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World Cup Recap: First Games

With Russia-South Korea bringing an end to the first games for every team in the World Cup, I figured that it’d be a good thing to take a quick jaunt through the sixteen games played and to check up on my picks for each group (if you haven’t read about those yet, go read https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/the-world-cup-preview/. The rules for this pool are outlined near the top of that article so for you to understand this one fully, it might be a good idea to go to that article.). And, another advantage of writing something like this is that it allows people who haven’t been following the World Cup so far to get into it. With that, let’s get started!

Group A:

My Picks:

Brazil
Mexico
Croatia
Cameroon

Brazil 3-1 over Croatia

Mexico 1-0 over Cameroon

Outside of an own goal by Marcelo, Brazil thoroughly dominated their game against Croatia, winning 3-1, while Mexico could have beaten Cameroon 3-0 if not for a couple of bogus offsides calls by the refs, instead beating them 1-0.

My picks are in very good shape. Cameroon looks to be the worst team in the group while Brazil is clearly the class of the group. It seems as though I chose correctly when I took Mexico over Croatia, as Mexico looked a lot better than Croatia did.

My picks seem to be very good. Of course, it’s not gonna stay that way for long.

Group B:

My picks:

Spain
Chile
Netherlands
Australia

Netherlands 5-1 over Spain

Chile 3-1 over Australia

Chile took care of business against Australia, winning 3-1, while the Netherlands utterly destroyed Spain, 5-1, in part due to the early frontrunner for goal of the tournament: Van Persie’s header.

My picks here… Not exactly so great. In a vacuum, I didn’t pick well. The Netherlands are likely going to win the group, with Chile in second, Spain in third, and Australia in fourth. That means I picked badly.

However, everyone picked Spain to be first. If Spain comes in third, then we all get zero points which doesn’t matter in a competition. However, everyone in the pool picked either Chile or the Netherlands to come in second. If the Netherlands comes in first and Chile comes in second, then I earn three points from getting Chile right, but the Netherlands completely wrong. If Chile wins the group and the Netherlands place second, then I get partial credit for each one, only netting me two points. In a nutshell, I’m a Netherlands fan from now until the end of the group stage.

Group C:

My picks:

Colombia
Ivory Coast
Greece
Japan

Colombia 3-0 over Greece

Ivory Coast 2-1 over Japan

Colombia easily beat Greece three-nil, while the Ivory Coast had a come from behind victory to defeat Japan 2-1.

My picks are doing quite well. Colombia showed that it’s easily the best team in this group while the Ivory Coast showed that it can defeat inferior teams but is inconsistent enough that a good team can beat them. The only part I’m not pleased with is the Greece in third, Japan in fourth picks. Japan showed that it isn’t a bad team and that it can play with some good teams, while Greece showed that they’re really bad after getting mashed by Colombia. Still, it’s not a huge problem as of now, because, assuming that Greece and Japan lose to both Colombia and Ivory Coast, their matchup will decide who gets third. Greece will probably need to either win or tie that game because their goal differential right now is -3, compared to Japan’s -1. At least I’m in good shape for now.

Group D:

My picks:

Uruguay
England
Italy
Costa Rica

Costa Rica 3-1 over Uruguay

Italy 2-1 over England

Costa Rica upset Uruguay, 3-1, although Uruguay didn’t have its’ best player, Luis Suarez, while Italy beat England 2-1 in an exciting and competitive game.

I’m not doing well at all with these picks. There’s a decent chance that I don’t get any points at all from this group. As Uruguay has a bad goal differential, it’s behind England in the standings. Its’ only hope for advancement is to run up the score on England in their next match while hoping that the game between Italy and Costa Rica isn’t a tie AND still having to win their game against Italy while hoping that the loser of Costa Rica-Italy either loses or ties, or tying against Italy while hoping that the loser of Costa Rica-Italy loses. Either way, I’m not in the best of shape. England needs the same scenario as played out above (with their opponents switched in for Uruguay’s, obviously) to advance as well. Italy and Costa Rica each need a win in their last two games in order to clinch their ticket to the knockout rounds, depending on the goal differential.

Group E:

My picks:

France
Ecuador
Switzerland
Honduras

France 3-0 over Honduras

Switzerland 2-1 over Ecuador

France easily dispatched Honduras after a red card forced Honduras to play with ten players, while Switzerland and Ecuador were even throughout their game until a late goal by Switzerland in extra time gave them the victory.

Well, I’m, at least, in pretty good shape in this group. France looks like they’ll be able to run away with the group and Honduras pretty clearly looks like the clear favorite for last place, leaving Ecuador and Switzerland fighting for the group’s second spot in the knockout rounds. Ecuador is at a severe disadvantage in that race after losing to Switzerland. For it to vault past Switzerland, it’ll need to run up the score against Honduras, while hoping France beats Switzerland. Then, assuming that they have a better goal differential than the Swiss, Ecuador just needs to match whatever Switzerland does (i.e. win-win, tie-tie, loss-loss) in order to advance. If they don’t have a better goal differential, they’ll need to have a win to a Swiss tie or loss or a tie to a Swiss loss. If Switzerland manages to tie, or even beat, the French, then Ecuador will have almost no chance at advancing, although if Switzerland beat France, Ecuador would play France in their last game, meaning that they would just have to beat France in order to advance alongside Switzerland.

Group F:
My picks:

Argentina
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Nigeria
Iran

Argentina 2-1 over Bosnia and Herzegovina

Nigeria 0-0 against Iran

Argentina escaped against Bosnia and Herzegovina, winning 2-1, a close scrape for a team that is widely believed to be in championship contention, while Nigeria and Iran combined for a 0-0 tie, the first tie of the tournament, in the thirteenth game. Who says soccer is boring?

Everything is in good shape here. Argentina should run away with the group, Bosnia and Herzegovina (wow, that’s annoying to type) should beat up on the bottom two teams, while Nigeria and Iran will duke it out for third place. For me, all I need is for the top two teams to beat up on Nigeria a little less than Iran so Nigeria will have third place over Iran on the tiebreaker of goal differential.

Group G:

My picks:

Germany
America
Portugal
Ghana

Germany 4-0 over Portugal

America 2-1 over Ghana

Germany walked all over Portugal, winning 4-0, especially after Pepe received a red card, making the Portugese play with ten men. Thomas Müeller got a hat trick for Germany. America beat Ghana 2-1, in an exciting game in which Ghana dominated the flow of play for most of the game. America scored thirty seconds in before a stalemate for more than 80 minutes. Ghana scored to tie it up, but a couple of minutes later, the United States scored to take the lead 2-1 and to eventually win the game.

I’m in great shape in this group. Germany, especially with its’ huge goal differential after its’ 4-0 victory, is a huge favorite to capture the number one spot. America is likely to capture second place after their win and because Pepe’s red card which will keep him out of Portugal’s next game, against the Americans, making the United States more likely to win that game too. Portugal has a horrible goal differential and it’s at a severe disadvantage against the United States (because of Pepe’s absence) so it’ll need to beat Ghana in their third game to capture third place. Luckily for me, that’s a probable outcome as Portugal is a better team than Ghana.

Group H:

My picks:

Belgium
Russia
South Korea
Algeria

Belgium 2-1 over Algeria

Russia 1-1 against South Korea

Belgium dealt with Algeria, 2-1, while Russia let in an embarrassing goal to give South Korea a tie, 1-1.

My picks here are also doing quite well. Belgium has the lead by two points and are likely to take first place. Algeria has zero points and are at a disadvantage against South Korea in the race for third place because of South Korea’s tie with Russia. The gap between Russia and South Korea is smaller than it seemed before the tournament, but there’s still enough of a gap for it to be likely for Russia to take Group H’s second berth in the knockout rounds.

By the way, sorry for this being posted so late. I had finals and all the rest. Now that school’s over, hopefully I’ll have more time to write. Speaking of which, the next article out should be recapping the second game for each team. After that, there’s the NBA draft which I plan on writing a draft diary for. Then there’ll be an article recapping the third game for each team, then one previewing the knockout rounds, and then… who knows?

Anyways, there should be a bunch of great games on over the next few weeks and we’ll all be watching, alongside of the rest of the world.

The First Mailbag

1 Reply

An article that I’ve always wanted to write is a mailbag, in which readers send in questions, comments, or insults, and in my column, I answer them. Of course, I wasn’t able to do that *cue dramatic music* UNTIL NOW!

