How do you create a juggernaut in fantasy baseball? By drafting or trading for players for whom your evaluations are different than everyone else’s. How do you create a team that’s eliminated by Memorial Day? The same exact way. The differences in opinion about different players are what give rise to either destroying or being destroyed by your opposition.

For instance, in my home league, I valued Josh Donaldson as a top-20 player, believing that the change in ballpark and lineup would make him an elite asset. On the other hand, conventional thinking ranked him in the mid-30s. I ended up taking Donaldson with my third round pick, 27th overall, and he’s been a top three asset for me to date.

Of course, not all departures from mainstream opinion work out well. I liked Christian Yelich a lot this year, gambled on him with my seventh rounder, and dropped him at the beginning of May. In this case, the majority was correct.

If I had been as wrong about Donaldson as I was about Yelich, I’d be at a massive disadvantage without a third rounder. Instead it worked out, and I ended up with a superstar pick in the third round, giving me a big edge over my opponents. This gap between best and worst case scenarios is pivotal– it can make or break your season.

Moving away from my team, the two most divisive players at the top of the draft were Troy Tulowitzki and Bryce Harper. Each went in the mid-to-high second round to those few willing to take a big risk for a shot at a superstar, when most rankings had them at least a round lower.

As we all know, Harper’s been the second best player in the league while Tulowitzki has merely been a good shortstop. If you used your second round pick on Harper, you’re ecstatic, and your risky pick has been vindicated. On the other hand, if you used that same second rounder on Tulowitzki, you’re mildly disappointed. Both players had the same wide range of possible outcomes, though, but only one was a huge success.

You might be thinking that this strategy of deviating from conventional rankings is too risky to attempt, that it’s more prudent to stick with guaranteed security, but if that’s the course you choose to take, what are you really getting? You’ll finish in the middle of your league, you won’t embarrass yourself, but you won’t win anything. If you go with that strategy, you’ll finish in front of the guy who drafted Tulowitzki, who’s likely in last place, or close to it, but you’ll be far behind the guy who drafted Harper, who’s likely in the midst of a battle for first.

Yes, it’s inherently to risky to go out on a limb to say that you’ve found something that everyone else has missed, that you’re right and everyone else is wrong. But if all you do is try not to lose, capping your upside by taking safe players, are you really trying to win your league?

The problem with writing a blog about fantasy baseball is that you give away your secrets, opinions, and tricks, and if your league-mates see what you write, well, good-bye to whatever advantage you may have had. Oh well.

Anyways, today I was looking through the owned percentage list on Yahoo, and I was astounded by the some of the hitters that are still owned in a large majority of leagues, giving me an idea for a column. With that, I present to you “How Is He Still Owned?”, the fantasy baseball version of John Oliver’s “How Is This Still A Thing?”.

The five hitters on this list are owned in over three quarters of Yahoo leagues, which just makes you wonder: “How Is He Still Owned?”.

Jorge Soler (owned in 80% of leagues): Soler is, to me, one of the most overrated players in the game. His main appeal is that he’s young and that he’s part of Chicago Cubs elite hitting prospect parade. The problem with him, though, aside from the fact that he’s currently on the DL with an ankle injury, is that he strikes out. A lot. That’d be fine if he were George Springer, who counteracts his copious amounts of strikeouts with a bunch of home runs and stolen bases, but Soler has been subpar across the board so far this season.

Yadier Molina (85%): Molina has such a great reputation that people seem to forget that, although he’s a great baseball player, he isn’t good for fantasy. In fact, he’s extremely overrated. In his twelve year career, although his average has consistently been good, Molina has topped fourteen home runs once, 65 RBIs twice, and he’s never had more than 68 runs. Despite all this, Molina was drafted in the ninth round in my twelve-team league this year, right in front of Mookie Betts and Jake Arrieta. He’s ranked sixteenth on the ESPN Player Rater, just behind the immortal Michael McKenry, Colorado’s backup catcher. McKenry’s owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues, and that’s a lot closer to where Molina’s ownership percentage should be too.

