Tag Archives: Steph Curry

My NBA Awards Ballot

Last Wednesday night was absolutely ridiculous. Two record-setting performances occurring side-by-side on national television at the close of the regular season—that’s what we hope for when we watch basketball.

Anyways, after an exciting end to the regular season, as the playoffs begin, it’s time to dole out awards, most real and some made up. Let’s get started!

MVP: Stephen Curry

This was the easiest decision of all. Curry had a season for the ages, set records left and right, and led the best regular season team in the history of the NBA. There’s nothing more to say.

Best of the Rest: (2. Kawhi Leonard 3. LeBron James 4. Russell Westbrook 5. James Harden 6. Draymond Green 7. Kevin Durant 8. Chris Paul)

ROY: Karl-Anthony Towns

This was an easy trophy to award. Nikola Jokic was solid and Kristaps Porzingis was exciting, but the #1 overall pick had an exceptional all-around season for the up-and-coming Timberwolves.

Best of the Rest (2. Kristaps Porzingis 3. Nikola Jokic

LVP: Kobe Bryant 

It’s challenging to become the least valuable player in the NBA. It’s not enough to simply be bad; to win, a player needs to derail his team’s season due to his sheer awfulness.

Bryant doesn’t quite fit that mold; the Lakers weren’t expected to compete this season, so Bryant’s poor performances didn’t really affect anything. However, the pomp and fanfare surrounding his departure from the NBA hindered his team in accomplishing its goal for the season.

Kobe shot 35.8% this season on 16.9 attempts per game. Those seventeen inefficient shots each game could have gone to one of the Lakers’ many young players who need to gain NBA experience to reach their full potential.

Sure, Ty Lawson’s arrival threw a Rockets team that was expected to contend for a title completely off-kilter, and Derrick Rose’s high-volume, low-efficiency approach hurt the Bulls, but those two only affected this season. Bryant’s hideous campaign could hurt his team for years to come.

Best of the Rest: (2. Ty Lawson 3. Derrick Rose)

COY: Steve Kerr

This was the toughest category to choose. There are so many worthy candidates that picking just one feels like I’m doing a disservice to the others. At least six coaches deserve recognition for their performances this season.

Brad Stevens led a group of overachievers to forty-eight wins, carefully crafting effective lineups out of a variety of players.

Charlotte’s coach, Steve Clifford, turned the Hornets into a top-10 team by efficiency on both ends of the floor, one of only five teams to accomplish that. The other four? Golden State, San Antonio, Cleveland, and Los Angeles. Not too shabby.

Rick Carlisle took a Dallas team devastated by DeAndre Jordan’s betrayal to the playoffs, with superstars like 37-year old Dirk, Wesley Matthews coming off tearing his Achilles, and Chandler Parsons leading the way.

All Gregg Popovich did is turn in one of the best regular seasons in the history of the NBA while resting key players often in preparation for the playoffs.

Terry Stotts managed to get the Trailblazers the fifth seed in the West after losing eighty percent of the previous year’s starting lineup.

Meanwhile, Steve Kerr, after missing the first half of the season due to a back injury, helped the Warriors reach a record seventy-three wins.

These six coaches each are worthy of being the coach of the year, but since there can only be one, the record-setting individual is the best choice.

Best of the Rest (1A. Terry Stotts 1B. Gregg Popovich 1C. Rick Carlisle 1D. Steve Clifford 1E. Brad Stevens)

Best Game: Warriors 121, Thunder 118, OT, Feb. 27

This was another tough category to decide. Kobe’s final game was dramatic, with his push to end his career with sixty points a marvel. The marathon Pistons-Bulls game from December, a contest that went into four overtimes, was riveting. However, neither can compare to the exhilarating game between the Thunder and Warriors in late February.

That game had it all: Big deficits and big comebacks, clutch free throws, and what might be the season’s most thrilling play:

Ridiculous.

Best of the Rest: (2. Pistons 147, Bulls 144, 4OT, December 18 3. Lakers 101, Jazz 96, April 13)

EOY: Danny Ainge

Ange put together a loaded roster overflowing with young talent. His trades have given the Celtics one of the brightest futures in the league.

