Catching Up on the NBA

My picks are already looking awful. Anthony Davis and Bradley Beal have been hurt. The Pelicans have been plagued by injuries. Washington has been average at best. Without Corey Brewer’s miracle three-point attempt to send last night’s game to overtime, the Rockets would be an atrocious 4-8. Nothing at all has been working out as planned so far.

Well, almost nothing. The Warriors have been customarily dominant. If you follow basketball at all, I’m sure you’ve seen amazing stats lauding the team for their historic achievements, but here’s one you probably haven’t heard: the Warriors are currently on pace to go 82-0, shattering the 72-10 mark set by the 1995-96 Bulls.

All jokes aside, Steph Curry has been insane. I’ve watched a few of Golden State’s games so far, and every time he takes a shot, it seems to be almost a technicality when it goes in. A couple of weeks ago, the Warriors were down to the Clippers late in the game, and Curry just took over and Los Angeles couldn’t do anything to stop him.

Curry’s the clear frontrunner for MVP at this point and he’s way ahead of the pack. Who can challenge him? LeBron is resting for the playoffs, Davis has been hurt, John Wall hasn’t been great, Kevin Durant has been hurt, and James Harden has been an inconsistent player on an inconsistent team. Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook are my 2-3 behind Curry, but who’s next? Honestly, it might be Andre Drummond. That’s just weird.

In other news: Young Kristaps is everyone’s new favorite player. Young Kristaps has been surprisingly great so far for the Knicks. For all the talk about how he’s a project and how he’s a year or two away, he’s been really really good. Earlier this week, he put up a 29-11 double-double on an efficient 17 shots. He’s been able to shoot threes effectively (including an almost game-winner against Charlotte that was just after time expired) while being a force down low. He’s thrown down a few monstrous put-back dunks (including this beauty against the Raptors) and has been able to serve both as a stretch-four when on the court with Robin Lopez and as a more conventional big man when playing alone.

I think it’s hilarious what’s been happening in Brooklyn so far this season. They’re absolutely, unequivocally atrocious and seem OK with it. That’s a perfectly reasonable thing to do. After all, tanking has worked in the past and the Sixers have been happy to lose again and again over the past few years in the hopes of landing a franchise player. However, the so-called “brain-trust” in Brooklyn seems to have forgotten one important detail: They don’t own their own pick. So while Brooklyn’s incessant losing will likely result in the acquisition of a franchise player, that franchise player will be heading to Boston as part of the Pierce-Garnett-Terry trade from a couple of years ago. While we’re here, I can’t get over how lopsided that trade was. Exploring the ramifications of that horrendous trade might be worth an article in the near future.

Anyways, as we can see, the NBA isn’t lacking in storylines. We haven’t talked at all about the competitive Rookie of the Year race or the exciting young teams coalescing in Orlando and Minnesota or Kobe Bryant’s quest to miss the most shots in the history of the NBA. We’ll discuss all of this, and more, in the future, but for now, let’s just enjoy the impending bloodbath between the Warriors and Clippers on national TV tonight.

NBA Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming NBA season. Let’s check back in six months to see how poorly I did.

I’m very high on Houston, as I think they’ll win the championship. A quick explanation of my reasoning: They’re the deepest team in the league, with quality players up and down the roster, they have two studs (Dwight Howard, Ty Lawson), and one superduperstar (James Harden). I wouldn’t pick them to win the championship if my life depended on it–if it did, I’d go with a safer pick in Golden State or Cleveland–but I think they’ve got as good a shot at it as any other team and besides, everyone else is picking the Warriors or Cavs so it’s a lot more fun to go out on a limb with the Rockets.

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the upcoming NBA season:

(Ranked in order of record, not seed)

Eastern Conference

  1. Washington
  2. Cleveland
  3. Chicago
  4. Boston
  5. Indiana
  6. Atlanta
  7. Miami
  8. Milwaukee
  9. Toronto
  10. New York
  11. Detroit
  12. Orlando
  13. Charlotte
  14. Brooklyn
  15. Philadelphia

Western Conference

  1. Golden State
  2. Houston
  3. LA Clippers
  4. San Antonio
  5. Oklahoma City
  6. New Orleans
  7. Utah
  8. Memphis
  9. Phoenix
  10. Minnesota
  11. LA Lakers
  12. Denver
  13. Portland
  14. Dallas
  15. Sacramento

Round 1

Golden State over Memphis (5 games)

Houston over Utah (6)

LA Clippers over New Orleans (6)

San Antonio over Oklahoma City (7)

Washington over Milwaukee (5)

Cleveland over Miami (5)

Chicago over Atlanta (5)

Boston over Indiana (7)

Round 2

GS over San Antonio (7)

Houston over LAC (7)

Washington over Boston (5)

Cleveland over Chicago (5)

Round 3

Houston over GS (6)

Cleveland over Washington (6)

NBA Finals

Houston over Cleveland (7)

Awards

MVP: Anthony Davis (Runners-up in some order: James Harden, Stephen Curry, John Wall)

DPOY: Rudy Gobert (Draymond Green, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis)

COY: Alvin Gentry (Billy Donovan, Randy Wittman, Brad Stevens, Gregg Popovich, Frank Vogel)

EOY: Daryl Morey (Doc Rivers, RC Buford, Danny Ainge)

ROY: Karl-Anthony Towns (D’Angelo Russell, Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay)