Mark Trumbo (83%): What’s not to love about a power hitter with nine home runs. accompanied by a sparkling 278 OBP and subpar counting stats? And this superstar is somehow owned in more than eight out of ten leagues? Nori Aoki and Dexter Fowler are all somehow less owned than Trumbo. How is that possible?

David Wright (76%): This pains me deeply, as a long-suffering Mets fan, but David Wright should not be owned in 76% of leagues. He’s often injured, he’s been out for a couple of months, and there’s no timetable for his return. Even last year, when he was healthy, Wright was significantly below average in all counting stats. There’s no way his performance and outlook for the future warrant that high of an ownership percentage.

Jason Heyward (87%): Heyward is almost as overrated as Molina, his teammate on the Cardinals. Heyward’s an amazing defensive outfielder, which is why the Shelby Miller swap with the Braves isn’t as bad as it seems for St. Louis. However, while Heyward is a defensive wizard, he’s regressed significantly since his 20-20 season in 2012. OPS is a nice simple statistic to use for player evaluations since it combines the ability to hit for power and the ability to get on base. Heyward’s is .676, which isn’t rosterable in any but the deepest formats, but, despite this, he’s still somehow wasting a roster spot in most leagues.

I guess the important question to ask about each of these five players is: “How Is He Still Owned?”

If you have any questions about fantasy baseball, individual players, trade offers, rest of season outlooks, or anything else, email me at sushi.krox@gmail.com and I’ll answer your question on Sushi On Sports

Fantasy analysts always tell you to “buy low” and to “sell high”. The problem with this advice is twofold.

First, everyone else in your league has heard the same advice and are on guard against being snookered into a disadvantageous deal.

Second, the types of players they tell you to trade and to trade for are illogical. They say “sell high on Mike Pelfrey” or “buy low on Jose Abreu”, but that’s just foolish. Everyone in your league is aware that Abreu is probably going to turn it around and that Pelfrey’s production is likely to fall off a cliff.

What buying low and selling high should really be about is taking advantage of changing opinions of genuinely good players. Case in point, a couple of weeks ago, Prince Fielder had hit four home runs along with twelve RBI in a four day span. Before this hot streak, Fielder had a top notch AVG and OBP, but the power numbers didn’t follow, but after these four games, his homers and RBIs were in line with the rest of his stats. With these counting stats added in, Fielder was a top ten player.

I drafted Fielder in the fifth round this year. Last year, before his neck injury, he was drafted in the second round. At this point Fielder was looking so good that his value went even higher than it was before last year’s season-ending injury. Taking advantage of these shifting expectations, I participated in a three-way trade, of which the most important part for me was getting Paul Goldschmidt for Fielder.

Now, do I think that Fielder will be a great player for the rest of the season? Absolutely. Do I think he’ll be a top ten player the rest of the season? Probably not.

I think that’s the point of buying low and selling high. Trade good players who people would want regardless, get their expectations shifted ever so slightly by whatever happens to be going on at the moment, and then reap the rewards.

With all this in mind, let’s take a look at a few players to sell high and to buy low on.

Sell High:

Troy Tulowitzki: Over the past two weeks, through a mere forty at bats, Tulo has hit five home runs with eleven runs and fourteen RBIs, with a .450/.500 slash line. Tulowitzki was regarded as a top 20 player before the season and, quite frankly, for the first month and a half of it, he sucked, but after this hot streak, his seasonal stats are back up to a level which could be considered elite.This is the perfect time to sell: Tulo has a great track record, was well-regarded before the season, is risky to own, has been bad for most of the season, and his stats look fine because he’s been awesome lately. I wrote this in my shortstop column from last week, but if you can trade Tulo for a guy like Jhonny Peralta and another good player, I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Jose Reyes: The Toronto shortstop has stolen five bases over the past week. Yes, there have been plenty of other nice stats over this streak, but the stolen bases are what’s important. Reyes looks like he’s over his rib issue and he seems like he’s ready to return to being a top-five shortstop. Don’t let him fool you. During his rehab, Reyes said that his injury was going to linger throughout the year. That’s never a good sign. Overall, I still like Reyes plenty, as the games he ends up playing will be highly productive, but if you can get someone who thinks he’ll be healthy for the rest of the year, let him take that risk. Like with Tulowitzki, if you can trade Reyes for Peralta and another good player, do it as fast as you can before your trade partner changes his mind.

