think the Panthers are the choice in this game, but at least there are clear reasons for Dallas being considered the favorite.

GREEN BAY -8.5 over Chicago

The Packers are looking to lay down the law. After a distressing three-game losing streak which included an embarrassing contest against the Lions, Green Bay demolished the Vikings last week to take back the lead in the NFC North. While the Bears are getting back Matt Forte, the linchpin of their offense, his return won’t help as much as you might think. The guy Forte will be replacing, Jeremy Langford, filled in spectacularly for him during his absence so the star’s return won’t be a massive upgrade. Additionally, Martellus Bennett, the tight end, has already been ruled out for the game, and Alshon Jeffery, the stud wide receiver, is questionable for tonight’s game and has been hobbled all year. The Bears have actually recovered somewhat from their 2-5 start to the season with two wins in their last three games, but on the road in Lambeau Field, the Pack Attack is the choice.

Now, since many state governments have decided that DFS is gambling, let’s proceed with that premise and talk about a few solid Thanksgiving DFS plays on DraftKings.

Jonathan Stewart, at a mere $5200, is one of the best plays of the slate. He’s getting a ton of carries, with a streak of six games and counting with at least twenty carries.

Devin Funchess is another worthy choice. He costs only $3900, and as we discussed in yesterday’s article, he’s becoming a much bigger part of the Carolina offense.

Calvin Johnson and Greg Olsen are the two studs I’d pay up for. Although expensive, both are the only reliable players at their positions.

None of the defensive matchups are appealing, so for your D/ST, why not choose Detroit? Priced at a reasonable $2200, the Lions face a Butt Fumble-led Eagles team which scored seventeen points last week. Sanchez threw in three interceptions for good measure.

As always, if you enjoyed this article, sharing it on social media would be much appreciated, but even if you don’t, good luck in all your gambling endeavors today, enjoy the turkey, and (ready for an awful pun?) thanks(giving) for reading.

Who is This Year’s CJ Anderson?

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Last year hundreds of thousands of fantasy leagues were decided by one player: CJ Anderson. Anderson came out of nowhere in Week 9 against the Raiders, racking up 163 all-purpose yards along with a touchdown, for 23.3 points in standard leagues. The next week he salvaged a poor rushing day with eight receptions for 88 yards. From then on, Anderson was a high-end RB1, with only one game below 18.5 points (standard scoring) the rest of the way.

There were other guys who broke out in the latter half of the 2014 season to carry teams to championships. Jeremy Hill was very good, but not nearly as good as Anderson. Odell Beckham Jr. was spectacular, but he was good before the stretch run for the average fantasy league.

Even though Anderson wasn’t owned before the stretch run and Hill and Beckham Jr. both were, there are two important similarities between these three players. Each took advantage of a struggling incumbent starter. Giovani Bernard ceded his job to Hill, Victor Cruz’s injury freed up a ton of targets for Beckham Jr., and Montee Ball was ineffective, which allowed Anderson to fill up that gap in production. Each player was new to the league. Hill and Beckham Jr. were rookies and Anderson was a second-year player who had seven touches across two games in his rookie season.

Let’s use these two criteria to find a few likely breakout candidates. This player needs to have been in the league for less than two seasons and have a starting job ready to be seized after an injured or ineffective starter vacated it.

First and foremost on this list is Thomas Rawls. With the recent news that Marshawn Lynch will be out for at least four weeks after a sports hernia surgery, the running back has a clear path to the starting job in Seattle. Rawls is a rookie, who went undrafted but was then signed by the Seahawks. Adding to Rawls’ appeal, in the four games Lynch has been out so far this season, Rawls has averaged 132.5 rushing yards on 21.5 carries, with three touchdowns. Those are RB1 numbers and with the shaky RB situation this season, Rawls could easily be a top-5 RB the rest of the way.

Javorius Allen is another easy choice. Like Rawls, he’s a rookie and the incumbent starter, Justin Forsett, broke his arm and is out for the season. Not only is the starting running back job his for the taking, the QB, Joe Flacco, is also out for the season after tearing both his ACL and MCL, with Matt Schaub set to take over. Schaub was last seen in 2013, setting a record by throwing a pick-6 in four straight games for the 2-14 Texans. I have a feeling the Ravens won’t give Schaub much responsibility, especially because their wide receiver corps doesn’t inspire any confidence. That’ll lead to a ton of touches for Allen, and in fantasy football, tons of touches equals tons of points.