Bob Myers did little this past year, but his drafting over the preceding few years gave the Warriors their best players. R.C. Buford made his usual solid moves on the periphery, but landed LaMarcus Aldridge in free agency, changing the Spurs from one of the best teams in the league into one of the best teams of all time.

Myers and Buford both had customarily excellent years, but Ainge’s overall body of work is overwhelmingly spectacular.

Best of the Rest: (2. R.C. Buford 3. Bob Myers)

Best Hair: Jeremy Lin

This was a hotly contested competition this season, but in the end, there was no other choice.

Sure, Joakim Noah has a serious case for the trophy:

joakim-noah-letting-his-moppy-hair-flow_original_crop_north

And Elfrid Payton does too:

NBA: Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans

But no one can compare to Lin’s magnificent spiked mohawk:

jeremy-lin-hair

Not only is Lin’s hair awesome-looking, it has plenty of practical applications as well. Here’s Lin’s hair stabbing Jerryd Bayless in the eye while driving to the basket:

Lin-Jeremy-spiked-hair-pokes-face-of-Bayless

This pointy, menacing mop of hair sent Bayless reeling, giving Lin a clear path to the rim.

hair3.0.0

That’s a nearly unprecedented combination of wonderfulness and utility, similar to Jacob DeGrom’s flowing mane, giving Lin the prized Dr. J Memorial Trophy.

MIP: C.J. McCollum

Best of the Rest: (2. Isaiah Thomas 3. Kemba Walker 4. Stephen Curry)

SMOY: Jamal Crawford

Best of the Rest (2. Enes Kanter 3. Andre Iguodala)

DPOY: Kawhi Leonard

We finish off this awards ballot with our dear friend, the Sharktopus:

kawhisharktopuscarivanderyacht

Out of players who played in at least forty games, Leonard ranked 8th out of 325 in FG% difference, at -5.7%. That means that players that he defended shot 5.7% worse than they did against the rest of the league.

Draymond Green, Leonard’s main competitor for this award, ranks 6th, at -6.2%. How does Leonard have an edge?

Leonard is a great offensive player, but on defense, he’s able to shut down the best players in the NBA. Green’s defense is most valuable because he plays passable defense against centers, which gives the Warriors a big edge on the offensive end. However, when determining the DPOY, candidates should be judged solely on their defensive merits, not how their defensive flexibility creates an unstoppable offense.

Best of the Rest: (2. Draymond Green 3. Paul Millsap)

NBA Playoff Predictions

Round 1

Cleveland over Detroit (5 games)

Toronto over Indiana (7)

Charlotte over Miami (6)

Boston over Atlanta (6)

Golden State over Houston (4)

San Antonio over Memphis (4)

Oklahoma City over Dallas (4)

Los Angeles over Portland (5)

Round 2

Cleveland over Boston (7)

Charlotte over Toronto (6)

Golden State over Los Angeles (4)

San Antonio over Oklahoma City (7)

Conference Finals

Cleveland over Charlotte (5)

Golden State over San Antonio (7)

NBA Finals

Golden State over Cleveland (5)

Notes From Spurs-Warriors

Last night in San Antonio, the Spurs turned in a stifling defensive performance, holding the explosive Warriors to a mere seventy-nine points, over thirty-five below their season average.

LaMarcus Aldridge had a spectacular game, scoring twenty-six points while grabbing thirteen rebounds, and there was nothing Golden State could do to stop him. That’s what happens when Andrew Bogut is out. Draymond Green is a great player, but he never got a break from defending San Antonio’s big men. Furthermore, while Green’s low center of gravity allows him to capably guard much bigger players, it does nothing to stop them from shooting fadeaways over him, as Aldridge did repeatedly last night.

Still, that clearly wasn’t the problem last night, as the Spurs were able to score only eighty-seven points. The Warriors’ problem was that they were unable to score. More importantly, Stephen Curry was shut down and held to fourteen points on eighteen shots, an abysmal 34.7% true shooting percentage. For context, Curry’s TS% on the season is a league leading 67.5%, while players not noted for their sharpshooting, such as Rajon Rondo (49.8%), Kobe Bryant (46.3%), and Emmanuel Mudiay (42.7%, the worst mark in the league), have shot better over the course of the season than Curry did last night.