I got a couple of questions from readers in the past few days, so I’ll answer them now. Here’s the first one:

So Mr Shshi, why don’t you comment on the possibility that teams that have runs of bad seasons have to reduce their ticket prices, at least for the cheapest tickets. Especially if the teams are getting public $$ as tax breaks. Thank you.

This is a good idea, albeit one that needs some alterations and one that has been advocated for before. Runs of bad seasons are OK. Taking a dump on your fans isn’t. The former is normal in the course of rebuilding. The latter is taking it too far.

Let’s tweak the idea a little bit to talk about just an individual season. A season is more than long enough to torture the fans. It shouldn’t be years before the league steps in to prevent a team from tormenting its fans.

Let’s swing through the four major leagues to see if this plan is reasonable and viable.

NFL- There are enough things that can go wrong in a season that, even when you’re trying to field a competitive team, you can get screwed by a big injury (think Peyton Manning with the Colts in 2011 when they went 2-14 or RGIII this past year when Washington went 3-13) or by your quarterback suddenly forgetting how to play football (think Matt Schaub with the Texans last year when they went 2-14). As this isn’t a team being purposefully bad, it’s them getting incredibly unlucky. It’s impossible to penalize a team for something outside of their control, so the idea won’t work with the NFL.

NHL- I don’t know as much about the NHL as the other three sports, but there’s a big problem with determining how bad a season is: the shootout point. How can you determine exactly how badly a team screwed over their team when they can earn points for losing?

MLB- MLB is a little more realistic for the idea offered up by the reader. The Astros have willfully destroyed their team over the last few seasons, opting instead to reload through the draft. While it hasn’t been pretty, they’re in good shape for 2015 and beyond with a number of good players on the way. However, in the process, the made their fans pay for horrible team after horrible team. That’s what the reader suggested teams have to pay for. However, other than them, only the Marlins (with the whole stadium and trading away star players fiasco) and Mets (says the depressed Mets fan) have really tormented their fans in the past few years, so there aren’t enough teams to make it a worthwhile proposition in MLB.

NBA- However, in the NBA, there are more than enough teams to make it a good rule change. By my count, seven teams willfully lost games at some point last year (Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Utah, Boston, Los Angeles, Orlando), one team was planning on losing games but when they won them instead, ended up deciding to go for it (Phoenix), and one team tried to win games but messed up to hilarious degrees (Milwaukee). That’s a lot of teams. Should the Sixers be charging full price for their tickets this year after a 26 game losing streak caused by ravaging their team? I can’t understand how that could possibly be okay to rip off your fans like that.

The problem is that sometimes, stuff happens (and it’s not stuff, but I try to keep it PG around here) and makes you lose games. Milwaukee did its best to win this year but still ended up losing the most games in the league. Should it be penalized for sucking but doing its’ best not to screw over its’ fans? I don’t know, but that’s why, to institute a plan like this, the NBA would need to make a “Don’t Screw Over Your Fans” Committee to decide whether or not a team deserves to be punished. The NBA has committees for almost everything else, so why not this too? Keeping fans interested and committed to their team seems like a worthy goal, and the only way to do that is to take money out of the owners’ pockets by making their ticket prices for the next year after their offense was committed lower. So, yes, dear reader, I think that that’s a great idea and one that the NBA should certainly consider implementing.

The second question I received in the past couple days was from someone who would prefer to remain anonymous, but who has asked me multiple times to write an article about fantasy baseball. I hope this’ll suffice. Here’s what he said:

What techniques can I use to get a leg up on the competition in my fantasy baseball league?

Now, this is a good question. I’m currently in one fantasy baseball league and I use two methods for improving my team, one common, and one rare: streaming and stacking.

Streaming is often used but I’ll explain it here anyways just so we’re all on the same page. Streaming when one picks up a player (generally a pitcher) for a specific matchup, before dropping them the next day, in order to add another pitcher for another matchup. This allows one to accrue certain stats such as innings pitched, wins, and strikeouts, in order to more easily win your matchup.

The way I generally use streaming is by choosing one pitcher, every day, that I like. I then drop my worst pitcher (or a hitter if I have an extra one) and pick up the new pitcher. Still, I have an imaginary line that I use to help me decide who’s able to be dropped and who I should keep under all circumstances. As an example, you wouldn’t drop Clayton Kershaw to pick up Charlie Morton, would you?

When you have too many good pitchers, it becomes impossible to stream, which is why, in my league, I’ve been trying to trade away good pitchers to create an extra roster spot or two for streaming.

While streaming is almost always used for pitching, stacking is exclusively for hitting.

Stacking is when you have a bunch of hitters from the same team on your team. On my team, I’ve been stacking the Athletics. I have John Jaso, Derek Norris, Brandon Moss, and Josh Donaldson, and I’ve been trying to trade for Coco Crisp and Yoenis Cespedes.

Why is stacking a good thing to use? Well, let’s say that John Jaso scores a run. Who’s likely to have knocked him in? One of Moss, Donaldson, or Norris! See, the idea behind stacking (which is an idea I came up with by myself) is that it magnifies each individual positive occurrence that happens to a team.

So far, it’s worked very well for me, and hopefully work for you too. The only pitfall is stacking a team like the Mets who are incapable of scoring more than three runs more than once a week. Aside from that, it’s great! Now I’ll be back in a few minutes. I just need to go mourn the Mets of my childhood. *sniffles*

Back! Anyways, so I have a lot more rules and techniques that I utilize to win at fantasy baseball, but a master has to keep his best secrets. Also, most of the people in the league with me are probably reading this, and I kinda want to make sure that I keep in advantage over them so I can win.

If you want to be in the next mailbag, email me at sushi.krox@gmail.com with a question. Make the subject line “SushiOnSports Question” and provide me with a name (or anonymous) and I may answer your question in the next mailbag. Hope you enjoyed!

Looking Backwards and Forwards with the Finals

The World Cup Preview

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Well, the biggest sporting event in the world is finally here after a long, four year wait. In my opinion, the World Cup is much like the Olympics, with the four year cycle, way too expensive stadiums, and worldwide attention, except that people actually want to watch the World Cup. I thought I’d write a short (warning: it’s really, really, really long) preview of the Cup, starting off with talking about the pool I started and created for the group stages of the tournament before getting to my picks for the aforementioned pool (you can post your picks in the comment section too!). Then we’ll talk about my picks for part of the knockout rounds and a few other things as well. Sound good? I can only assume you’re saying yes, as you’re reading this article and I can’t hear you through your computer screen, no matter how loudly you scream.

So here’s how the pool works. It’s quite simple:

For the group stages: Pick the order of the teams’ finish. For example in Group G, you might choose

1. Germany

2. Portugal

3. America

4. Ghana

For each pick exactly right, three points are earned, and for each pick that’s missed by one point, one point is earned. Outside of that, no points can be earned.

So that’s the pool. My picks later on in the article reflect the parameters put in place.

Now, when I make picks for a pool, I’m serious about doing so. I research, I use online tools, and I watch games. For the picks below, the ones I’m using for my pool, you’ll find my an explanation combining both my reasoning and a very useful online tool from FiveThirtyEight.

For March Madness, FiveThirtyEight made an online, interactive bracket using data and fancy stats, to create winning probabilities for every team in every game.

They used the same principles for the World Cup. Here’s the link to their interactive forecasting model: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/. For most teams, I agreed with their assessments. For teams that I didn’t know so much about, I followed their opinion. In a couple of rare cases, I went with my gut, against their predictions, including once that was caused by patriotism. ‘Murica!

Group A:

Brazil
Mexico
Croatia
Cameroon

Brazil is going to advance with ease. They’re at home and lucked into one of the easiest groups. They’re from South America, (which is important to me, as we’ll get to later) home field advantage matters a lot in the World Cup, and they have a very good team. In fact they’re good enough to be in the Elite Four (you’ll see that mentioned a few times throughout the article and I’ll explain later on, closer to the end of it). I suspect that the pressure of a riotous, soccer-crazed nation will get to them, but with this creampuff of a group, I doubt it will affect them in the group stage.

Mexico and Croatia are essentially a tossup for the second spot according to FiveThirtyEight. I picked Mexico as, outside of the recent stretch in which they were so bad that they barely made it into the World Cup, have been very good for years. Also, I suppose, if Mexico advances, then Americans can say “Well, we beat Mexico, so if we weren’t in the Group of Death, (which they really aren’t, as we’ll get to later) then we would have advanced too!” What can I say? I’m just a patriotic American.