MIP: Bradley Beal (Kris Humphries, Kelly Olynyk)

SMOY: Isaiah Thomas (Justise Winslow/Luol Deng)

CPOY: Kevin Durant (Paul George, Kobe Bryant)

Best Odds to Win Conferences and Championship

Washington +1800 to win EC

Houston +1000 to win WC

Washington +5000 to win NBA Finals

Houston +1600 to win NBA Finals

Over/Unders

Atlanta: 49.5: Under

Boston: 42.5: Over (Best Bet)

Brooklyn: 28.5: Under

Charlotte: 32.5: Under

Chicago: 49.5: Over

Cleveland: 56.5: Under

Dallas: 38.5: Under (Best Bet)

Denver: 26.5: Under

Detroit: 33.5: Over

Golden State: 60.5: Over

Houston: 54.5: Over (Best Bet)

Indiana: 42.5: Over

LAC: 56.5: Under

LAL: 29.5: Under

Memphis: 50.5: Under (Best Bet)

Miami: 45.5: Over

Milwaukee: 43.5: Over

Minnesota: 25.5: Over

New Orleans: 47.5: Over

New York: 31.5: Over

Oklahoma City: 57.5: Under

Orlando: 32.5: Over

Philadelphia: 21.5: Under

Phoenix: 36.5: Under

Portland: 26.5: Under

Sacramento: 30.5: Under

San Antonio: 58.5: Under (Best Bet)

Toronto: 45.5: Under

Utah: 40.5: Over

Washington: 45.5: Over (Best Bet)

The NBA All-Crazy Team

Throughout the NBA season, teams are constantly being made. All-Star teams, All-NBA teams, even All-Rookie teams. However, one team that no one’s ever made is the All-Crazy team, where the only qualifications for getting on the team are being an active player and an absolute head-case.

We can’t create a full five man lineup in the space available to us, but honestly, the three guys on this team can out-crazy any five man group in the entire NBA.

A vital building block for our team is Rajon Rondo. This guy single-handedly wrecked a Mavericks team that had been blitzing the league before his arrival. Rondo lazily took too long bringing up the ball on the court and got called for an 8-second violation. He was so awful that the Mavs benched him, their starting point guard…in the middle of the playoffs! He lost tens of millions of dollars for his craziness, and, even worse, now plays for Sacramento.

Matt Barnes is a cinch for the next spot. Did Barnes drive 95 miles to go fight Knicks coach Derek Fisher over Fisher’s romantic involvement with Barnes’ ex-wife? Yes. Did Barnes get fined $50,000 for insulting James Harden’s mom? Yes. Did Barnes start ISIS? Probably not. Barnes’ value fell so far that, over the summer, he was traded for Luke Ridnour. Does that even require a joke?

Last of all, let’s welcome Metta World Peace as the final member of our trio, although this is more of a career achievement award. All you need to know about his qualifications for being on this team is that he changed his name to Metta World Peace. Oh, and he was a main participant in the Malice at the Palace and received the longest suspension in the history of the NBA. That too.

I bet that, somewhere, Vivek Ranadive is sitting in his office reading this article, and is probably wondering why there’s no Crazy Executive of the Year Award. If there was, he’d have it in the bag. For the sake of Kings fans everywhere, let’s hope Ranadive doesn’t console himself by trading three first rounders to the Raptors for Patrick Patterson.

It’s Official: The Mets are Back

I can’t stay quiet about this.

On Sunday Night Baseball, on national TV, I just watched the Mets finish off a sweep of the Nationals team that was picked by everyone in the world to run away with the NL East this season.

Everyone in the world was wrong.

Washington may end up winning the division, but, as of now, the Mets are tied with them atop it, and they’re not going away without a fight.

I was eight years old the last time the Mets were relevant, way back in 2008. Since then, all I’ve gotten to see has been season after season of win totals in the 70s and empty seats in Citi Field.

But that’s over now.

Sure, more fans are coming to the games, but you can figure that out from ticket sales. More important is that, for the first time in years, us fans are emotionally invested in this team.

For instance, last Wednesday night, as has been discussed countless times since then, Wilmer Flores cried on the field after hearing that he had been traded from the team he’s been part of for a third of his life.

Of course, he heard incorrectly and remained with the team, but nonetheless, Mets fans have been making it up to him. Chants and cheers have greeted him each time he’s stepped up to the plate, and on Friday night, he reciprocated.

On a 1-1 count, in the bottom of the twelfth inning, Flores slammed a walk-off home run, and the stadium erupted.

The next day, Flores went 0-4, so Lucas Duda was the hero, driving in all three Met runs with a double and a couple of solo homers.

And then Sunday night. Two outs and a man on first. Curtis Granderson hits a homer. The next pitch, Daniel Murphy does the same. And after a hit from the newly acquired Yoenis Cespedes, Duda hits yet another home run. That makes it nine home runs in his last eight games, an feat unprecedented in Mets history.

Now we have to talk about Cespedes. He’s a rental and a very good player, not a great one, but honestly, who cares? Sandy Alderson finally made the big splash that us Mets faithful have been dreaming about, proving that our pleas are not in vain, and that he’s been listening all along.

Even better, what did the Mets give up? A couple of minor league pitchers, who, even if they’re good, won’t make it onto the team because of the wealth of starting pitching the Mets currently enjoy.