In Kansas City, the Chiefs haven’t missed a beat after Jamaal Charles went down for the season with a torn ACL. Charcandrick West, took over the starting job and has produced RB1 numbers with a massive workload. Now, West, should be owned in any competitive league, but he went down with a hamstring injury this past week, opening the door for Spencer Ware to fill in. Ware’s in his third season, but until last week he had a total nine touches in his career. He doubled that on Sunday, totaling eleven carries for 96 yards and two touchdowns along with a five yard reception. Should West miss this week, Ware will have a chance to prove his viability as a feature back, a role which could provide him with the rich usage needed to be a bona fide fantasy stud.

Devin Funchess was a breakout pick at the start of the year. He’s a rookie, drafted in the second round out of Michigan. After Kelvin Benjamin tore his ACL before the season began, Funchess’ ADP began to rise. However, he did almost nothing for the first half of the season, and guys like Ted Ginn Jr. and Jerricho Cotchery soaked up the newly available targets. Over the last three weeks, Funchess has turned his season around, averaging three receptions for 59 yards and catching a pair of touchdowns. With his relative youth and the wealth of targets available to him, Funchess has a good shot at a solid finish to the season.

It’s tricky to predict how long players will be out from concussions, and although Devonta Freeman isn’t expected to miss more than a game from the one he suffered last week, should his ailment keep him out for longer, the Falcons will need to find someone to soak up the a ton of touches. Enter Tevin Coleman, yet another rookie, a third round pick out of Indiana University. He was actually expected to be the starter entering the season, but after an injury sidelined him for a couple of weeks, Freeman took hold of the job and never let it go. Now that Coleman has little competition for running back touches in the Atlanta offense for at least a week, could he perform well enough to steal back the job from Freeman? Admittedly, it’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

Last of all, one player with a shot to become this year’s CJ Anderson is…CJ Anderson. This is still only his third year in the league so youth is on his side. Denver’s QB combo of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler doesn’t inspire much confidence, so if Anderson can wrest the starting job back from Ronnie Hillman, he could have a spectacular stretch run, leading teams to victory for the second straight year.

Will the Sixers Win Before the Warriors Lose?

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According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the Warriors are favored in 65 out of their remaining 67 games. The only two games the Warriors are the underdogs in are its road games at San Antonio. That’s it.

The first of those two games is in the middle of March, the Warriors’ 68th game of the season. Now, Golden State will almost certainly lose before then, but the question is: When?

The Warriors don’t face a tough game until December 5th, the team’s 21st game of the season, when they’ll play the Raptors on the road. Even then, they’ll still be heavy favorites against a Toronto team that just lost Jonas Valanciunas to a hand injury.

It’s worthwhile to note that the Raptors gave the Warriors a serious scare when the teams last played, on November 17th. In that game, at Oracle Arena, the visitors barely lost by a score of 115-110.

Assuming Golden State gets past Toronto, the toughest game the team will face until Christmas is a road matchup with the Pacers. On Christmas Day, the Warriors will host the Cavs, which could be a challenging matchup. However, due to the league’s best home-court advantage, Golden State is still likely to cruise to a victory.

We need to fast-forward almost a month, to January 18th, for the next serious threat to Golden State’s perfect record. They’ll play Cleveland on the road to begin an imposing weeklong stretch that includes road games in Chicago and Indiana and a home game against San Antonio.

If I had to bet, I would guess that the Warriors lose their first game of the season during that stretch, between January 18th and 25th. I have to agree with ESPN: the Warriors don’t look like they’ll be losing any time soon.

However, although the Warriors have been dominant through the first month of the season, they still have a close competitor in making history and it’s not who you might think.

The 76ers are almost as bad as the Warriors are good, with an 0-15 mark to start off the season. They’re four losses away from passing the atrocious 2009-10 Nets for the worst start in NBA history. This could be the most riveting storyline of the next month or two: will the Sixers win before the Warriors lose?

Now that’s a far more compelling question. The next good chance Philadelphia has for a win is in a week, when they’ll play the Lakers at home on December 1st. However, if they can’t end the streak then, they’ll only have one quality shot at a victory in the next month, when they play Brooklyn in the Barclays Center on December 10th.

After that, the next solid opportunity the Sixers will have for a win is a couple of road games against the Kings and Lakers on December 30th and January 1st, respectively. If Philadelphia still doesn’t have a victory after that, well, they’ll have to wait more than a month for another winnable game, when they host the Nets on February 6th.