Cameroon is clearly a cut below the rest of the group, although, as the gap between them and the Croatia-Mexico level isn’t a chasm, so if a couple of goals and 50-50 calls go their way, they can certainly advance as well.

And yes, I am aware that the Croatia and Brazil have played (Brazil beat Croatia 3-1) but I wrote this long before the game started, so my predictions are untainted by any future knowledge.

Group B:

Spain
Chile
Netherlands
Australia

This is the real Group of Death. Spain is the defending World Cup champions from when they won in 2010. That win is sandwiched between two victories in. the Euro Cup in 2008 and 2012. While their core is getting older, they still have enough left in the tank to remain in the Elite Four and to take this group with relative ease.

Chile is a very good team. In 2010, they were in Spain’s group and advanced to the quarterfinals where they were summarily dismissed by Brazil, 3-0. I’ve always been rather bullish on South American teams, AND in this World Cup, they’re playing close to home, giving them an advantage (although I’m not sure how big that advantage is). FiveThirtyEight’s model also sees them as a lot better than the Netherlands, and even gives them a decent shot to upset Spain to win the group.

The Netherlands were the runner-up in the 2010 World Cup, losing to Spain, 1-0. They’re also getting old, but they haven’t handled it quite as well as Spain has. Robin van Persie is still a beast, although he’s been hindered by injuries as this past year as he scored just twelve goals in 21 games, playing for Manchester United in the Premier League. Between van Persie’s injuries, the growing age of the team, and the tough group, it’s hard to believe in the Netherlands. Of the top three teams in this group, one has to be the odd one out, and I’m betting that it’s going to be the Netherlands.

Australia. Poor Australia. Not a very good team to begin with, they get stuck with three other title contenders? Kinda sucks for them. I’d wouldn’t be surprised if they failed to notch any goals, let alone any points. Well, the consolation for Australia is that at least they’re there at the World Cup. For them, it’s triumph just to have made it. Anything else they accomplish is just gravy.

Group C:

Colombia
Ivory Coast
Greece
Japan

This group one of the most balanced groups, although Colombia is clearly the class of it. It would be a major upset if they failed to make it out of the group stage.

The intrigue comes with the next three teams, the Ivory Coast, Greece, and Japan. The Ivory Coast has historically disappointed in big tournaments, but I think that this year is going to be the year they finally advance, due mostly to their relatively easy draw.

Speaking of draws, it’s impossible to overstate the foolishness of FIFA in continuing with their antiquated method of determining groups. Their methods may seem fine on the surface, but what method would have such disparities between groups as the one between Group A and Group B? Let’s say that Brazil and Spain are equal (which they are normally, although since the World Cup is in Brazil, Brazil has a big home field advantage). Which one is more likely to make it to the knockout rounds: the team with two okay teams and a bad team (all relative to teams in the World Cup) or the team with one very good team, one good team, and one bad team? It’s no contest. It penalizes teams for nothing other than dumb luck! How is that in the spirit of competitive balance and exciting games?
On the flip side, you have the Ivory Coast, which is likely to advance out of the group stage merely because of the group it was handed by FIFA. Then, when they advance, we get to watch them get blown out of the water by the first place team of Group D (which is close to a tossup). Not exactly an exciting game. For the good, of all, FIFA should finally get rid of its’ useless method for determining groups.

A good article that really hashes this out and explains it in detail, along with offering solutions is at http://grantland.com/the-triangle/group-of-fairness-how-the-world-cup-would-look-with-straight-seeding/. Grantland overall is great—I really enjoy it—and it might be worth checking out.

Wow, that was a long tangent. Getting back to business, I don’t know much about Greece or Japan, but the projection model favors Greece by a decent sized margin so I’m going to roll with it.

Oh, and another tangent, this time about the roll part of the sentence: I was once playing pickup basketball with some friends and I set a pick. The other guy says “Sushi, roll!” leading to us having to pause the game so we could all laugh for a bit. It’s great having an awesome name like Sushi.

Anyways, I seem to be always going off topic in my old age, so before I can run off on another tangent, on to Group D!

Group D:

Uruguay
England
Italy
Costa Rica

This is also clearly a Group of Death. You’ve got Uruguay, a team that I’m very bullish on, England, a team that’s rebuilding but still has very good players, Italy, a team who is also pretty good, and Costa Rica, a team that hasn’t been too bad and which solidly beat America, 3-1, only a few months ago.

I picked Uruguay to win the group because, as you know, I like the South American teams. In addition, they’re playing close to home, and they have Luis Suarez. For those of you who don’t pay attention to the Premier League, Suarez scored 31 goals for Liverpool this season, a staggering amount. That’s more than enough for me to take Uruguay.

I have England and Italy in the same tier for this group, the fighting-for-second-place tier, and was leaning towards Italy (because, after all, England is rebuilding) but FiveThirtyEight’s model thought England was almost as good as Uruguay in terms of likelihood to advance and to win the group, so I chose England to advance alongside Uruguay.

Costa Rica, in my opinion, not a bad team in and of itself, got screwed over by the selection process, and, while they may have even advanced in an easier group, will likely find themselves in last place due to the luck of the draw.

Group E:

France
Ecuador
Switzerland
Honduras

While France’s individual players are very good, their results have been highly inconsistent on the national team level. In a weak group, I’m hoping that their talent outweighs their history and that they place first in their group and advance to the knockout rounds. The projection system agrees with me, pegging France’s odds of advancing at just over 80% and their odds of capturing the top spot at nearly 54%.

I chose Ecuador for four reasons: one, the model believes them to be better than Switzerland, two, they’re South American, three, they’re playing close to home, and finally four, because of their easy draw. That’s enough for me.

Switzerland is third. I don’t exactly have a reasoned opinion about it, I just don’t like their chances. I like their chocolate, I like their cheese, I just don’t like their soccer team. So sue me.

Honduras comes in last place. While I’ve already outlined why I chose Ecuador and France to advance, I figured that there was probably a reason that FIFA put Switzerland in the top eight of the world (other than FIFA being based in Switzerland, bribes, or that FIFA isn’t exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer. That pun was unintentional, I didn’t mean to call attention to the fact that they’re bad at the World Cup drawing. Oh wait I just did! Wow, I’m really on a bad crappy joke run, I’d better stop now) so I ended up choosing them over Honduras.

Group F:

Argentina
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Nigeria
Iran

I picked Argentina to take the group for a bunch of reasons. I won’t rehash all of the reasons related to Argentina being located in South America, as you’ve probably memorized it by now and I’d bet that you’re a little sick of it. In addition to those aforementioned reasons, Argentina is in the Elite Four and they have Lionel Messi. I like Messi because he’s a beast, has beautiful passes, (while also scoring plenty of goals) and because, as he’s only 5’’4, he brings hope to smallish people like me.

Departing from the usual order of teams, I’ll talk about the second-place pick last. Why? I’m simply a daredevil, living life on the wild side.

Iran is a tough team to predict. They haven’t played much against international competition so it’s challenging to determine exactly how good they are. Still, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Iran isn’t a good team, and place them firmly in last place.

Nigeria also isn’t a great team. I’m bearish on African teams, partly because they’ve historically not done well in the World Cup, partly because of their lack of competition against elite teams. However, when in doubt, as always, let’s go check out the projection system. The model gives them a 68% chance of failing to advance and sees them to be worse than Bosnia and Herzegovina, so I’m going to trust the math and put Nigeria third.

Finally, we’ve got Bosnia and Herzegovina. They’re a solid team, by all accounts, and as there are two teams clearly a cut below them, they fall into the second spot, almost by default.

Group G:

Germany
America
Portugal
Ghana

Germany, the last member of the Elite Four, (yes, we’ll get to what that is soon) and is a very, very good team. It has exceptional players such as Mesut Özil, Thomas Müller, and Phillip Lahm, their captain. There’s no South American team to upset them. They’re clearly a cut above the rest of they’re group and it’d be extremely surprising if someone other than them took first place in the group.

“Why in the world would you pick America?” you might ask. My answer might be that I’m a red blooded American, who likes guns, gets fat, and expects the government to pay for my problems. Whenever my Yanks take part in a competition, my patriotic pride swells up, and I have to believe in them.

Well, to be honest, none of that is actually true. The real reason why I’m picking America is because of their schedule. America plays Ghana first, and is likely to beat them according to FiveThirtyEight. If they can tie or beat Portugal in their second game, something the projection system gives a 58% chance of happening, then they’ll be in good shape heading into their third match, with Germany.