Here’s a fun fact that illustrates the amazing combination of youth and talent the Mets’ starters possess. The three Mets starters over the weekend pitched 21 2/3 innings, gave up 5 earned runs, and struck out 25. Their combined age? 75.

No wonder no one wants to face the Mets in the playoffs.

In addition to Cespedes, Alderson made a couple of under-the-radar moves that improved the team, acquiring Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson from the Braves and Tyler Clippard from the Athletics. In both trades, Alderson gave up little of value, but added a couple of useful hitters and an elite reliever. In fact, because Jeurys Familia had pitched the last three games, Clippard earned the save in Sunday’s game.

The hitting is passable, especially now that Cespedes has been added, but at this point, they only need to score three runs to win.

With an improved lineup and dominant pitching the Mets are on the road to October baseball. And after sweeping the Nationals I think it’s now official: the Mets are back.

Breaking Down the Rays Rotation

The Tampa Bay Rays have overcome a slew of injuries to important parts of their team to remain in the running for the AL East crown, a single game out of first place. Now, though, some of those players are coming back.

Today we’re going to focus on the pitching side of the ledger, where the Rays’ entire starting rotation is fantasy-relevant.

We’ll begin with one of the early contenders for the AL Cy Young, Chris Archer, who has been absolutely phenomenal. There have been five starts out of seventeen total in which Archer has given up more than two earned runs. His 133 strikeouts rank fifth-best in all of baseball. In any way you spin it, Archer has been a top starter this season. His FIP supports his ERA and his success is likely to continue. Invest with confidence.

Next up is Jake Odorizzi, who was nearly as good as Archer before going down with an oblique injury last month. Odorizzi made his first rehab start on Wednesday, and it went as hoped, with a run, two hits, and a walk over four innings. The Rays are still deciding whether or not to have Odorizzi make another rehab start before activating him, but either way, time is running out to buy low. Odorizzi will come cheap comparatively, but expect him to pitch on par with top-20 starters such as Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha.

Like Odorizzi, Drew Smyly is injured, but Smyly isn’t expected to return from his shoulder injury until some time in August. Since coming over to Tampa Bay in the David Price trade last year, Smyly, in ten starts, has an ERA of 1.96 while striking out over a batter an inning. There’s no way he’ll keep it up over a full season, of course, but even once regression hits, Smyly will be a valuable asset for any team. He’s unowned in 68% of Yahoo leagues, and while there’s no need to pick him up now, as his return creeps closer, it would make sense to take a low-risk flier on him.

Matt Moore made his season debut yesterday against the Indians, giving up four runs over 4.2 innings in his first start in over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’s young, talented, and has nearly a strikeouts an inning over his career. There’s a lot of upside here. Until he shakes off the rust, it’s wise to monitor him closely from the sidelines, but once he does, Moore could be one of the best free agent pickups of the second half.

The fifth starter in the Rays’ fully healthy rotation is Nate Karns. Karns hasn’t lasted more than six innings in any of his last nine starts, capping his upside, but he’s safe and consistent, with only four starts all year in which he’s given up more than two runs. He’s helpful in strikeouts, and can help add counting stats while improving your ratios. Karns isn’t good enough to be owned in most leagues, but he’s an elite streamer and should be targeted each time he pitches.

There are three more pitchers who have made starts for the Rays this year: Matt Andriese, Erasmo Ramirez, and Alex Colome. Andriese has already been sent to the minors to free up his rotation spot for Moore, and Ramirez and Colome are likely to follow once Odorizzi and Smyly return. Colome is irrelevant for fantasy, but whenever either Andriese or Ramirez makes a spot start, they could be useful as streamers when they’re pitching at home, in the spacious Tropicana Park, or whenever either has an advantageous matchup.

Have a happy 4th of July weekend, everybody!

Six Rules Good Commissioners Follow

There are two things that can destroy fantasy baseball leagues: negligent owners and bad commissioners.

With owners who don’t pay attention, there’s nothing you can do until the end of the season, when you can kick them out, but the problem of having a Roger Goodell as the commissioner of your fantasy league can be easily addressed.

Keeping that in mind, here are six rules that all commissioners should follow, and if yours doesn’t, well, it might be time to find a new one.

1. It’s everyone’s league: You may run it, but your league belongs to everyone in it. Making decisions by yourself and ignoring the input of others is the fastest way you can get everyone in your league to despise you.

2. Remember that your league is a democracy: This is a corollary of the last rule. You volunteered to run your league, but only because everyone else agreed to let you do it. If you ever feel like you’re getting too haughty, remind yourself that just as they gave you power, they can take it away.

3. Use your veto sparingly: There is only one reason that you should ever exercise your right to veto a trade: if one owner is purposely making his team worse. There’s no other acceptable reason. If some idiot decides to trade Max Scherzer for Jose Quintana and thinks he’s making his team better, then that’s fine. You can try to talk him out of it, you can tell him he’s an idiot, and you can kick him out after the season, but unless he’s purposely trying to make his team worse to make the other team better then there’s nothing you can do.