Albert Pujols: I actually traded away both Pujols and Reyes as part of the Goldschmidt trade (although I did get Ian Desmond and Josh Reddick in return). Pujols eventually found his way to my opponent for that week, where he promptly hit three home runs in three days. He didn’t stop there, and he’s now hit seven home runs in total over the past two weeks, bringing his season total up to fifteen. Even with this hot streak, Pujols is still only hitting .258 on the year and despite having fifteen home runs and batting behind Mike Trout, he only has 28 RBIs on the year. See if you can convince someone that Pujols is a top-10 first baseman. If you can, trade him for that amount of value, but if not, he doesn’t bring the same risk that the two shortstops above do, and it’s worth it just to keep him.

Buy Low:

Edwin Encarnacion: There isn’t a better buy-low candidate in the whole league. Encarnacion is battling a shoulder injury and has been out for the last couple of games. Over the past two weeks, even when he’s played, Encarnacion has struggled, going 3-27 with a measly one RBI. There’s no way that he’s going to continue to play that poorly, but this slump has dragged his seasonal stats down to the extent that his owner might be getting antsy and worried, which is when you pounce. Don’t forget that Encarnacion bats cleanup in the best lineup in the game and that he’s one of the best power hitters in MLB. Value him as a top five first baseman, but try to convince your trade partner that he’s in danger of falling out of the top ten and be willing to trade what you need to get him, even if you let his owner talk you into trading top eight first baseman value for him.

Pablo Sandoval: The Kung-Fu Panda hasn’t acclimated nicely to Boston. He’s been pitiful so far this year, with five home runs and only seventeen RBIs. Obviously don’t overpay for him, but there’s always value to be had in trading for a struggling player in a good lineup, especially when said player is a third baseman, where there’s been a huge drop off after the best six or seven at the position.

Victor Martinez: V-Mart had a breakout season last year, at age 36 (PEDs, anyone?), and was drafted in the fourth or fifth rounds this season. He started off terribly and was dropped in my league. Someone picked him up, but then dropped him once he went on the DL. Once I saw this, I picked him up immediately and have stashed him in my DL spot since. There’s no way Martinez will come close to last year’s stats, an aberration that won’t happen again, but throughout his career he’s had a solid baseline of a good AVG and OBP, some power, and few strikeouts. That’s worth at least a brief inquiry into the cost of acquiring Martinez, especially since you’ll be able to get him on the cheap by pointing to his age, his injury, and his poor seasonal stats that’ll change for the better.

If you have any questions about fantasy baseball, individual players, trade offers, rest of season outlooks, or anything else, email me at sushi.krox@gmail.com and I’ll answer your question on Sushi On Sports

As promised, today we’re going to go through a couple of trades from a month and a half ago that I thought were ripoffs at the time. Let’s see whether my original reaction was accurate and if my reasoning was fine or erroneous and if so, why it was.

Trade 1: Carlos Santana, Matt Kemp, and George Kontos for Brian McCann and Miguel Castro

Initial Reaction: Incredibly lopsided in favor of the team getting Santana

Reasoning: Kontos was an irrelevant throwaway and would be dropped immediately. Kemp has had a good track record, was a fourth round pick, and batted behind Justin Upton. I believed Santana was significantly more valuable than McCann, with eligibility at C, 1B, and 3B, and has consistently had more power, a much higher OBP, and better counting stats. Castro was the Blue Jays’ closer for a week or two at the time of this trade and I didn’t think he would stick around long.