See, America can’t play with Germany—they’ll just be overwhelmed. America’s only chance is to hope that Germany beats Ghana and Portugal and rests most of their starters and plays its second team instead. If that happens, America would have a decent shot at winning or tying (although, even against Germany’s second team, there’s still a decent chance they might lose), which would push them ahead of Portugal and into the second spot. Of course, this might not play out the way I hope it will, but at the very least I can dream a little, for at least a few days.

Portugal is next. They’re a good team, but a more accurate team name might be “Cristiano Ronaldo and ten other guys”. Ronaldo is an amazing player so I couldn’t put his team any lower than third in this group, but if an opposing team can shut Ronaldo down, Portugal will be in deep trouble.

Ghana, as we all know, has eliminated America in the last two World Cups. Still, I think this’ll be the year that we finally get rid of Ghana for a couple of reasons: one, America has gotten better over the past four years while Ghana has stagnated, and two, Ghana’s in Africa which, as we talked about earlier in the Nigeria section, is generally a no-go for me. In a group with three superior teams, Ghana seems destined to finish last.

Group H:

Belgium
Russia
South Korea
Algeria

Belgium has a few good players, including Thibaut Cortois, the keeper who led Atletico Madrid to a second place finish in the Champions League, Eden Hazard, and Romelu Lukaku. In a weak group, their good players should push them to a first place finish in their group.

The projection model sees Russia as the likely second place finisher, although they have a decent shot to vault past Belgium and into firs placet.

Of the two other teams, South Korea and Algeria, South Korea has about a 40% chance of pulling an upset and advancing to the knockout rounds, while Algeria has about a 20% chance of doing so, deciding the last two spots in this group.

Wow, that was certainly a long-winded explanation and analysis. Now, we’ll move onto a couple of storylines to watch throughout the World Cup.

The Top Heavy Tournament:

Throughout the article, you may have noticed that I’ve referred a few times to the “Elite Four”. You may have wondered what that referred to. Well, now, you’re about to find out! *cue game show music and people happily screaming* When deciding on predictions for tournaments, drafts, and everything else, it’s useful to separate teams and players into different tiers to make it easier to choose between them. In this World Cup, the highest tier consists of Brazil, Germany, Spain, and Argentina. The next tier is just Uruguay, and there are a number of teams in the third tier. Still, as you can see, this years’ tournament is very top heavy. There’s a chasm between the Elite Four and the third tier. Because there’s very little parity, this tournament will not be conducive to Cinderella runs by any third or fourth tier teams. It’s too bad for fans of specific teams, but it’s incredible for fans of soccer. Why? The Elite Four are very likely to meet in the semifinals, meaning that those matches should be competitive and the best soccer in the world. It should be great.

The Many Groups of Death:

It’s annoying how often the term “Group of Death” is used, but even worse are the confusing qualifications to be one. Can there be multiple Groups of Death? Is it just the hardest group? The best team in the group or the teams in the group’s average level? There are so many befuddling and vague requirements to be a Group of Death to make sense of. If you think you have an answer to any of the questions, let us all know in the comments section.

America and Saving Face in the Group of Death:

Speaking of Groups of Death, Group G has been hyped up by the American media to be considered one of said Groups of Death. The question, of course, is why. While America seems to have a harder group than most, it certainly isn’t as hard as Group B (which is why we need clear rules for being a Group of Death like I outlined in the last paragraph). I think that the reason why the American media has decided that America is in the Group of Death is to lower expectations for the team.

To explain, here’s an example of that in every day life. Sometimes, a job of mine at home is to unload the dishwasher. Let’s say I dutifully unload the dishwasher every time that it needs to be done for a month. If I continued doing it, no one would notice it or thank me for it because it’s become expected of me.

Now let’s say that I rarely unloaded the dishwasher. If I unload the dishwasher, since the expectations for me were so low, I’d be praised and what I had done would be appreciated more.

Now apply that to what the media has been doing. They’re setting America up so that if they fail, it’s okay because it’s because they were stuck with in a Group of Death, and if they advance, they’ve exceeded expectations and are worthy of much praise. That’s a lot better than the situation that Brazil has been stuck with.

Pressure on Brazil:

Speaking of Brazil, they have a couple of inherent advantages in this World Cup, outside of the variables that are able to control. One, they have an easy group, as we discussed a while ago. Two, they’re playing at home, which has historically been a boon for whoever gets to host the tournament. Still, I suspect that home field advantage might prove to be a curse in this year’s World Cup.

Think of the political situation in Brazil: people are rioting in the streets, upset that their government is spending money on a tournament when that money could be used to help get better schools, better housing, and more food. Think of the social situation in Brazil: a soccer-crazed nation is hosting the World Cup and which has a team that’s considered the favorite to win. That’s a lot of pressure on a team. The pressure won’t matter in Group A when they’re playing against inferior competition. The pressure will grow steadily until they finally face a team their equal. If they fall behind against a team as good as them, I suspect that the pressure will get to them and they will lose. That’s why I don’t have them winning the World Cup, although we’ll get to that in greater detail once we reach the knockout rounds.

I’m saving my picks for the knockout rounds until we actually know who’s participating, although I’ll be sure to let you know my picks once the bracket is locked. Right now, my final four teams are Germany, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay (upsetting Spain in the quarterfinals) with the pressure finally getting to Brazil in the semifinals and Uruguay pulling of another big upset of an Elite Four team, this time Argentina, resulting in a Germany-Uruguay Finals, which I pick Germany to win.

I’m looking to possibly do a pool for the knockout rounds, so if you’re interested, send me an email at sushi.krox@gmail.com or just post in the comments section. If enough people answer, we can have a SushiOnSports pool, which I’ll be sure to write about.

Quick alert about the NBA Finals: the Spurs’ offense has been incredible, and after blowing out Miami last night, 107-86, they look like a lock to win the championship. I’m saving my extended thoughts for another time, probably in a new article after the series is over.

Anyways, enjoy the World Cup action! It should be great!

Derek Fisher and the Knicks

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I thought it’d be worthwhile to talk for a bit about Derek Fisher’s hiring by Phil Jackson to become the next coach of the Knicks.

There seems to be a bit of a trend in hiring coaches, in that ex-players are going to be good coaches.

Don’t believe me? Derek Fisher played for the Thunder this past season before retiring to coach the Knicks. Same for Jason Kidd last year. He played for the Knicks in 2012-2013 before retiring to become the head coach of the Nets this past year. Steve Kerr, the new Golden State coach, isn’t moving into coaching directly after retiring (he retired in 2003 and has since worked as the GM of the Suns and as a TV analyst) but he is an ex-player. He played for 15 years and won five rings as a part of the second Bulls three-peat and the first two Duncan-era Spurs titles. Clearly, there’s now something inherently good about ex-player coaches.

The question is, of course, what the advantage is. As Jackson very well knows, coaching isn’t all about strategy; in fact, strategy might not be the most important part.

During Jackson’s long years as a coach, first with the MJ Bulls, then with the Shaqobe Lakers, then with the Kobe Lakers, he acted more as a peacemaker and a psychologist than as a master tactician. He understands the need for someone who understands the locker room dynamic and can act accordingly to make sure everyone is happy and performs to the best of their abilities. Who better to know what happens in a locker room than a former player?

Also, ex-players know tactics just as well as, if not better than, non-ex-players. While the latter may know more about advanced stats than the former, the former knows what makes basketball sense, not to mention what the players are actually capable of doing.

With all of these advantages to having a ex-player as a coach, why are there no player-coaches in the NBA anymore? While the NBA prohibits someone from being paid as a player and paid as a coach, an assistant coach could be given the title of assistant coach while the player actually coached. Why would this not work? The player is in the locker room and knows what’s happening, They know what the team needs, be it rest, motivation, or just to be left alone. Especially as players are already the emotional leaders, (like Kevin Garnett on the Celtics) why not make them the leaders in name as well?

On most teams, especially on those without an elite coach, the best player, the superstar of the team, rules alongside the coach. If the relationship between that player and the coach sours, that team can kiss good-bye to any success and wave hello to a dysfunctional year. Erasing that risk from the equation can certainly be beneficial.

