This week’s picks are going to be a little shorter than usual due to the holidays. The hope is that it’ll mean that I screw up slightly less.
On second thought, my picks are actually quite useful. The trick is to carefully read my picks… and then to do the exact opposite. Then you’re pretty much assured of a strong week.
At least I didn’t do too badly in Week 3, going 9-7. I’ll try and build on that instead of letting it come tumbling down like Tampa Bay’s season.
(Home team in caps)
New York Giants +3.5 over WASHINGTON
As always, this section was written on Wednesday
Kirk Cousins seems overrated to me. He’s had about 80 great pass attempts and 240 bad to middling ones. That doesn’t scream “FRANCHISE QB” to me, let alone even whispering it to me with a hoarse voice. Of course, he may be better than RGII and half so there’s that.
The Giants looked good last week against the Texans and they may have finally figured it out McAdoo’s offense. Of course, I’m starting the Washington D/ST in my fantasy matchup this week so I guess I’m not too confident in them. Let’s just move on before I change my pick.
Miami -4 over OAKLAND (in London)
I’m going against the Raiders until they give me a good reason not to. Until a 45 years younger George Blanda flies out from the sky on a unicorn then I’m going to keep going against them.
CHICAGO +1.5 over Green Bay
The Bears have looked great the last two weeks while the Pack Attack has been toothless. I think that Chicago’s offense is really good and that Green Bay’s probably is too. Their defenses are both bad. In a matchup between two equal teams, I’m just going to take the home team and the points and run with it.
This is also my Upset of the Week, sponsored by Taco Bell because of what their food will do to your stomach.
Buffalo +3 over HOUSTON
Both of these teams could be this year’s “Came out of nowhere to be a surprise 10 win playoff team”. Whichever one wins this game has the inside track to taking that title. The two teams seem to be about even and, as with the last game, I’ll just take the points.
INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 over Tennessee
Andrew the Giant against a team that’s already lost whatever goodwill that it built up from its dominating Week 1 win against Kansas City? AND they’re at home? Pencil this in as this week’s Derrick Rose Blowout of the Week!
Carolina +3 over BALTIMORE
Remember last week in the Baltimore-Cleveland section where I talked about the teams that I hate this year and will be betting against as much as I can? Yeah, Baltimore’s in that group. Until they show me something better than their poor play since their Super Bowl win, I’m not bothering to believe in them.
Also, a big underlying storyline from this Ravens season is the Ray Rice saga. And yeah, I know it’s a tired old narrative, but remember what happened last year with the Dolphins? They were going along quite swimmingly (and yes, I may have forced that in because of the Dolphins. So sue me) and then the Incognito scandal hit and they ended up missing the playoffs. So yeah, this type of stuff has the capacity to derail a full season and I think it’ll do the same for this year’s Ravens season.
I can’t stress enough how scared I am of going against the Ravens in the STEVE SMITH REVENGE GAME (which works best if you write it in bolded all caps). Steve Smith is a psycho. However, no matter the odds of Steve Smith running through the Carolina defense to score a touchdown, knocking over three hundred pound defensive linemen left and right, before flipping a double birdie at the Panthers bench, (I’d peg the odds at 5:2) I’m not going to go against the clearly superior team.
Detroit -1.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Lions are a good team. The Jets are not. Detroit should never be laying less than 7 points against the Jets, even when they’re on the road. This pick is just about as easy as could be. And yes, because I said that, there’s about a 99.37 chance that the Jets win by 20. You’re welcome New York.
Tampa Bay +7.5 over PITTSBURGH
Yes, the Steelers are better than the Bucs. The question is, to what extent? Honestly, I’m not sure, but I’d put it at around a touchdown. However, the Buccos have the super-important half point on top of a touchdown, leading me to take them.
SAN DIEGO -13 over Jacksonville
This, inventively enough, is my blowout pick of the week (sponsored by Derrick Rose). Yeah, I know it’s kind of a copout, choosing the highest line of the week as the biggest blowout, but still. Jacksonville sucks. San Diego is pretty good. Put those two together, and you get a blowout. It ain’t rocket science, folks.
Philadelphia +4.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Love Philly this year, hate the Niners. Chip Kelly’s offense will destroy San Fran’s weakened defense and I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is good enough (for my reasoning, read last week’s picks) to keep up with the Eagles’ offense.
Atlanta -3 over MINNESOTA
Great offensive team in a dome (albeit on the road)? And only laying three points? Has Christmas (or Chanuka) come early?
New Orleans -3 over DALLAS
The Saints have a top three offense (along with Denver and Philadelphia). The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses ever. You do the math.
New England -3 over KANSAS CITY
Since the Patriots of yore, in the early to mid 2000s, New England has been all about their offense. This year it’s finally starting to flip. Brady is getting older, his offensive line is lacking, and his only offensive weapons are a 75% healthy Gronk and Julian Edelman. Meanwhile, their defense is star-studded with guys like Vince Wilfork, Darrelle Revis, and Jerod Mayo. Of course, in this game, it’s all irrelevant against a Chiefs team that has been brutalized by injuries. Pats -3 all the way!
By the way, the last two weeks (including this one) have had their Thursday night games be the largest blowout of the week. This sucks for me because I generally post my picks on Friday which means that I can’t pick those games as the blowouts of the week. Can I preemptively pick the Thursday night game as the blowout of the week? At the very least, I’m doing it for this week with the Minnesota at Green Bay game being on Thursday.
Anyways, thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed this post. If you did, please share the link to this page. Muchas gracias in advance.
This Week: 1-0-0
Last Week: 9-7-0