Now, the Warriors had lost six times before last night, but how repeatable are those losses? The Blazers beat the Warriors by shooting 17-30 from three and the Lakers beat them when they shot 4-30 from three. The Mavericks beat the Warriors when they were without Curry and Harrison Barnes and the Nuggets beat them by two when they were without Green. The Bucks beat the Warriors when they were coming off a double-overtime game the night before and the Pistons beat them by eighteen in the only game that there wasn’t a clear reason for why they lost.

None of these games, other than the one against Detroit, provide any valuable insight into how to beat Golden State. At first glance, last night’s game looks very similar to the Lakers game: the Warriors shot 25% from three, with Curry and Klay Thompson combining to go 2-19 from deep. Is that really something the Spurs can count on in the playoffs?

Here’s where the eye test comes in handy. Last night, Curry and Thompson weren’t missing wide-open shots; the Spurs didn’t give them any space. San Antonio hounded the Splash Brothers both on and off the ball, not giving them any room to operate. Helped by Kawhi Leonard and their league-best defense, the Spurs only allowed twenty-nine combined points from Thompson and Curry.

As always, the important question is whether or not this game provides a blueprint for how to beat the Warriors. To me, it’s somewhere in the middle.

On one hand, playing close and physical with Curry and Thompson is a recipe for success. However, not every team has the reigning DPOY on it.

I think it’s fair to say that last night’s game provided a way to beat the Warriors, but one that only the Spurs can follow. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not San Antonio will be able to maintain its defensive success in its next meeting with Golden State, on April 7th in Oracle Arena.

Is Thompson the Best Catch-and-Shooter in the NBA?

Just over a week ago, on NBA Countdown, Jalen Rose was discussing the upcoming game between the Warriors and Bulls. While doing so, he asserted that Klay Thompson is the best catch-and-shooter in the NBA. Is he right?

Before we can answer that question, first we need to determine exactly what a catch-and-shooter is.

The NBA defines a catch-and-shoot attempt as “any jump shot outside of ten feet where a player possessed the ball for two seconds or less and took no dribbles”. That’s a reasonable definition. To ensure that only real catch-and-shooters showed up in the rankings, I tweaked the requirements; this list is limited to players who play at least twenty-four minutes a game while attempting at least three threes per game. This leaves us with fifty-eight players in the NBA who qualify as true catch-and-shooters.

How does Thompson rank under those parameters?

The answer? Very well, but not the best.

He’s eleventh in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) with 61.4%. He’s behind superstars such as Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, and Kawhi Leonard, well-known three-point specialists including J.J. Redick, Khris Middleton, and J.R. Smith, and guys who you wouldn’t expect to be there like Jerryd Bayless and Patrick Beverley.

Thompson is tenth in catch-and-shoot three point percentage, again behind Curry, Leonard, and others. Again, he’s in the top fifth of the league, but he’s not quite the best.

However, Thompson is able to maintain his efficiency over far more three-point attempts than others. He leads the league with 6.3 catch-and-shoot attempts per game, 0.9 more than his closest competitor, Wesley Matthews. Matthews is closer to ninth place Curry than he is to first, showing how efficient Thompson is.

Similarly, Thompson leads the league in catch-and-shoot three-pointers made per game, with 2.8. This time, second place Curry is closer to eleventh place than he is to first.

Although we can’t say that Thompson is the most efficient catch-and-shooter in the NBA, his ability to maintain a relatively high level of efficiency over so many attempts speaks to his immense proficiency at catch-and-shooting.

In the end, while it’s not cut-and-dried, it’s a reasonable assertion to make that Klay Thompson is the best catch-and-shooter in the NBA.

How Did the Warriors Beat the Spurs?

I don’t think anyone was expecting the utter devastation the Warriors wrought upon the Spurs. I don’t think anyone was expecting Stephen Curry to explode for thirty-seven points in only twenty-eight minutes. I don’t think anyone was expecting San Antonio’s point differential to go down a full point. I don’t think anyone was expecting any of this.