In fact, there’s something already like that in basketball today. Doc Rivers is the coach and GM of the Clippers. Doc the GM made a couple of bad moves over the summer, for instance signing JJ Redick, which didn’t work out. Doc the coach wouldn’t have been very happy about those moves but, of course, he couldn’t exactly feud with himself. A potential power struggle was averted because one person already had all the power. While in governments that may not work too well, on an NBA team, it seems to work pretty well.

Derek Fisher and Phil Jackson should work pretty well together, mostly because they already have. Fisher and Jackson won five rings together in Los Angeles, in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, and 2010, in two separate stints for each of them. Although they (obviously) aren’t the same person, they still have much of the same experiences and philosophies, making it more likely that Fisher will, rather than be his own coach, act as an extension of Jackson, making sure that there’s no tension

With Jackson and his philosophies coaching the Knicks through Fisher, the Knicks seem to be in good shape. The biggest problem is that tension might arise because their coach is better than their starting point guard. Other than that, I like their hiring a lot.

In NBA Finals news, Duncan continued his throwback with another monster double-double of 18-15, and LeBron had an F-You game and scored 35 along with 10 rebounds. So much for cramps.

The question, of course, is what the idiots who blindly hate LeBron are saying. Here’s my best guess:

“Why didn’t LeBron score 50 points and grab 20 rebounds along with garnering 10 assists. What a slacker! And all his team did was win the game. He should have won these Finals, along with the next four this game. LeBron really sucks.”

On that comedic note, here’s to another great game tonight!

What These Finals Really Mean

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So I was going to write a Finals preview column, but fate, school, and Finals (and no, not the good basketball kind, the horrendous school variety. Ugh) intervened, and I didn’t have a chance to write it. This is my replacement column.

Now, for the record, my Finals prediction before the beginning of the series was Heat in 6. Here’s why I have them winning in 6:

The reason why I have the series ending in 6 is that the Heat don’t have home-court-advantage so they’ll have to win a game on the road. The odds are that the Heat, should they manage to win a game on the road against San Antonio, it’ll be in one of the first three, rather than the last one.

The reasons why I have the Heat winning the series are as follows:

LeBron James.
LeBron James.
LeBron James.
Have I mentioned LeBron James yet? I’m not sure. Just for my peace of mind:
LeBron James.

Honestly, that’s the only reason to take the Heat. They’re don’t have home court, the Spurs are far deeper, the Heat are older. The Heat are not as good as last year while the Spurs are far better, and, if you’ll recall, the Heat only barely managed to win. The Heat can’t count on a Ray Allen 3 to bail them out again, nor do they have home-court so they can play a potential elimination game at home.

Still, all is not lost for the Heat. As you may have seen above, they still have LeBron James. Historically, the best player in the series almost always will win that series, unless the talent disparity is too much. As the Spurs are slightly better, while the Heat have LeBron, it’s close to a toss-up, but for me, when in doubt, I always go with the best player in the league. Still it should be a close matchup.

Of course, when the best player in the league isn’t on the floor, it doesn’t matter much if you have him. On Thursday night, LeBron sat for most of the fourth quarter as an 86-79 lead with nine minutes left deteriorated once he sat, culminating in a 110-95 San Antonio victory. He even came back in with about four minutes left, behind by two, made a shot, then limped off the court, never to return to the game.

This was caused by the arena’s air conditioning malfunctioning so the players were playing in 90 degree weather, lending new meaning to the chant “Beat the Heat”.

LeBron has had trouble with cramps in past playoff games; maybe he should try and fix his problem and attempt to find a solution, rather than hoping that it doesn’t show up in a big Finals game. Unlike most idiots on social media, all burying LeBron for “deserting his team”. All complete bullcrap.

LeBron is in horrible company in having to come out of a Finals game because of cramps. Michael Jordan would never do something like that because… Wait a second… My editors (I don’t have an editor, I’m my own editor, but I wanted to say that because one, it sounds cool, and two, it makes it sound better) are telling me something… Oh! MJ also came out of a Finals game because he had cramps? Yeah, but still. My point from before is still relevant because, you know, only the best player ever did it.

You know maybe they’re actually onto something here: someone who led his team in all relevant statistical categories (i.e. points, rebounds, assists, etc.) while carrying the team on his back the whole year and who led his team during that game in points, was tied for second in assists, and was second in rebounds, despite playing merely 33 minutes because his whole left side started seizing up, isn’t a good teammate because when the whole left half of his body is immobile, obviously, he should be out there, limping along, playing like garbage (wow that was a really long sentence). But it doesn’t matter if he did that because, of course, if he did, the Twitter-verse would tell him that he should have taken himself out so that he wouldn’t harm the team by playing badly. It’s a lose-lose situation for LeBron.

In fact, it’s commendable that LeBron took himself out. He could have tried to be the hero and sucked. Rather, he recognized his limits and decided that a lesser, but healthier teammate would be better than a hobbled version of him. Again, how is that a bad thing?

Anyways, so after Game 1, my pick isn’t changing. It’s still Heat in 6. I expected that the Heat would lose twice in the first three games in San Antonio, so this loss isn’t devastating for my pick. Of course, I really, really want to change my pick to San Antonio in 7 but that would lose me whatever respect you had for me in the first place, so I’ll have to refrain.

So, after a preamble of over 900 words, onto the actual article! This article is, I suppose, a Finals preview, but it’s not in the usual format and it’s not about the usual stuff, so I’m not counting it. This column is about what this Finals means to everyone important who’s involved in it and how it affects the legacies of those people.

LeBron James:

All that’s at stake for LeBron James is his third title, a three-peat, the inside track to the title of most dominant team of the decade, a few spots up the all-time list, and much more. Only MJ (twice), Bill Russell (multiple times), and Shaqobe (once) have ever managed to get a three-peat. That’s the best player ever, a top-five player, and the best pairing ever, between two top-twenty players. Not too shabby a list.

In addition, although he’s already accomplished this, it’s worth mentioning here, the four-peat of getting to the Finals. The last team to get to the Finals four straight years was the 1984-87 Celtics. Before that, it was the 50s and 60s Celtics. That’s another prestigious list.

Also, should he win this title, LeBron will move up the list, definitely to the top 10, or possibly even higher. My rankings of all-time players is MJ, Kareem, Russell, Magic, Bird, Duncan (although he’ll move up a couple of spots if he wins the title, although we’ll get to him later), Kobe, and then some order of Oscar, The Logo, and Wilt. Does LeBron move past those three to get to the Kobe-Duncan tier if he wins the title? I think so, especially as Wilt, West, and Oscar only won a combined four titles.

Another important thing that I’d like to talk about, something that I’ve talked about briefly in the past, is how winning this championship will affect LeBron’s potential free agency. No important player on, let alone the undisputed leader of a championship winning team, has ever walked away after winning it all. Ever. From that we can assume that he won’t leave Miami if they win this series, especially as they’ll have a chance for a four-peat, something that only Russell ever did (and he did it in a much weaker era). The question is whether or not LeBron will win more titles if he stays in Miami or if he goes to, let’s say, the Clippers. If he stays in Miami then he has a potential four-peat, but after that, with Wade’s deal clogging up the cap, he’ll have to carry the team by himself every night. Alternatively, if he loses, he can go to the Clippers and have a great supporting cast, not have to play his best game every night, live in Los Angeles, and win five straight titles as a superstar, if not more, before becoming a supporting player and winning a few more after that.

If he wins this year, I hope, rather than resigning a long contract with Miami that he just accepts his player option for next year, before going into free agency in 2015. If he wins the title with Miami next year too… Well, I suppose we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

The main risk for LeBron is that he becomes a historical nomad, like Roger Clemens. Clemens is a superstar, but Boston hates him, Toronto has no love for him, New York regarded him as a mercenary, and he only spent three years in Houston. If LeBron leaves Miami, then that’s the risk he runs. Is it worth it to sacrifice fan loyalty for more rings? Who knows, but it’s an important conundrum for LeBron, and one that he’ll have to figure out.

With the three-peat, all-time list, and everything else that we talked about, there’s certainly a lot at stake for King James these Finals.

Tim Duncan:

Tim Duncan probably has the most at stake other than LeBron. He and Kobe are locked in a duel for the title of the most successful post-Jordan superstar (I’ll talk more about Kobe later, but first, Duncan). He won four titles, he’s won more than 50 games every year of his career (except for the shortened season in 1999 in which he went 37-13, although that’s a 61 win pace), and he’s done it all without once bottoming out and getting a good draft pick, he’s consistent, he knows where to pick his spots (as in, he knows when he needs to score 20 and get 15 rebounds for his team to win), he’s loyal, and he’s lasted for more than 15 years, all of them above average.