Accuracy: This was a mixed bag of assessments. Kemp has been subpar (as we went through together in https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/unraveling-the-padres-outfield/) and currently a huge bust. Santana has been good so far, with some power along with the expected high OBP and low AVG, but McCann has been surprisingly okay, although he’s still been much worse than Santana. As to Castro? Well, I actually had to look him up to remember who was since he’s been irrelevant for so long. He ended up losing the job less than a couple of weeks after this trade was made and has been the minors since.

Current Assessment: Still uneven, not fair at all, but not the brutal trade I expected when it was made.

Trade 2: Mark Melancon, Adam Ottavino, and Russell Martin for Ian Kinsler and Cory Dickerson

Initial Reaction: The team getting Kinsler wins easily

Reasoning: As I mentioned in my last post (https://sushionsports.wordpress.com/2015/06/03/trade-evaluation-harper-and-degrom-for-jones-and-abreu/) closers are useless in my league, as there’s only one category among the sixteen we play with that they’re above average in, and that’s saves. As a result, I considered Melancon and Ottavino to be almost worthless, especially with Melancon’s declining velocity and multiple blowups and Ottavino’s short track record and little job security. I’ve long considered Kinsler to among the best fantasy second basemen in the game with huge counting stats in Detroit’s lineup, and last year, Dickerson had an impressive breakout season and played in Coors Field. I liked Martin a lot this year, with the move to a loaded lineup and a hitters park, but I didn’t think he was enough to even the gap between the two sides.

Accuracy: Another mixed bag. Ottavino didn’t keep the job for long, as I predicted, but it was because of a season-ending injury, not because he sucked. Melancon has turned it around but his velocity hasn’t improved so he’s still a ticking time bomb. Martin has been very good so far this year and looks to be an elite catcher. Dickerson continued to be very good, but he went down with plantar fasclitis a few weeks ago and has been out ever since. There’s no timetable for his return. Lastly, Kinsler has been mildly disappointing but still a starting-caliber 2B.

Current Assessment: As of now, against all odds, the team that got Martin is winning, ever so slightly, but once Dickerson comes back and Kinsler turns it around, the trade should shift back in the other team’s favor.

I play in a 12 team head-to-head mixed league with 8×8 scoring (with OBP, Ks, and hits on the hitting side, quality starts, innings pitched, and relief appearances on the pitching side with K/9 in place of Ks). The league is extremely active; everyone checks every day and there are plenty of transactions made as part of the weekly chess match that is fantasy baseball.

Another symptom of everyone’s interest in it, my league has trade talks of all kinds going on nonstop, resulting in plenty of interesting trades. For my next post, I plan on looking back a month or so to a couple of trades at the start of the season to review my reaction from back then and to gauge whether or not my initial feelings were accurate.

Today, however, I’ll examine a trade that happened early this morning that shifted the landscape of the league, with three players from the top two rounds changing hands along with a breakout pitcher. The trade? Bryce Harper and Jacob DeGrom for Adam Jones and Jose Abreu. Let’s break down the deal and see if it was worth it for both sides.

The team getting the Harper side, let’s call it Team A, has struggled so far this year. Last year, its owner traded away his best players for high draft picks this year and the team was expected to do well. Despite this, Team A is mired in 11th place, over 30 games out of first place.

How did this happen? Well, the first most important thing to know about my league is that because there are no transaction limits and because of the categories we use, pitchers mean nothing. With that in mind, Team A used three of its eight picks in the first four rounds on pitchers, nabbing Chris Sale, David Price, and Corey Kluber. All three of those guys have been performing well but it doesn’t really matter because of the hitting-pitching disparity in the league.

He spent the other five top 42 picks on hitters, but the problem was the hitters he acquired. Carloz Gonzalez and Robinson Cano have been busts and Jose Abreu, Adam Jones, and Evan Longoria have been only okay instead of the studs that were expected. With the possible exception of Gonzalez, none of these players were predicted to play as poorly as they’ve been so far. With this trade, Team A aims to acquire the superstar it missed out on during the draft.