The important question is: How did this happen?

The answer, simply, is that rather than running their usual motion offense, the Spurs decided to try their hands at running a bakery. The problem is that the only pastries they knew how to cook were turnovers (mostly apple ones). All (bad) jokes aside, the Spurs continually hemorrhaged possessions last night, giving the ball to the Warriors in a variety of ways.

Naturally, the multitudinous turnovers were a problem for San Antonio, but the fact that it’s bad to turn the ball over isn’t enough to explain the blowout. After all, it’s not like Golden State took particularly good care of the ball; it had twenty-one turnovers to San Antonio’s twenty-six (which is eighth-most out of 1348 team games played so far this season!).

In fact, just turning the ball over alone doesn’t matter all that much. Take a look at a graph:

Screen Shot 2016-01-26 at 6.22.05 PM

In this scatter plot, the x-axis is turnovers per game while the y-axis is winning percentage. As you can tell from the relatively even scatter of the graph, there’s only a very weak negative correlation (the r is -.36) between turnovers and winning percentage.

If turnovers don’t inherently affect winning, then why did they hurt the Spurs so significantly against the Warriors?

When a team turns the ball over, that often leads directly to a fast break, a facet of the game in which the Warriors excel. In fact, Golden State leads the league in fast break points with 20.7 per game, an impressive 2.76 standard deviations above the mean. To illustrate that number, take a look at a scatter plot of NBA teams and how many fast break points they have per game:

Screen Shot 2016-01-27 at 7.56.57 PM

Look how far the Warriors (the star in the upper right corner) are away from everyone else. In fact, they gap between them and sixth place is larger than the gap between sixth place and thirtieth!

Golden State is so aberrant in this regard, that, as shown by the following box plot, it qualifies as an outlier:

Screen Shot 2016-01-27 at 8.03.08 PM

As we can tell, Golden State’s offense relies a lot on fast breaks, and we’ve already covered how turnovers often lead to fast breaks. Now let’s take a look at San Antonio’s defense.

The Spurs allow 11.2 fast break points per game, ranking sixth in that category.  As seems to be customary between these teams, two strengths are in direct conflict.

In this case, the Warriors’ strength won out. They scored nineteen fast break points, about two points under their average, but roughly eight points more than the Spurs’ average.

Now, one important aspect of a fast-break is the “fast” part. The Warriors rank first in the NBA in pace, while the Spurs are the eighth slowest team in the league. Since Golden State was able to take control of the pace of the game, San Antonio was out of its element. It didn’t help matters that the Spurs’ average age is 30.5, the oldest in the league by over a year. In fact, that’s likely a significant part of why they play so slowly.

Anyways, to sum it up, the main reason the Warriors were able to dismantle the Spurs on Monday night was because they were able to take control of the pace of the game through forcing turnovers. Those turnovers allowed them to score plenty of fast break points, erasing one of San Antonio’s biggest strengths.

Here’s a bonus question: Did this game provide a blueprint for how to beat the Spurs?

I’ll put it simply: Do many teams have a guy who can do things in transition like this?

Yeah, I didn’t think so.

And aside from the otherworldly talents of Curry, the Warriors, as we’ve discussed, have a lot more going for them that other teams simply don’t have.

But even the Warriors haven’t figured out the formula to beating the Spurs.  San Antonio had nearly double its usual turnovers and Tim Duncan was sitting out. There were plenty of other factors that contributed to the blowout that are unlikely to recur all at once.

Although this clearly is not a death knell for the Spurs, it could be a chink in their formerly unbroken armor, and perhaps particularly skilled teams will now be able to exploit it.

 

Warriors vs. Spurs: Who’s Better?