In my opinion, a fifth title pushes him past Larry Bird and probably Magic as well (as Magic had a far better supporting cast and didn’t truly become the alpha dog of the team until 1986 or 1987), to become the fourth best player ever. A fifth ring also pushes him into a tie with Kobe for the third most rings ever from an alpha dog, behind Kareem and MJ (with six) and Russell (with eleven). The alpha dog distinction is important as a number of supporting players lucked into rings by playing alongside great players, like Robert Horry (with seven rings), Dennis Rodman (with five rings), and any player from the 50s and 60s Celtics.

Another interesting subplot with Duncan is that it seems as though he’ll retire if he wins. While it’ll be sad to see him go, after years as an elite player, leaving at the pinnacle of his profession is a pretty nice way to go. I like that Duncan will leave after this year if he wins because it shows how smart of a player he is: he won’t demean himself by holding on too long, like, for instance, MJ with the Wizards.

Another storyline to watch is how last years brutal Finals loss affected the Spurs. Most teams wouldn’t be able to come back from that but the Spurs just kept on rolling, destroying teams efficiently, as always. A historical parallel is the late eighties Pistons. The Pistons lost brutally in both 1987 and 1988. In 1987 they lost in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Celtics after Bird’s famous steal. The next year, in 1988, they made it to the Finals, against the Lakers, and were up in Game 6, about to close the Lakers out to win their first title, when Isiah sprained his ankle but still managed to notch a 25 point third quarter. Then, they lost in excrutiating fashion, losing by one point, 103-102, before losing the Game 7, 108-105. Still, after two seasons with bad breaks, they persevered and won the next two titles.

Yes, I suppose the comparison isn’t perfect; the Spurs have already won a title, but the message is the same: only truly great teams bounce back from those kinds of losses. Duncan, having done so, has already exorcised the demons of last year’s Finals, has already proven that he and his team are great. But to bounce back and avenge last year’s loss by winning another championship against the team that stole one away from him last year? That’s a damn good end to a damn good career.

Dwyane Wade:

Wade is content as no matter what happens, he’ll still have one more ring than LeBron, on the strength of his 2006 ring against Dallas. Still, another ring never hurts historically. The main thing that a ring would accomplish would be tying him with Duncan and pushing him to one ring behind Kobe. Still, that’s not as big of a deal as you might think for a couple of reasons.

One, competing with Kobe and Duncan doesn’t matter as much as competing with LeBron, Melo, and Bosh (and Darko) as they’re from a different period. Duncan and Kobe were drafted in 1997 and 1996, respectively, while the foursome (quick tangent, what’s the equivalent to trio for a group of four? Is it a foursome? Like, trio is to a group of three as ________ is to a group of four. Any suggestions?) of LeBron, Melo, Bosh, and Wade were all drafted in 2003.

Second, in 2006, he carried the Heat to the title, so there’s no argument there. In 2011, he was a big part of the runner-up Miami team. In 2012, when the Heat won the title, he was still an important component of the team, although he was no longer the alpha dog as LeBron had finally decided to assert his dominance. While in 2013, in the second consecutive title winning season, he was a good supporting player, but by no means an elite and integral player, especially as he was playing hurt for much of the playoffs. This year, he sat out for chunks of the regular season, only playing 54 games. In the playoffs, he had something of a rejuvenation, although he didn’t come anywhere near to his previous heights.

The question, of course, is how much the titles count in the grand scheme of things. Yes, he won titles, but not as the best player. How valuable that is determined to be will ultimately decide his legacy.

Ray Allen:

Allen is already a first ballot Hall-of-Famer. He already owns the most clutch, important, and challenging shot in the history of the NBA. He’s already the best three point shooter of all time. He doesn’t need another title like some of the others on this list, but his accomplishments keep on piling on and he keeps on moving up the ranks. Another record he’ll likely have by the end of the Finals is most 3s in the Finals. He has 49 to Robert Horry’s 56. Of course, this is Allen’s 3^rd Finals while Horry had seven to accrue his total, making Allen’s total amount of 3s far more impressive.

Ray Allen will be remembered as one of the first great three point shooters (along with Larry Bird and Reggie Miller) and one of the clutchest (is that a word? If not, it is now) players ever, the owner of the clutchest shot ever,as well as the winner of two rings (and counting). There’s nothing more for him to prove, but winning another ring would be yet another accomplishment by a great player.

Gregg Popovich:

He’s already in the conversation, but another title would strengthen his case for the title of Best Coach Ever. He’s fighting with Red Auerbach and Phil Jackson. Auerbach famously coached with just seven plays while Jackson functioned as more of a peacemaker and harmonious Zen Master than as a coach, but neither of them had the same tactical aptitude as Popovich has. In fact, I personally think that Pop is already the best coach and here’s why:

The titles conversation is largely irrelevant. Auerbach won 16 titles throughout his career, but only nine as a coach, of the 50s and 60s Celtics. While, right now, it’s more than twice as many as Pop has, but they came in a weaker era with a quarter of the teams that there are today, meaning that Auerbach’s numbers are inflated. Additionally, Auerbach’s Celtics had a number of Hall of Famers while Popovich’s Spurs have had only David Robinson (only at the tail end of his prime and when he was washed up) who’s already a Hall of Famer. Obviously, Duncan is a shoo-in, but there’s no guarantee that Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili will end up making it in. Pop’s degree of difficulty is and was much greater than Auerbach’s ever was.

The same goes for Phil Jackson for his first six titles with the MJ-Pippen Bulls. The league was over-expanded and there weren’t enough good players to go around, not to mention the fact that he had the best player ever. For three more titles, Jackson had Shaq and Kobe, two of the three best players in the league at the time, another reason why he had it easier than Popovich.

Popovich has already won four titles and had 16 years straight of sustained success, all while never having a high draft pick since Duncan. He competed in a tougher league than Jackson, and a larger league than Auerbach. He won with far inferior players than either Jackson or Auerbach. That’s why I think Gregg Popovich is the best coach ever. Although some may disagree, another title will make it even clearer. That’s what’s at stake for Popovich these Finals.

Kobe Bryant:

As was briefly mentioned in the Duncan section, Kobe and Duncan are locked in a battle for the title of best post-Jordan superstar. Kobe is only in the conversation on the strength of his five titles. The problem with him is that he had a sub-500 season in his prime, along with 37 and 40 loss seasons in the two years immediately following it, not to mention another 37 loss season in 2012-13 when he had a ton of help. Also, the case could be easily made that his three titles during his three-peat from 2000 to 2002 don’t count as much as they were largely won on the back of Shaq while Kobe acted as an elite second banana.

If Duncan wins his fifth title, then Kobe loses whatever case he may have had as a better player as one of Kobe’s two big things that he was better than Duncan in (the other being points, in which Duncan is ranked 19^th to Kobe’s 4^th and is 7000 points behind Kobe) will be gone.

Despite his rivalry with LeBron, Kobe will be cheering for the Heat to prevent Duncan from surpassing him. In all, it’s a lose-lose for Kobe, and his legacy has never looked less secure since 2007, after three straight subpar seasons, before Pau Gasol came to Los Angeles in a one-sided deal that brought Kobe a few more elite seasons, a runner-up, and two titles.

I hope you enjoyed the article (and yes, I know, the cover picture is from last year’s Finals, but I thought it looked cool so just roll with it, okay?) and if you did, spread it around, share it with your friends and family, and anyone else who might like it. Thanks for reading and let’s hope for an amazing Game 2 tonight!

Week In Review May 26th-June 1st, 2014

Week In Review May 19th-25th 2014

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Well, it’s time for everybody’s favorite recurring segment on this blog, the Week in Review! Of course, there only is one recurring segment on this blog so I suppose that people can’t afford to be choosy, but whatever.

Sorry for the day late post—I was sick over the weekend and I only started to feel a little bit better yesterday. Of course, I relapsed today so that kinda sucks. I still managed to power through for you, my loyal reader. No need to thank me for putting my career in front of my health! By the way, I’m fourteen.

So this column was going to be crazy long so I took out the lottery part and made it into its own column as you presumably saw (and if you didn’t, go read it, you slacker!) it made this a lot shorter… so it’s still very long, but not crazy long, so it’s all good. You’ll thank me after you’ve read through all of this.