On the opposite side of the trade, we have Team B, a team that took a second-round gamble on Harper and has seen it pay off big-time. Team B’s owner is an avid trader, making the most trades in the league, including a three-way trade with me last week that we’ll talk about another time.

Team B has a team built around streaming meaning that DeGrom means little to it. As to its hitters, the starters consist of a few very good players and few very average players. This trade allows Team B to exchange one of those average guys for another very good player, a valuable improvement.

I have three big rules when evaluating trades. Let’s run through them and see which team comes out on top by each criterion.

First is to never ever trade for past stats. To illustrate this point, let’s say that Player A and Player B will both hit 30 home runs this year but so far Player A has 13 homers to Player B’s 7. Player A looks better right now, but for the future, Player B will have 23 home runs compared to Player A’s 17, a significant gap in value. While real life is never as simple as the players outlined in this scenario, it still pays to bear this concept in mind.

Looking at this trade, Jones and Abreu have underperformed expectations significantly, while the opposite is true for Harper and DeGrom. By this measure, Team B has the advantage.

Next, a simple rule of thumb is to always trade one stud for two. Once you get past a certain level, while some players are better than others, all of them are really good. The three hitters in this trade all meet those standards so while yes, Harper is better than Abreu and Jones, despite my lack of aptitude in math, I’m pretty sure that two is more than one, giving Team B the edge.

The last tool I use to judge trades is even simpler than the last one: always get the best player in the trade. Harper, even assuming he doesn’t keep up the torrid pace he’s set for himself, is still going to be a superstar the rest of the way, barring injury.

Personally, if I had to choose, I prefer the Jones/Abreu side over the Harper/DeGrom side. To me, getting two great players for one is always a trade I want to make. Also, after making this trade, Team A has more depth issues than it had before. Our league has ten starting spots for hitters (one from each position plus two utility slots) which means, obviously, that one needs ten quality hitters. Team B gets one closer to that magic number while Team A loses ground.

On the other hand, Harper has been the second best player in fantasy this year. His production is insane and trading him leaves a big hole in your outfield that’s nigh impossible to replace.

All in all, it’s a fair deal, the two teams exchanging security and safety for upside and risk. Of course, the initial opinion of a deal matters very little so with the benefit of hindsight, we’ll examine this trade again in a month or two to see whether or not our analysis was correct.

So far this season, the position of shortstop has been a desolate fantasy wasteland. Many presumptive studs have taken nosedives and there are very few shortstops whom you can just set and forget.

When comparing two players, the important question to ask yourself is not “Who’s better?”. For fantasy, what’s already happened is in the past–it’s irrelevant for the future. The most important question to answer is “Who will be better from now on?”. After all, in a trade, you’re not trading the stats the players have already amassed, you’re trading for the stats you think they’ll collect in the future.

With that in mind, it’s time to rank the top 12 shortstops for the rest of the season, all of the players who are likely to be starters in a 12 team league.

1. Hanley Ramirez: Han-Ram is getting old and is oft injured, but he hits in a loaded lineup and 130 games from him is better than full seasons from nearly every of his competitors

2. Ian Desmond: Desmond counteracts a low AVG and OBP with a string of 20-20 seasons and high counting stats batting near the top of Washington’s lineup. His upside isn’t as high as Ramirez or the next couple of guys on this list, but he’s safe and reliable, and that’s important and valuable. For the rest of the year, I actually prefer Desmond over Ramirez because I know exactly what I’m getting with Desmond while Ramirez is no guarantee to do anything.

3. Jose Reyes: Reyes bats at the top of the best lineup in baseball, in front of three superstars, so he’s going to score a ton of runs with some stolen bases and a pretty good AVG. Of course, his rib injury from a few weeks ago is, according to him, going to linger all season, so there’s plenty of risk, but while he’s healthy, he’s very good.