4. Make sure everyone knows the rules of the league: This is simple. The best thing for you to do to address this problem is to write down all the rules onto a so-called “League Constitution”, print it out to give copies to everyone, and have each owner sign it. This was a problem for me last year when I joined a league midway through the season. The league actually had a written constitution, which I read and signed, but what the commissioner didn’t tell me was that co-managing wasn’t allowed. During the summer, one of the regular owners was away, and when I inquired about a potential trade, he directed me to someone who was running his team for him at the time. I ended up completing a trade with that co-owner, but when the commissioner realized that I had negotiated with him, the trade was retroactively vetoed and somehow, I was blamed for the whole mess. Always make sure that everyone knows the rules because if you don’t, then you lose the right to punish people for transgressing them.

5. Be transparent: If you make a rule then always have a reason. More importantly, have a good reason. Yeah, if you want to eliminate saves as a category, not having any closers is a reason, but obviously it’s not one that anyone else will accept. Before you do anything, make sure you’re able to explain it to your league.

6. Put the league before yourself: This is the big rule of thumb that every rule in this post falls under. Everything you do should be to improve the league, not to help your own team. It’s not complicated or hard to do, but it’s the most important rule of all.

Also, one quick NBA note: last Wednesday, the Nets held a Mason Plumlee meet-and-greet at the Barclays Center. On Thursday, the Nets traded hm. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2015 Brooklyn Nets!

Mailbag: Jason Heyward and Joey Gallo

Mailbags are a useful tool for identifying the most pressing topics on the minds of fantasy owners. Receiving questions along the lines of which players to pick up, whose streak will continue, and who to sell high on all contribute to a more reader-oriented blog, where the topics I write about are more relevant to what you, the reader, are interested in.

Questions are always appreciated, and you can feel free to email me any queries you might have at sushi.krox@gmail.com with the subject “SushiOnSports” or simply to comment on one of my posts.

Now that we have the introduction out of the way, let’s discuss a question I recently received from a reader:

is Jason Heyward’s resurgence for real? What’s up with Joey Gallo?
–Noah

To address the first part of Noah’s question, let’s first provide some background. Heyward was drafted in the top 100 picks in most leagues and was expected to provide stolen bases with some power. Through the first third of the season, it looked like his owners had no shot at recouping their original investment, culminating in an article from a couple of weeks ago where I questioned why he was still owned.

I guess Heyward reads this blog because just a couple of days after I wrote that post, he went on an absolute tear. In the two weeks since that article, Heyward has raised his average twenty points, his OBP thirty points, stolen two bases, and racked up four home runs, nine runs, and ten RBIs.

Despite this recent surge, Heyward doesn’t seem to be improving substantially. His BABIP over this time period is a fluky .370 and his walk rate is below his career average (although still higher than this season before this streak). The one positive is his strikeout rate, which is much better during the last two weeks than it’s been during this season and throughout his whole career.

Here’s the problem with reading into this streak at all: it’s been only fifteen games, an extremely small sample size. The only thing that the streak has done is bring his seasonal numbers up to acceptable totals. My advice is to sell, and to sell fast while his stats look good. He’ll continue to steal bases and perhaps knock in a few runs, but Heyward is not going to end up with stats even somewhat similar to what he’s put up over the past couple of weeks.

Next, we’re on to Joey Gallo, whose lightower power is his claim to fame. When he was surprisingly called up to the majors after Adrian Beltre was injured, Gallo was supposed to be a three true outcomes type of hitter, and he’s lived up to that billing. His per-162 games stats are 74 walks, 34 home runs, and a record-shattering 263 strikeouts, beating out Mark Reynolds 2009 season by 40 punchouts.

In regular 5×5 leagues, Gallo is a significant asset, helping in four categories. In OBP leagues, he’s even more valuable. However, in any league that counts strikeouts or any kind of hit other than home runs, then he’ll be less valuable. In 5×5 and OBP leagues, I’d hold onto Gallo, but in any other league, I’d rush to trade him.

Honestly, I would have traded him the second he was called up. People always love rookies because they’ve never failed before, and that’s a tendency that discerning owners can take advantage of. For instance, Kyle Schwarber came up for a week and dominated. If anyone in your league thinks he’s going to be Miguel Cabrera this season with catcher eligibility, then take advantage of that. Another opportunity to use this principle is with Jose Fernandez. Although he’s not a rookie, he hasn’t pitched so far this year so he’s still got a 0.00 ERA. In fact, I own Jose Fernandez in my home league and ever since it came out a couple of weeks ago that he would be making his season debut on July 2nd, I’ve been trying to see if anyone would overpay for him.

Speaking of selling high, remember my Buy-Low, Sell-High article from a few weeks ago about the right way to buy low and sell high? If you haven’t read it yet, it’s useful to read, but there are a couple of young third basemen right now who match the definition I gave of players to sell high on to the letter: Todd Frazier and Nolan Arenado.

Both have been scorching hot recently, particularly Arenado. Frazier’s hit seven home runs in his last eleven games while Arenado’s mashed eight in his last seven. I had the misfortune of playing against Arenado this week when he had more games with multiple homers than games without any. Both players were good before their streaks and seem to have vaulted into the upper echelon of fantasy baseball. Both players are almost certainly not going to continue to be as amazing as they’ve been, even though they’ll still be very good players. If you’re lucky enough to have one of these players, then you have a magnificent sell-high opportunity. Don’t let it pass you by.

The 2015 NBA Draft Diary

Hello all, and welcome to the 2015 NBA Draft Diary. This is our second straight year recording the draft in this format (here’s last year’s: https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/the-2014-nba-draft-diary/) and it should be as great as the last one.