Monday, May 19^th, 2014

Carey Price is out for the rest of the series!!!!!!!! Sorry for all those exclamation points—I was excited. Let me explain: Carey Price is Montreal’s starting goalie and has been playing at an incredibly high level these playoffs. As always, for deep runs into the playoffs, a hot goalie is almost a requirement. The Habs were in good shape as long as Price was playing well. Then this happened:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSqo-FohCbQ

Yeah, so the Canadiens are pretty much screwed in regards to ending their 21 year Stanley Cup drought, as are the Canadians, who haven’t had a Stanley Cup won by a team from Canada since 1993, when Montreal won it. The drop-off from Price to backup, Peter Budaj, is a chasm and when the opposing team has the goalie who’s now indisputably the best and hottest goalie remaining in the playoffs, you’re not exactly in good shape.

With an injury causing ripples this serious, it’s easy to blame Kreider for gunning for Price but look at the video again. Kreider was tripped and then fell into Price. I can’t see anything that could possibly be misconstrued as him aiming to hurt Price. Clearly he’s not turning into Bernard Karmel Pollard, which is great for Habs fans.

In something too long and too important for mere parentheses, Bernard Pollard is a safety in the NFL. What relevance does this have to this situation? Well, over his career, Pollard was the one who hurt Tom Brady, Stevan Ridley, Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker and was the last person to tackle Aaron Hernandez, leading to near universal hatred from every Patriots fan. Now, whenever someone takes out an important player for the opposing team, they get compared to Pollard.

In something I found out a few hours after I wrote this originally, apparently Budaj isn’t going to be playing and that the Habs’ third string goalie is going to be playing the series. The series changed from a tossup favoring Montreal slightly, to Rangers in six as the accepted view, to the debate if the Rangers are going to sweep or if they’re going to win in five.

Speaking of which, as I found out later, the Rangers beat the Habs 3-1 to take a 2-0 series lead with the series heading back to New York for two games. Rangers fans (like me) are hoping that the series in the West goes to seven games so the Kings and Blackhawks beat up on each other so that the victor emerges bruised and bloody, to play the rested Rangers for the Stanley Cup. On talent alone, the Rangers aren’t anywhere near as good as Chicago or LA, but with rest for them and the other team being exhausted, will that be enough to push them over the top?

The Spurs beat OKC 122-105, showing that Ibaka’s injury is a very big deal and that the wily veterans still have enough left in the tank to defeat the young and athletic duo of Westbrook and Durant. Now, imagine the Thunder with Harden. They would have had the best 2-guard (Harden), a top 3 PG (Westbrook), a top 5 center (Ibaka), and the second best 3/stretch 4 (Durant, behind LeBron, although you could make the case that he’s nearly LeBron’s equal). Unbeatable. And now, when Durant and Westbrook’s shots aren’t falling, what do they have left to score and keep OKC’s offense alive? Jeremy Lamb? Steven Adams? Perry Ellis? Puh-lease.

Harden would have been great: instant scoring off the bench who could carry the team for a quarter if Durant and/or Westbrook were in foul trouble or mired in a bad shooting streak. But instead, Clay Bennett decided to be a cheapskate and not pay the perfect player for his team what he deserved. This is after he stole the team away from Seattle, sending Seattle into a funk that they hadn’t recovered from until the Seahawks’ Super Bowl victory a few months ago. Maybe Bennett should be added to the list of All-Time-Crappy-Owners that we talked about last week? (Let me know and send me an email). In case you couldn’t tell, I still can’t get over how bad that trade was for OKC.

Tuesday, May 20^th, 2014

In the horrible games that the Pacers have been wont to play lately, the Heat beat Indiana 87-83. How boring can you get? It’s funny, though, because the Pacers spent the whole year talking about how they were going to get home-field-advantage throughout the playoffs so they could beat the Heat, but now, in a best-of-five series, the Heat have home-court.

This is a problem for me. I like LeBron and, since the Nets got eliminated, I’ve been cheering for the Heat, but I need them to lose. Why? If Miami wins the championship again, then LeBron will almost HAVE to return to Miami so he can gun for a four-peat, something that neither Kobe nor Jordan ever accomplished. I want him to lose so he can go to a real contender. The Heat don’t have much cap space or good, young players, and LeBron will have to carry the team every night because Wade is always hurt and, even when healthy, he can’t dominate like he used to. If LeBron goes to Clippers (who have enough cap-space to accommodate him), he’ll get to play the 3, and he’ll get to play alongside Chris Paul (the best PG in the league), Blake Griffin (an elite power forward) and DeAndre Jordan (the shot-blocking menace playing center), meaning that he doesn’t have to carry the team every night, he doesn’t have to do everything himself, and he’s got by far the best team in the league for the next few years with a great shot at a championship EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. And all of this won’t happen if he wins again this year.

Should the Heat win it all this year, I hope that LeBron will opt into his option for 2014-2015 to chase the fabled 4-peat before entering into free agency in 2015 and going to the Clippers. Of course, basketball is stupid and it never turns out the way it should, so don’t bet on it happening.

Wednesday, May 21^st, 2014

San Antonio beat the Thunder 112-77, a 35 point blowout. Durant and Westbrook combined to shoot 13 for 40, a horrible display of shooting. As I said earlier, how much easier would it be for the Thunder if, when Durant and Westbrook aren’t able to score, to just let Harden carry the offense? And another thing that I forgot to mention earlier, as the Thunder don’t have much of an offensive system past “Hey Kevin/Russ, go score”, how much less of an offensive load would they have to carry if they still had Harden? As Harden is an offensive weapon in his own right, no opponent could swarm Westbrook and Durant while knowing that no one else on the Thunder will make a shot. Rather, because opponents would have to account for Harden as well, Durant and Westbrook would get far easier shots.

In hockey news, Los Angeles beat Chicago, 6-2. The Kings were down 2-0 before scoring six straight goals to win it. This is the first time all postseason that Chicago has lost at home. They’ve got a better advantage when defending their home than anyone other than the Byzantines in Constantinople. Yes! I made a reference to history! I’m totally acing this history final!

Thursday, May 22^nd, 2014

The Rangers lost to the Habs, 3-2, in overtime, in a very exciting game. Dustin Tokarski, the third string goalie for the Canadiens, let up only two goals in 37 shots, in a very impressive performance, outdueling Henrik Lundqvist, the hottest goalie remaining in the playoffs. The Rangers went up 1-0 in the first period, then the Habs tied it up. Then Montreal scored again to take a 2-1 lead, but after the Rangers pulled the goalie, they managed to score to send it to overtime, during which Montreal managed to score again to narrow their series deficit to 2-1 on the strength of their 3-2 victory. As far as I can tell, individual goalies aren’t particularly valuable in the NHL. For instance, Carey Price was playing incredibly, he got hurt, and Tokarski came in and played well in the first game and dominated the second. This is representative of the NHL overall (if you can think of any other examples, shoot me an email at sushi.krox@gmail.com).

Jurgen Klinsmann left Landon Donovan off the United States World Cup squad and there’s been serious uproar about it. I find that to be very foolish. Donovan, while he was very good a few years ago, is 32 years old and past his prime. While he may provide veteran leadership, the benefits of that leadership are apparently not enough of a boon in order to make it worth it to use up a roster spot that could be used for a younger, more valuable player. Of course, as always, there’s been an uproar about Donovan’s omission from the team. Why? Well, there’s one big reason. In the 24/7 world of sports coverage, there’s not enough real stories to fill up the whole time, so the networks will manufacture story lines to pass the time and make a big deal about things that really aren’t big deals. On the Internet, websites like Bleacher Report chase page views and create story lines that seem exciting so people will view their page. Remember what I wrote about Lance Stephenson last week (and if you don’t or if you haven’t read it, go read it)? Exactly the type of idiocy that people blow up out of proportion in order to get page views or to waste time. God, that really annoys me.

Friday, May 23^rd, 2014

Yet another boring Friday in the sports world. As it was like this last week as well, I hope it doesn’t continue like this: I need content. I’m dreading when the playoffs for both the NHL and NBA end and the only sport going on is baseball for a couple of months until football starts again. Ugh.

Anyways, so the latest subject that I want to talk about is the World Cup. Yes, I know, I talked about it yesterday, but this is a separate topic, or at least as separate as it can be when you’re talking about the World Cup.