4. Troy Tulowitzki: Last year Tulo was incredibly good when he was healthy, but due to a hip injury, only played 91 games. Because of that production, wishful thinkers drafted him early, dreaming of a full season from him. Well, so far, he has been healthy, but he just hasn’t been any good. Tulo is 30 and his injury history may be catching up with him but he’s still going to be better than where he is right now.

5. Jhonny Peralta: Peralta hits a lot of home runs for a shortstop–he’s averaged 19 per 162 games played during his career–and he gets plenty of RBI chances batting for a winning St. Louis team. He’s consistent and a worthy starting shortstop. If I could trade Tulowitzki for Peralta and another good player in the range of Starling Marte or Albert Pujols then I would do it in a heartbeat.

6. Alcides Escobar: I liked Escobar enough that before the year I was willing to not draft a second shortstop behind him for my team. I like him enough that I traded away Jose Reyes because I knew I could rely on Escobar instead. Speaking of Reyes, Escobar is pretty much Jose Reyes-lite. Looking at their stats from last year, they’re very similar players, but Escobar comes without the injury risk and with room for improvement with his move up to the leadoff spot in the Royals’ order.

7. Ben Zobrist: Zobrist’s value comes almost exclusively from his multi-positional eligibility, but he has a baseline of stats that you know you’re going to get. Also, if you happen to acquire a better shortstop, you can just shift Zobrist to another position instead.

8. Erick Aybar: Aybar is another veteran with whom you know exactly what you’re getting. His seasonal stats have recovered from a lousy start to the season and he’s moved up to the leadoff spot on the Angels, meaning that he now bats in front of Mike Trout, a boon for fantasy value.

9. Jimmy Rollins: I valued Rollins a lot more highly before last night when he was moved to seventh in the order from second. Rollins’ main value comes from his ability to both steal bases and hit home runs, but with fewer at bats, it’ll be harder for him to reach the stats he accrued last year when he batted atop the Phillies’ lineup.

10. Jung Ho Kang: I’ll readily admit that I was skeptical of Kang before the season. I doubted he’d be even mildly productive and that he’d be a drop candidate within a week. Luckily for his owners, that hasn’t been the case. He’s hitting for a high average and he bats in the heart of Pittsburgh’s order. My only quibbles are a lack of counting stats and his high strikeout rate, but at least the counting stats can be easily explained because he’s had only 114 at bats so far.

11. Alexei Ramirez: I liked Ramirez before the season, thinking that his poor rates would be manageable because of his top-notch power-speed combination. I was wrong. This whole season has just been one long slump for Ramirez. Still, there’s nowhere to go but up. He won’t put up seasonal stats close to those from last year, but they could still be viable as a starting shortstop.

12. Marcus Semien: Semien has been a reasonably good shortstop so far, with, like Zobrist, multi-positional eligibility. He has a few stolen bases, a few home runs, and a reasonable AVG and OBP. It’s not wise to count on him continuing at this level, especially as the Athletics may send him down due to his many errors, but he can still be an overall asset.

There are three notable omissions that I’d like to mention here. First, Starlin Castro, considered by many to be a top fantasy shortstop, has been horrendous with few stolen bases, meager power, and a sub .300 OBP. His counting stats are also lousy despite hitting behind Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, two on-base machines. If he doesn’t pick it up soon, Joe Maddon will move him out of the cleanup spot. I would never trade for him. Second, Wilmer Flores, despite his eight home runs, has been below-average in every other respect and even if he continues to hit for power, in the Mets offense, his other counting stats won’t keep pace. Last, Carlos Correa, a top prospect in the Astros farm system, has been very good in the minor leagues, but it’s foolish and ill-advised to rely on a rookie. After all, for every Kris Bryant or Joc Pederson there are five Dalton Pompeys.