Although I doubt this draft will reach last year’s hilarious high when Zach LaVine couldn’t hide his dismay at having to play for Minnesota, there’s a similar amount of doubt about what will happen.

Last year, no one knew what was going to happen at the top between Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, and Joel Embiid. This year, Karl-Anthony Towns is the consensus number one pick, but the next few picks are muddled.

The Lakers are able to dictate what will happen for the rest of the draft from their perch at number two. They get to choose between a wealth of talented players; Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell. and Kristaps Porzingis are all options at their pick.

Philadelphia, at number three, could be trapped if the Lakers take Russell. That’d leave them with a choice between the two big men, Okafor and Porzingis, when they already have Nerlens Noel and Embiid, or reaching a little to address a need.

The Knicks, at number four, are hoping that Russell drops to them, as he’s a good fit for Phil Jackson’s fabled triangle offense. Of course, Isiah Thomas has talked about trading the pick for a veteran in a win-now move. Wait, did I say Isiah Thomas? Whoops, I meant Phil Jackson, although it’s easy to get the two confused, especially if Jackson trades away this pick. Let’s hope he doesn’t make that trade for the sake of all the scarred Knicks fans at the Barclays Center tonight.

The most important quality teams are looking for in this draft is positional flexibility, meaning that they want a player who can defend multiple positions on the defensive end. Why is this? Well, the Warriors just won the NBA title in part because of a switching machine on defense. Draymond Green is getting a max contract this summer in part because he can defend all five positions credibly. Justice Winslow, a wing, and Willie Cauley-Stein, a big man, are both highly ranked players who can defend multiple positions at elite levels, particularly Cauley-Stein.

My personal favorite player this draft is Frank Kaminsky. To me, he seems to be exactly what NBA teams are looking for nowadays, big men who can shoot threes, run the floor, and play decent defense. Kaminsky can be one of the first ever stretch-5s.

There’s one important domino yet to fall: DeMarcus Cousins. His screwed-up team, the Kings, and its screwed-up owner, Vivek Ranadive, are considering firing George Karl four months after they hired him. If they trade Cousins, either because they side with Karl against him or because he gets fed up enough with their BS that he finally demands a trade.

Anyways, the draft is about to start, so let’s end this bloated introduction and begin!

7:35: Adam Silver opens up with the same type of speech that he gave last year, going through the reigning champions and where players integral to their team were drafted.

7:39: As expected, Towns is selected first overall.

7:39: Now the real intrigue begins. As we discussed earlier, what the Lakers do here will set the tone for the rest of the draft.

7:40: Apparently the Timberwolves are the first team to ever have three consecutive first overall picks on their team, with Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, and now Towns.

7:41: In its congratulations to Towns on its Twitter, Kentucky used this hashtag: #succeedandproceed. Calipari definitely isn’t shy about his team-building strategy.

7:45: The Lakers take…

7:46: D’Angelo Russell.

7:46: Can’t quibble with that pick. Okafor is the most NBA-ready player in the draft, with a developed post-up game, but the Lakers already have an elite post-up threat down low in Julius Randle. Also, if they took a defensive sieve in Okafor, along with creaky old Bryant and Randle, they might somehow be worse at defense than they were last year. Taking Russell also allows the Lakers to shift Jordan Clarkson out of the starting lineup into a role as a sixth man where he’ll be valuable instant offense off the bench. Russell just works better for the Lakers on so many levels.

7:50: Also, thinking more about Okafor, the Lakers could just look across their stadium at the Clippers. DeAndre Jordan was unplayable for swaths of time in the playoffs because he couldn’t shoot free throws. Okafor, while not as bad as Jordan, is still only a 51% free throw shooter, making him a liability. To me, that’s significant enough of a risk that it’s tough to look past it, especially because Jordan is an elite defensive center while Okafor, well, is not. Because of this, it wouldn’t be as surprising as it might otherwise be if he dropped a little in the draft.

7:52: Conspiracy Theory Alert: Maybe the Lakers didn’t take Okafor because they have a wink-wink agreement with Kevin Love to come to Los Angeles and won’t have a starting spot for Okafor.

7:53: Philadelphia’s pick is in. Let’s see what Sam Hinkie does…

7:55: Okafor.

7:55: There are a couple of ways to spin this: either Hinkie is seriously worried about Embiid and decided that he needed another big man, or he’s just sticking to his overall strategy of taking the best player available, believing that talent will work itself out in the end.

7:56: In the crowd, a Sixers fan was holding up a sign, reading “#trusttheprocess”. At this point, that’s really the only thing Philly fans can do, but that’s depressing nonetheless.

7:58: I guess Okafor’s woes on the defensive end could be less glaring when playing next to the defensive force named Nerlens Noel. That’s a bright side, I guess.

7:59: Ooh! Just thought of another positive: Okafor’s poor free throw shooting won’t become a serious problem in the playoffs because the Sixers won’t make the playoffs any time soon.

8:00: Jalen Rose’s team needs for the Knicks is “Everything”. Ugh.

8:02: The Knicks take Porzingis.

8:02: Some Knicks fans in the crowd appear to be pleased but most seem extremely upset.

8:03: C’mon Knicks fans, look on the bright side: At least Jackson didn’t trade the pick. That’s a positive, isn’t it?