Maybe, the reason why Klinsmann left off Donovan is because he’s preparing for 2018. Think about it—America is stuck in the Group of Death, alongside Germany, Portugal, and Ghana. If America has nearly no chance to get anywhere, then why not give playing time to the younger players who are going to be better in four years, rather than worse? Get them their reps, get them to know how it is to play on the biggest stage in the world, let them play so they can say in 2018 “I’ve been here before, this isn’t a big deal anymore”. Clearly the United States doesn’t have a shot in this World Cup and I think it’s a good move by Klinsmann to recognize that and prepare for the future.

Saturday, May 24^th, 2014

The Pacers were ripping through the Heat: they had a lead of fifteen points, they were outmuscling Miami, and Roy Hibbert had more than zero points and zero rebounds. Then, it all changed. Miami turned it on and, after a couple of 3s from Wade, Ray Allen hit a few threes, and Hibbert went back to being Hasheem Thabeet. All is well in the world. Wade and Allen are probably chuckling right now thinking “They said we were old and washed up? Haha, (censured to allow this blog to still be mostly PG) please!”

How bummed out are the Pacers right now? They spent the whole year talking about how awesome they are and how they were going to beat the Heat, traded for Evan Turner and Luis Scola (sacrificing picks and players to do so), and were playing well. Then they sucked for three months and got whupped by the Heat on national television. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Sunday, May 25^th, 2014

The Thunder managed to stem the bleeding, beating the Spurs 106-97, with Serge Ibaka returning to the lineup after he was supposed to be out for the rest of the year. Since Ibaka is emerging as a legitimate third banana to Durant and Westbrook, I can’t wait until Sam Presti and Clay Bennett trade him away for a low first rounder, a couple of second rounders, and that guy at your rec center who always dominates the pickup games. Bennett will get away with being a cheapskate too—all his mistakes are covered up by having Westbrook and Durant. And he also stole the Sonics away from Seattle. What a scumbag.

The Rangers beat Montreal 3-2 in overtime to take a 3-1 series lead! Just one more win, a seven game series in the West, and the Rangers have a good shot at their first Cup in twenty years! At the very least, they’re one win away from being in their first Final in twenty years. And, they’ve got a 3-1 series lead, almost insurmountable. The last time the Habs recovered from a 3-1 deficit to win a series was so long ago. Let me just look it up to lend credence to my argument. *looks it up* The last time Montreal came back to win a series from a 3-1 deficit was… four years ago, against the Capitals, in 2010. Gulp.

Hope you enjoyed, and remember to share this blog with everyone who you think would like it (and even those who wouldn’t). Thanks!

The Lottery and the Cavaliers

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Well, I was in the middle of writing the Week In Review column about the lottery when I realized that I had enough to say that I needed to devote a whole column to expressing my thoughts on the lottery. Hope you enjoy!

The Cavs won the lottery. This has a lot of ripples, like tossing a boulder into a small pond. Most relevant to me, it’s going to be hard for me to write about how God hates Cleveland anymore now that they’ve won three lotteries in four years. Of course, the only year in the last year that they didn’t win the lottery had Anthony Davis as the top pick, the last ‘sure thing’ superstar center in the draft since 2008 when Greg Oden was the presumptive 1^st overall pick (although we all know how that panned out) so maybe God STILL hates Cleveland. We can always hope. Or, maybe, three first overall picks in four years may be compensation from the Basketball Gods for LeBron leaving, and ripping their hearts out in the process. This is all waaay too confusing. Let’s hold off on a decision to make sure that Cavs don’t screw it up, either by taking Embiid and his back problems flaring up or taking a point guard like Dante Exum while somehow forgetting that they’ve already got an all-star point guard (see: Irving, Kyrie). Don’t count out the Cavs from doing something stupid like that, they’re capable of doing anything. They’re absolutely crazy.

Should the Cavs should be rewarded with the first overall pick? They’re incompetent and horribly run, but at least they tried to win this year. They sent picks and Andrew Bynum to Chicago for Luol Deng and they sent a couple of second rounders to Philly for Spencer Hawes, although that evidently didn’t work out too well. The question is whether or not the trying hard outweighs the fact that the Cavaliers are a dysfunctional organization.

This conundrum also applies to the Suns, Bucks, and Bobcats—wait, Hornets. (Quick tangent: As far as I can tell, the whole point of a team’s name is to sound strong and powerful. That’s why you see names like the Giants or the Kings throughout sports. I’ve always thought it amusing when teams use names like the Hornets—am I supposed to be intimidated by a bug? Being the Bobcats was a lot better and moving down the scale-of-scary-names was not a great idea. At least they weren’t as bad as New Orleans, who originally had the name of Hornets and then decided to become the Pelicans. Wow, I’m scared. I suppose that tangent wasn’t all that quick, but whatever.) We’ll be getting to the Hornets in a bit but I’ll quickly go through the Suns and Bucks.

First, Milwaukee. They tried to win this year and never officially started tanking, but they were led by Herb Kohl who just wanted to make the playoffs. While they wanted to do well, they didn’t exactly go the right way about doing so. Of course, the best thing for them to do to be good is to tank (which is what they ended up unwittingly doing) just showing how weird it is to be in a league in which eight teams were aiming to willfully throw their seasons away in order to get better in the long run and how that strategy actually makes sense.

Now for Phoenix. Phoenix was planning on throwing away their season, but when they were unexpectedly good at the start of the year, the rolled with it and finished with 48 wins which would have made them the three seed in the Eastern Conference. Of course, in the West, they missed the playoffs and ended up in the lottery anyway. How are they not being rewarded for trying their best? To solve this problem, here’s what I propose: a complete change of the lottery system.

It’s always great when a borderline good team manages to acquire a transcendent player to turn them into a very good team. Of course, with the lottery, that never actually happens. Why not change the lottery around? Clearly, you can’t have tanking, nor can you have the elite teams getting even better, so here’s my proposal: You have the same lottery format, but with switched odds. So, this year, Phoenix would have had a 25% shot at the #1 pick. You can’t tell me that it wouldn’t be awesome to see Wiggins or Embiid tearing up the NBA with the Suns next year. Teams couldn’t purposely lose games because they’d be destroying their hopes for the playoffs AND for the lottery. The only potential downside is an eight seed tanking out of their spot for a good shot at the 1 pick, but that’s okay for three reasons: One, rather than having eight teams tanking, we’d only have, at most, two or three. Two, teams attempt to tank out of the playoffs to get into the lottery anwyay. This year the Hawks did their best to get out of the playoffs but they were unable to, due to the incompetence of the Knicks and Cavs. Three, it’d be fine with me if we were improving teams that were already half-decent. Why aren’t we doing this? Get Silver on the line!

The Cavs moving up to number one overall is quite bad for the Pistons as they had a top eight protected pick that they owed to Charlotte in the Ben Gordon for Corey Maggette bad contract swap. When the lottery began, Detroit was in the 8^th spot, but when Cleveland moved ahead of them, they moved down to the 9^th pick, meaning that they had to send it away to Charlotte. It means that the Pistons won’t have a draft pick in Steve Van Gundy’s first year, something that dampens the excitement that he brought to their organization. On the flip side, the Bobcats are an up-and-coming team and, after adding a high draft pick, they have a chance to get even better. That’s how the lottery SHOULD be, improving teams that are genuinely attempting to get better. Who would rather see a young star having his growth stunted by having to carry a crappy team by himself over a team that’s already pretty good getting two high-ish picks and reinforcements. For me, at least, it’s no contest. Charlotte now, depending on how well they pick, have a chance to improve enough to get the 4^th or 5^th seed, maybe even the 3^rd seed (and if LeBron leaves Miami to go to the West, the two seed). Hell, if Toronto can get the 3 seed, certainly Charlotte with a couple of new, very good, rookies can too.

Other ripples: after destroying its team and MCW’s good habits, the 76ers only have the third overall pick and the tenth overall pick, which they got from New Orleans in the Nerlens Noel and top 5 protected pick for Jrue Holiday robbery—I mean trade. The Cavs moving up affected the Sixers a lot as they moved from the potential 2^nd overall and 9^th overall to 3^rd and 10^th. Kind of sucks for the Sixers and their fans when after ravaging their team and throwing away a season they only get the 3^rd pick. It’s great for everyone else though: it shows that tanking doesn’t result in a guaranteed superstar and that the lottery works (although that’s debatable after the Cavs winning three times in four years). Other than that, there’s all the aforementioned story lines in play from before.

Hope you enjoyed and I can’t wait until the draft (I think I’ll even write a running diary for that too).

Week In Review: May 12th-May 18th 2014