Tonight, the Spurs and Warriors will meet for the first time this season, in Oracle Arena. Not only are these teams the two best in the NBA this season, they’re also two of the best in NBA history. In fact, here’s a list of every single team that has ever posted a point differential above plus-12 like the Spurs and Warriors have so far this season:

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 3.18.12 PM

So yeah, that’s ridiculous. Even better, the three other teams on that list all went on to win the championship. The problem is that the Spurs and Warriors can’t both win the championship. In fact, as both teams play in the Western Conference, only one team can even make it to the Finals. Accordingly, the Western Conference Finals (assuming both the Spurs and Warriors make it) will be the de facto NBA Finals, as the winner of that series will go on to the real NBA Finals to demolish whichever flawed team emerges from the East.

Tonight’s game is truly a clash of titans, one that is quite possibly the greatest regular season matchup in the history of the NBA.

In honor of tonight’s game, it’s time to figure out which team is better and should be considered the favorite to take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.

Offense

The Warriors lead the NBA significantly in points per game. They score 114.7 points per game, 6.2 more than the second place Thunder. The gap between the Warriors and the Thunder is the same as the gap between the Thunder and the ninth place Pelicans. To illustrate this point, here’s a graph of the points per game totals among NBA teams:

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 7.38.14 PM

That star in the upper right hand corner is the Warriors. Look at how far they are away from everyone else. In fact, they’re 3.27 standard deviations above the mean, meaning that, assuming a normal distribution, one would expect an offense to score as many points per game as them .05% of the time. That’s about once every sixty-seven seasons. Wow.

However, that point total is skewed somewhat by Golden State’s pace. They play at the second fastest pace in the league, averaging 101.75 possessions per game, behind only Sacramento. Meanwhile, the Spurs play far slower, at the sixth slowest pace in the league, averaging 95.91 possessions per game. That’s a difference of nearly six possessions per game, allowing the Warriors to average more points than the Spurs.

If, instead of points per game, we use points per hundred possessions, the gap between the Warriors and the rest of the league shrinks significantly:

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 7.37.41 PM

Here, the Warriors still lead the pack at 112.7 points per hundred possessions, but the Thunder (second at 109.2) and the Spurs (third at 108.8) follow close behind them.

Although Golden State’s offense is clearly the best in the game, the San Antonio’s isn’t all that far behind.

Edge: Warriors

Defense

The Spurs, similarly to the Warriors on offense, lead the NBA in points allowed per game by a significant margin, allowing a stingy 89.8 points per game. In fact, San Antonio’s defense (the star in the lower left corner) is nearly as far away from the rest of the league as Golden State’s offense:

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 7.38.03 PM

Golden State, on the other hand, ranks a mere eighteenth in points allowed per game, giving up 102.6 points per contest.

However, in addition to offensive numbers being skewed by pace, defensive numbers are skewed too. After all, it’s a lot easier to give up fewer points when you don’t have to face as many shot attempts.

To combat this, like we did with offense, let’s use points per hundred possessions:

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 7.37.24 PM

This change actually doesn’t affect the Spurs at all; in fact, it might even increase the gap between them and the rest of the league. However, the Warriors vault from eighteenth all the way up to third, a sizable jump.

Similarly to offense, while San Antonio’s defense is clearly the best in the NBA, Golden State’s isn’t too far behind.

Edge: Spurs

Chemistry

Golden State leads the NBA in assist percentage, as 68.5% of its field goals are assisted. San Antonio isn’t far behind, sitting in sixth place with an assist percentage of 61.7%. In addition, the Warriors are the proud owners of six of the eleven games this season in which a team accumulated thirty-five or more assists.

There are plenty of stats that I can use to show how great the Warriors’ chemistry is, but they can’t compete with the Spurs. No one can. A couple of years ago, San Antonio had this video made about them:

Sure, plenty of other teams pass, but have any of them had videos like this one made about them? I actually looked; there are none.

If you want something more recent, here are the Spurs earlier this season, destroying the Timberwolves:

I mean, just look at how disconsolate the Timberwolves are after the Spurs finally decided to score:

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 6.11.00 PM

That’s what the Spurs’ passing can do to a team.

Last of all, and best of all, who can forget the famous Spursgasm from a couple of years ago?

Good lord.

Big Edge: Spurs

Coaching

This might be the tightest category yet. Steve Kerr took over a Warriors team and, with largely the same roster, turned a 51-31 sixth seed into a 67-15 juggernaut. This season, with Kerr sidelined, Luke Walton has led the Warriors to a 39-4 start.