8:05: This pick is risky, obviously, because they’re taking a foreign player, but more importantly, it’s just a really bad fit. Carmelo Anthony is most valuable at power forward but Porzingis’ natural position is at the 4.

8:10: Orlando takes Mario Hezonjav, another Eastern European, fifth overall.

8:11: Another risky pick and another bad fit. Hezonja is a shooting guard, but they’ve already got Victor Oladipo, an established player who’s still young and getting better, at that position. It just doesn’t seem worth it to me. I would have rather seen them go with Justise Winslow here, as their only weak spot in their starting lineup right now is at small forward and teams can always use an elite defender, particularly when that player can defend multiple positions.

8:17: Willie Cauley-Stein to Sacramento at sixth overall. Interesting pick. Cauley-Stein is a center, just like Cousins, but at least he’s flexible and an amazing defender, making him a fit pretty much anywhere. Still, it’s curious that they’d pick him when it might offend Cousins enough that he’d insist on being traded.

8:24: Another interesting pick as the Nuggets select Emmanuel Mudiay with the seventh pick.

8:25: My favorite thing about Mudiay is that he realized that the NCAA is corrupt and unfair and blew them off to go play in China while getting paid for his services. Hopefully more players will follow his lead instead of playing for free in the NCAA.

8:27: By taking Mudiay, Denver is saying, quite clearly, that it’s done with Ty Lawson, its star point guard. He’s been on the trading block for months, and is now almost certainly going to be traded before too long.

8:29: Stanley Johnson is taken by the Pistons eight overall. He should be a nice fit at small forward, playing on the wing next to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, shooting threes off passes from Brandon Jennings.

8:36: This is somewhat ominous for Charlotte. Last year they also had the ninth pick and the player they drafted, Noah Vonleh, has already been traded away.

8:37: The Hornets take…

8:37: FRANK THE TANK!!!!

8:41: I actually really don’t like this pick for Charlotte. They’ve already got Al Jefferson at center, who, while oft injured, is still a force on the offensive end. Kaminsky is going to be forced to play power forward, but that negates one of his biggest assets: his ability to shoot threes while being able to play center defensively. It’s a poor fit and this poor fit might submarine Kaminsky’s career

8:42: Rose makes the good point that the Hornets just traded for Spencer Hawes, another guy who can play center and shoot threes, while trading away Lance Stephenson, who’s an elite defender, to get him. Then, in the draft, they turn around and draft someone who can play center and shoot threes, in Frank Kaminsky, while passing on an elite defender, in Justise Winslow. Not a good sign as to the quality of Charlotte’s brain trust.

8:43: And the Heat take Winslow tenth.

8:44: It’s a good pick because, as I’ve repeated again and again, when you’re taking a guy like Winslow, it’s never a bad pick. It’s really that simple.

8:50: The Pacers select Myles Turner eleventh overall.

8:52: This pick is intriguing because it signals that Indiana is moving away from Roy Hibbert and the grinding defensive mentality that they’ve relied on for years.

8:53: Apparently, Turner can hit threes, another harbinger of offensive change for the Pacers.

8:57: The Jazz take Trey Lyles, the third Kentucky player picked today.

9:00: Here’s my problem with this pick: Utah has Rudy Gobert, an elite defensive player, who’s pretty much Tyson Chandler in his prime. Similarly to Dwight Howard’s teams in Orlando and in Houston this season, Chandler’s teams in New York and Dallas won when he was surrounded by three point shooters while he worked alone in the paint on both ends of the floor. Lyles can’t shoot threes, cramping up Utah’s spacing and preventing them from becoming the elite teams that Howard and Chandler’s teams were.

9:04: Phoenix takes Devin Booker, the fourth Kentucky player taken today, thirteenth overall.

9:05: It’s a good pick. Booker’s a shooter and can play off of Brandon Knight. Booker also fills Phoenix’s weakest spot, at shooting guard.
9:11: With the final pick of the lottery, the Thunder take Cameron Payne, out of Murray State. He’s a point guard, as is Russell Westbrook, so it’ll be interesting to see who the Thunder have play off the ball when they’re on the court together.

9:18: Here’s where the Nets would’ve picked if they weren’t totally incompetent. Instead, the sixty-win Hawks will add another asset to their deep team.

9:19: Atlanta takes Kelly Oubre. He’s a good defender and he plays small forward, so he’ll be able to replace DeMarre Carroll, who’s likely going to be leaving the Hawks in free agency.

9:26: Never mind, Oubre is headed to Washington, with Washington’s pick and two second rounders going back to Atlanta. He’ll be a good fit for Washington as well, phasing out the aging Paul Pierce, although Otto Porter Jr. broke out in the playoffs and I’m surprised the Wizards don’t want to explore what they have with 2013’s third overall pick.

9:27: Terry Rozier goes to the Celtics 16th overall. He’s an elite scorer but he’ll be in a dogfight for minutes at guard with a few other players.

9:33: Rashad Vaughn is taken by the Bucks. This is the first player I don’t know enough about to have a genuine opinion about him. He plays shooting guard, but Milwaukee already has Michael Carter-Williams, Jabari Parker, and the Greek Freak, and all three of those guys can play shooting guard. Perhaps Vaughn will come off the bench and act as depth for the team instead of being an important part of it.

9:39: Houston takes Sam Dekker with the 18th pick.