Shortstop has been a thin and top-heavy position so far this year and it looks likely to stay that way. If you can get one of those top six shortstops, it’s worth it to overpay to gain safety and reliability at this brutal position. Even those six shortstops aren’t failsafes, with three big injury-risks among them.

With luck, you’ll be able to dodge these pitfalls and to manage these risks on your way to a championship. If not, well, see you next season.

Over the winter, San Diego went on a trading binge, coming away with starry additions such as Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Craig Kimbrel, along with lesser known players such as Wil Myers and Derek Norris.

Heading into Opening Day, San Diego’s new lineup looked amazing on paper. Of course, the operative phrase there has been “on paper”. Through the first two months of the season, the Padres have disappointed, ranking in the bottom third of the league in home runs, average, and on-base-percentage. The neglected infield has been predictably lousy, although at least Yangervis Solarte has been solid for them while shifting around the infield. The real intrigue for fantasy owners, however, is in the outfield, where, according to FantasyPros, the 39th, 47th, and 186th players in ADP reside.

There are plenty of questions relevant to fantasy baseball in this outfield that need to be answered.  Let’s go through each outfielder and attempt to determine their fantasy outlook for the rest of the season.

Justin Upton: Many people (myself included) deemed Upton a risky player to stay away from because of the change in ballpark to Petco, a move to a worse lineup, and whose stats weren’t amazing to begin with. Well, those who took a risk on him in the third or fourth round, have seen their gamble pay off. Upton has been an all-around stud, with 12 homers, 37 RBIs, and 22 runs already. Much of what Upton is doing is sustainable but there are two signs of possible regression. First, a big reason for his fantasy value thus far has been his 10 stolen bases. However, he’s 10-10 when attempting a steal, a rate that will obviously regress, perhaps back down to his career norm of just over a 70% success rate. Additionally, he’s never stolen more than 21 bases in a season. Second, his BABIP is .362 compared to a league average of about .300. His career BABIP is .334 so although his average and OBP are likely to regress, they’re unlikely to regress too drastically. Upton will remain a stud throughout the year, but I find it probable that he’ll end up a top 25-30 player instead of the top 10 player he is right now. If you can sell high and get back a proven yet underperforming stud like Michael Brantley in return I’d certainly consider it, but there’s no need to rush into a trade.

Matt Kemp: Since running into a wall in Coors Field in 2012, Kemp has never been fully healthy. Despite that, whenever he’s on the field, he usually hits. This year, that’s not been the case. Kemp has a brutal OBP of .284 and a single home run, resulting in an ugly OPS of .616. I’m not high on Kemp’s chances of returning to his former glory. The nagging injuries he’s dealt with for years may finally be catching up with him and the fact that he’s now on the wrong side of 30 only exacerbates the problem. If I owned him, I’d trade him as fast as I could for whatever I could get before he gets injured again and before all trade options for him dry up when owners realize that he’s not going to return to his previous heights.

Wil Myers: Myers’ value is tough to assess. On the positive side of the ledger, he’s young, was once a top prospect, and bats leadoff. On the negative, he doesn’t walk nearly enough for a leadoff hitter and he’s been out for a month with a wrist injury, an ailment that may linger for the rest of the season and interfere with his swing. I wouldn’t actively attempt to trade for him but I would be willing to take him on just in case he continues to improve. If I owned him I would be willing to trade him but I’d refuse to sell low. When entertaining trade offers for him, I would continue to point out the positives above and insist that he’s going to improve.

One player to look out for in the Padres’ outfield is Will Venable. If the Padres decide to sacrifice some offense for defense or if Myers’ wrist turns into a long-term problem, Venable will walk into a ton of playing time as San Diego’s starting centerfielder. In the past, when Venable has gotten consistent at bats, he’s consistently hit double digit home runs and stolen plenty of bases, including a four year run from 2010 to 2013 where he never had fewer than 22 stolen bases. As of now, it’s not worth it to pick him up in shallower leagues, but he’s certainly someone to monitor closely as the season progresses.