The Spurs have Gregg Popovich, the best coach in the league hands-down, and one of the best coaches of all-time.

No matter how good Kerr and Walton have been while helming Golden State, no one can equal Pop, but at least they’ve been able to come close.

Slight Edge: Spurs

Star Power

You’d think that this category would be an easy Warriors victory, but it’s a lot closer than you’d think. Each team has a superduperstar, Stephen Curry for the Warriors and Kawhi Leonard for the Spurs. Each team has a superstar, Draymond Green for the Warriors and LaMarcus Aldridge for the Spurs. The intrigue comes in the various supporting players.

San Antonio has so many good, solid players, from Tony Parker to Manu Ginobili to Tim Duncan to Boris Diaw to Danny Green. Even players buried a little deeper on the bench are still capable, like David West and Patty Mills.

On the other hand, Golden State has a far top-heavier rotation. Andrew Bogut is a solid center, Shaun Livingston is a good back-up point guard, and Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala are very good small forwards. Deeper on the bench are players such as Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa, and Marreese Speights, three players who are all decent, if unspectacular.

In the end, the Spurs’ superior depth doesn’t matter as the Warriors have a third star in Klay Thompson, giving Golden State the advantage in the final category.

Edge: Warriors

Verdict

No matter which team is better, the Warriors should be expected to win tonight due to their immense home court advantage, but, in the end, by the tiniest of margins, the Spurs are the superior team.

Final Edge: Spurs 

Notes From Bulls-Warriors

Last night, in addition to the Knicks-Jazz game, I watched the Warriors and Bulls square off in Chicago. Here are a few observations from the game.

Derrick Rose looked spectacular. His performance hearkened back to his MVP season in 2011, not only in what he did, but in how he did it. His first four baskets came on a twisting layup, a wild bank shot, a floater, and another banker.

Rose finished with twenty-nine points, many coming on those same sorts of ridiculous shots that barely anyone else in the NBA would even bother attempting.

The Warriors have become a spectacle. Throngs of fans show up early to games when the Warriors come to town, hoping to see magic happen. Stephen Curry is at the center of it all, but even so, it was surprising when the Bulls fans filling the United Center let out a mildly disappointed “Oh” when he missed his first three-point attempt.

The Bulls did one particularly strange thing early in the game. Many teams like to trap Curry on pick-and-rolls, knowing that to let him free is an invitation for a swished three-pointer. That trapping leads to four-on-threes for Golden State, but those are preferable to giving up an open shot to Curry.

While it makes sense to trap Curry, the Bulls strangely decided to trap Klay Thompson off a pick-and-roll, leading to a four-on-three led by Curry. Why in the world would they choose to do that? One has to assume that it was a gaffe of some sort, perhaps a miscommunication between the two defenders.

Shaun Livingston had a very nice game. He shot six-for-eight, scoring twelve points with five assists over sixteen minutes. Livingston, despite being a point guard, is 6’7″, and he used that size to his advantage last night, posting up smaller guards with ease.

Adding to his value, unlike most 6’7″ players, Livingston can defend point guards. Even better, he fits in well with Golden State’s whirring machine of defensive perfection as he’s able to switch seamlessly with all the other similarly sized players the warriors have (click here for a breakdown of Golden State’s switching capabilities on defense).

Midway through the second quarter, Rose dove at Curry’s knees on a closeout, leading to three free throws. I don’t know about you, but I never realized that Steph Curry was actually Rob Gronkowski.

The Warriors ended up destroying the Bulls 125-94. This win is a big boost for Golden State; after smashing the Cavs apart in Cleveland on Monday by thirty-four points, beating another top contender in the East by thirty-one is a something to be proud of. Even better, it comes on the heels of a poor three-game stretch consisting of a pair of road losses to the Nuggets and Pistons sandwiching a home win against the Lakers.

This victory sends the Warriors home for a three-game stay at the Oracle Arena against three playoff teams, including Monday night’s matchup against the Spurs, which promises to be one of the best games in the NBA this season.