9:40: Dekker’s good, but I can’t claim to love this choice. In normal lineups, Trevor Ariza plays small forward and James Harden plays there when the Rockets go small. Still, Houston doesn’t have any holes in its starting lineup, so I guess it’s worth it for them to get a player who can be valuable off the bench.

9:46: Washington, picking for Atlanta, takes Jerian Grant. The Hawks already have Jeff Teague so I’m not sure why they need him. Maybe Atlanta will play more small ball, with Kyle Korver at small forward, Grant playing shooting guard, and Teague running the point.

9:48: Wait a second… Now, Grant is apparently going to the Knicks for Tim Hardaway Jr. I really like Grant and I’m ambivalent about Hardaway. I think this is ultimately a downgrade for Atlanta and a very nice trade for Phil Jackson and the Knicks..

9:53: Delon Wright, from Utah, is taken by the Raptors with the twentieth pick. He’s not going to start, not while Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are on the team, but he’s like Lou Williams in that he’ll be instant offense off the bench.

9:55: I’m extremely excited for the upcoming interview with Phil Jackson. While this last trade was rock solid, I’d like to hear an explanation for his choice of Porzingis.

9:58: Jackson just called Porzingis “Young Kristaps”. I think I know what I’ll be calling Young Kristaps for the rest of his life.

10:00: Jackson pretty much just said that since Young Kristaps is athletic and willing to work, he’ll be fine. I’m dubious, and besides, I’m not exactly happy about waiting the year that Jackson admitted it would take for Young Kristaps to develop.

10:00: The Mavs take Justin Anderson. He’s the guy whose absence proved to be the undoing of Virginia; once he got hurt, the Cavs lost in the second round to MSU. It’ll be interesting to see where he plays, though, because he’s a forward and Dallas’ two forward spots are already filled with Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki.

10:06: Chicago selects Bobby Portis. There’s no way he’ll ever see the light of day at power forward with Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, and Doug McDermott all ahead of him on the depth chart.

10:14: Rondae Hollis-Jeffersonn goes to Portland with the 23rd overall pick.

10:15: I like this selection for Portland. He’s not a good shooter but with Damian Lillard on his team, he won’t be asked to ever be a big part of the offense. Hollis-Jefferson’s specialty is defense and he’ll be a useful piece for the Trailblazers off the bench.

10:18: The Cavs are up next and the decision they have is fascinating. If they can choose a good shooting guard, such as RJ Hunter, then their only comparative weakness in their starting lineup will be shored up.

10:23: Cleveland takes…

10:23: TYUS STONES. Well, Tyus Jones, but he’s earned his nickname when he hit clutch shot after clutch shot in the NCAA championship game. Great pick for the Cavs. He’s small, but he can score, and he might be able to carry Cleveland’s offense in limited minutes off the bench, a unit that simply wilted in the playoffs when LeBron sat.

10:28: Never mind, Jones is headed to Minnesota for the 31st and 36th picks in the draft. Jones will act as bench depth on the Timberwolves. It’s a good trade for the Cavs as they’ll get dirt cheap players to act as depth while not tying up much cap space.

10:29: The Grizz take Jarell Martin from LSU. I’m confused. Memphis really needs a guard who can shoot threes, but Martin shoots threes rarely, and when he does, he usually misses, only hitting just over a quarter of his threes this past season. He’s another power forward but the Grizzlies don’t have a serious need for one with Zach Randolph safely the starter at that position.

10:33: The Spurs take Nikola Milutinov, the first player in this draft whose name I have never heard. Normally I would say that I’d never hear his name again, but this is San Antonio we’re talking about, so I assume Milutinov is about to be a Hall of Famer with a string of eighteen consecutive seasons of averaging 25-12 every night.

10:39: The Lakers take Larry Nance Jr. We’re officially on a streak of players who I’ve never heard of.

10:46: RJ Hunter goes to the Celtics at 28th overall. As a Nets fan I was hoping Hunter would last until the next pick. As a basketball aficionado, I was hoping that he’d drop to thirtieth where Golden State could add to their wealth of shooting talent. In Boston, just like Terry Rozier, he’ll scrap for minutes with all the other guards there.

10:48: Rose’s Team Needs for Brooklyn? Speed and athleticism. That seems accurate to me. The Nets are exceptional at everything except for running and jumping, but since those two traits aren’t needed at all while playing basketball, they’re looking very good for the future.

10:51: The Nets take Chris McCullough, a power forward from Syracuse. I’ve seen him mentioned as a sleeper in a couple of different places and I’m happy with that pick. He’s a useful player and he could become a starter on this sorry Nets team.

10:57: With the final pick of the first round, Kevon Looney is taken by the Warriors. He adds size and rebounding to the champions and will be valuable off the bench for them.

We’ve finished the first round, a round that will help define the league for years to come. Who will be the defining star from this draft? Towns? Okafor? Russell? Young Kristaps? No one yet knows, but whatever happens, it’ll be fun to watch.

Closer Report: Keeping New Roles

For many leagues, saves are the single rarest category and closers the single rarest commodity. Because of this, closers are often drafted quite high in the draft and are tough to pry away in trades, meaning that if you don’t have saves, it’s challenging to make up your deficit.

There are two ways to get an extra closer without overpaying for one. One option is to pick up guys who seem to be next in line for save opportunities if the current closer falters. The problem with this approach is that it ties up roster spots with players who aren’t yet valuable, and might never become assets to your team. The second possibility is to wait for someone else to hold onto these lottery tickets and to swoop in once the player appears to be securing the ninth-inning role, getting a closer on the cheap.