I think the losing streak will end against the Lakers next week. It’ll actually be quite dramatic. Assuming the Sixers lose their next three games, they’ll sit at 0-18 heading into the game. To avoid the ignominious accomplishment of owning the worst start in NBA history, that Lakers game will be a must win.

To answer the original question, it seems as though the scheduling gods want Philadelphia to win before Golden State loses. However, if the Sixers keep on losing and the Warriors keep on winning, each team setting a new record each and every game, an amazing game will be set for January 30th.

On that date, the Sixers could be 0-45 and the Warriors could be 46-0 when the two teams meet for the first time this season for a game in Philadelphia. Although the odds are a million to one against it, if Philadelphia managed to get its first win by handing Golden State its first loss, well, that would just be awesome.

Can Anyone Stop the Warriors?

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As Golden State nears a record-breaking 16-0 start to the season, it’s time to ask: Can anyone stop the Warriors?

In last night’s game against the Nuggets, the Warriors went to their super-small lineup. According to NBA.com, in two minutes, that lineup scored fourteen points. So, yeah, that’s pretty unstoppable.

That lineup consists of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, and Draymond Green and it’s unstoppable. All five players are capable three-point shooters, creating pristine spacing that they then take advantage of thanks to their unselfish passing. That’s what makes the Warriors so impossible to guard, and that’s how they’re able to score fourteen points in a mere two minutes.

However, many other teams could put out these sorts of lineups with five three-point shooters sharing the floor at once. What makes the Warriors unique is that they’re able to play five three-point shooters while surviving on defense.

How are they able to do this? Well, Green is the linchpin of the defense. Despite being only 6’7″, Green is capable of playing center. Without him, the rest of the scheme wouldn’t work at all.

Outside of Green, this lineup’s success stems from its incredible flexibility as all five of its members are between 6’3″ (Curry) and 6’8″ (Barnes). This similarity in size allows the team to switch at will, closing out on three point shooters, rotating around the floor to prevent drives to the basket, and being a whirring machine of defensive mayhem.

So many conversations concerning Golden State are about its offense, so to be contrarian we’ll focus on its defense. Let’s break down one crunch-time possession from Game 1 of last year’s Western Conference Finals that exhibits the system played to perfection, with Shaun Livingston in place of Andre Iguodala.

With twelve seconds left on the shot clock, James Harden drives down the middle of the floor against Thompson. Notice how all possible passing lanes are walled off.

Next, the ball gets poked away and Thompson and Green converge on Harden, trapping him in the corner. Barnes shifts off of Trevor Ariza in the opposite corner to guard Josh Smith next to the basket.

Harden manages to pass it out of the double-team, into the middle of the floor, creating a momentary four-on-three advantage for the Rockets. However, while against a lesser team, Smith would have been left open in the middle, against the Warriors, Barnes is already there, stopping him from getting an easy shot off.

Smith passes it out to Ariza in the corner, but Curry switches onto him, closing off a clear path to the rim. Livingston leaves Jason Terry (#31) alone to cover Curry’s man, Corey Brewer.

Ariza drives to the rim, Curry hot on his tail, but Barnes is at the rim to meet him. The shot clock is down to four seconds, which pressures Ariza to attempt a shot. At this point, Terry is open, but if Ariza managed to somehow thread a pass through across the floor while in mid-air, Thompson would be able to close out on him.

Ariza then fumbles the ball away and the Warriors close in. The ball gets knocked out of bounds and the Warriors get the turnover.

Just in the last twelve seconds of this possession, the Warriors are able to snuff out four threats (plus countless potential ones) by switching seamlessly.

It’s plays like these that great defenses excel at, all five players switching in unison, playing ferocious defense while still remaining under control. There’s nothing the Rockets could do to penetrate the swarming defense of the Warriors.

Even in the team’s starting lineup, with Andrew Bogut at center and Iguodala on the bench, the loss of some flexibility doesn’t prevent Golden State from keeping up the elite defense that was the best in the league last season by points per possession.

So far this year, Golden State has slipped all the way down to fifth in points per possession, and its offense is the best in the league, scoring 111.8 points per 100 possessions.

When a defense like this is paired with the best shooter in NBA history and a roster full of players who complement him perfectly, it’s hard to imagine the Golden State Warriors being beaten any time soon.