With that in mind, let’s examine five of the most volatile closing situations in the league to see if we can glean any insight into how we can nab a valuable asset on the cheap.

Beginning in the Windy City, Hector Rondon has been spectacular as the closer and hasn’t allowed an earned run in over a month, but despite this, Joe Maddon has given multiple save opportunities to each Pedro Strop and Jason Motte. Complicating matters is that a couple of weeks ago the Cubs signed Rafael Soriano, presumably to compete for saves. He’s in the minors until after the All-Star Break to get back into game shape, but this really is a mess. I’d bet on Rondon to keep his job, but to continue to share some saves with his teammates. If your league allows you to keep him off an active roster spot while he’s in the minors, it’s wise to pick up Soriano, just in case.

In Toronto, Brett Cecil has been receiving save opportunities but has been horrible while doing so. Roberto Osuna picked up the last save, converting a two-inning save against the Rays. Cecil has been so bad that Osuna seems likely to keep getting saves, but before trading too much to acquire him, remember that the Blue Jays are among the most likely teams to acquire a closer, so Osuna may not have this job for long.

For the Rockies, John Axford has been very good since Adam Ottavino went down, but he’s a ticking time bomb waiting to go off. He’s likely to keep his job for a couple of reasons. One, there are no elite relievers on his team to compete with him and two, since the Rockies aren’t contenders, they aren’t going to trade for a better closer. That’s a double-edged sword, though, because while Axford won’t lose his job, there aren’t going to be many save opportunities on basement-dwelling Colorado.

Moving on, the Diamondbacks have had instability at closer for a long time. Last year Addison Reed was meh, but they stuck with him. Arizona opened up this season with Reed as its closer, but Brad Ziegler took over, after a few days with Enrique Burgos in the role, once Reed started to fall apart. Burgos only recently came off the DL, but Ziegler has been solid enough that he’s not in any immediate danger of losing his job. There are no speculative adds in this bullpen but if Ziegler starts to stumble, Burgos should be next in line, especially after Reed’s demotion to the minors.

Lastly, let’s take a look at Seattle. Fernando Rodney opened up the year at closer but was absolutely atrocious. When he finally lost his job, his bloated ERA was over 7. Over the past couple of weeks, Carson Smith has been getting all save opportunities and has pitched effectively, as he has all year. Lloyd McClendon, Seattle’s manager, seems to be warming up to the idea of Smith as his long-term closer, and Smith has yet to give him any reason to pause. Rodney has been subpar since his demotion from closing and doesn’t seem close at all to reclaiming the role. Buy Smith with confidence, but if you miss out on him, don’t worry, because the next big thing for saves is just around the corner.

Changing Teams, Changing Values

We’re meandering slowly through June right now and the All-Star break is still a few weeks away, but there are already multiple teams that are out of contention. There’s generally not much of use on those rosters, but there can be a few salvageable pieces that might make or break a contender’s season.

Two clubs, in particular, have the power to dramatically shift the baseball landscape, both of MLB and of fantasy, the Cincinnati Reds and the Philadelphia Phillies. Each of those two teams has a star closer and an elite starter.

Trades will be good for these four players. Pitchers are extremely dependent on their surroundings for their fantasy value, especially closers; how can a starter win a game or a closer save it without their team winning the game? Let’s take a look at each of these four pitchers individually to see if we can ascertain whether or not their value will increase, and if so, by how much.

Starting off with Jonathan Papelbon, the Phillies’ closer, a prime example of a fantasy player who just needs a change of scenery. The Phillies have only won 23 games this season, fewest in the majors, and accordingly, Papelbon has a mere twelve saves, tied for 20th in the league. The 34 year-old veteran has continued to dominate, with a 10.52 K/9, along with a 1.05 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.

Similarly, Aroldis Chapman, closer for the Reds, has continued to be dominant with an insane K/9 of 15.73. Just like Papelbon, Chapman’s opportunities for saves have been painfully few, and he could benefit from a trade to a more competitive team.

One word of warning, though: these two pitchers may be traded to a team that employs them as elite relievers rather than as closers, which would hamper their value significantly. However, for the starting pitchers, that won’t be the case.

Cole Hamels, ace for Philadelphia, has been his customary brilliant self. He’s got his usual sub-3.00 ERA, with his usual low WHIP. He strikes out over a batter an inning, is 10-14 on quality starts, but only has five wins. With a change to a better team, the one weak spot in his fantasy profile will be solved, giving him a big increase in value.

Cincinnati’s ace, Johnny Cueto, faces the same problems as his counterpart on the Phillies, with impressive ratios without any wins. As with Hamels, if he’s traded to a better team, his worth will rise accordingly.

Before celebrating their impending trades, be aware that a trade isn’t without its drawbacks. As a reader astutely pointed out, if one of these pitchers switches to the American League, facing the designated hitter instead of a pitcher will worsen their ratios. Tread cautiously.

If you can convince someone that their value is inevitably headed upwards with no potential roadblocks, then sell. Otherwise, sit tight and enjoy.

Although Hamels has convinced reporters otherwise, these four players have yet to be traded, but for impatient owners, upset with their performance thus far, the day they’re dealt can’t come soon enough.