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Trade Evaluation: Harper and DeGrom for Jones and Abreu

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I play in a 12 team head-to-head mixed league with 8×8 scoring (with OBP, Ks, and hits on the hitting side, quality starts, innings pitched, and relief appearances on the pitching side with K/9 in place of Ks). The league is extremely active; everyone checks every day and there are plenty of transactions made as part of the weekly chess match that is fantasy baseball.

Another symptom of everyone’s interest in it, my league has trade talks of all kinds going on nonstop, resulting in plenty of interesting trades. For my next post, I plan on looking back a month or so to a couple of trades at the start of the season to review my reaction from back then and to gauge whether or not my initial feelings were accurate.

Today, however, I’ll examine a trade that happened early this morning that shifted the landscape of the league, with three players from the top two rounds changing hands along with a breakout pitcher. The trade? Bryce Harper and Jacob DeGrom for Adam Jones and Jose Abreu. Let’s break down the deal and see if it was worth it for both sides.

The team getting the Harper side, let’s call it Team A, has struggled so far this year. Last year, its owner traded away his best players for high draft picks this year and the team was expected to do well. Despite this, Team A is mired in 11th place, over 30 games out of first place.

How did this happen? Well, the first most important thing to know about my league is that because there are no transaction limits and because of the categories we use, pitchers mean nothing. With that in mind, Team A used three of its eight picks in the first four rounds on pitchers, nabbing Chris Sale, David Price, and Corey Kluber. All three of those guys have been performing well but it doesn’t really matter because of the hitting-pitching disparity in the league.

He spent the other five top 42 picks on hitters, but the problem was the hitters he acquired. Carloz Gonzalez and Robinson Cano have been busts and Jose Abreu, Adam Jones, and Evan Longoria have been only okay instead of the studs that were expected. With the possible exception of Gonzalez, none of these players were predicted to play as poorly as they’ve been so far. With this trade, Team A aims to acquire the superstar it missed out on during the draft.

On the opposite side of the trade, we have Team B, a team that took a second-round gamble on Harper and has seen it pay off big-time. Team B’s owner is an avid trader, making the most trades in the league, including a three-way trade with me last week that we’ll talk about another time.

Team B has a team built around streaming meaning that DeGrom means little to it. As to its hitters, the starters consist of a few very good players and few very average players. This trade allows Team B to exchange one of those average guys for another very good player, a valuable improvement.

I have three big rules when evaluating trades. Let’s run through them and see which team comes out on top by each criterion.

First is to never ever trade for past stats. To illustrate this point, let’s say that Player A and Player B will both hit 30 home runs this year but so far Player A has 13 homers to Player B’s 7. Player A looks better right now, but for the future, Player B will have 23 home runs compared to Player A’s 17, a significant gap in value. While real life is never as simple as the players outlined in this scenario, it still pays to bear this concept in mind.

Looking at this trade, Jones and Abreu have underperformed expectations significantly, while the opposite is true for Harper and DeGrom. By this measure, Team B has the advantage.

Next, a simple rule of thumb is to always trade one stud for two. Once you get past a certain level, while some players are better than others, all of them are really good. The three hitters in this trade all meet those standards so while yes, Harper is better than Abreu and Jones, despite my lack of aptitude in math, I’m pretty sure that two is more than one, giving Team B the edge.

The last tool I use to judge trades is even simpler than the last one: always get the best player in the trade. Harper, even assuming he doesn’t keep up the torrid pace he’s set for himself, is still going to be a superstar the rest of the way, barring injury.

Personally, if I had to choose, I prefer the Jones/Abreu side over the Harper/DeGrom side. To me, getting two great players for one is always a trade I want to make. Also, after making this trade, Team A has more depth issues than it had before. Our league has ten starting spots for hitters (one from each position plus two utility slots) which means, obviously, that one needs ten quality hitters. Team B gets one closer to that magic number while Team A loses ground.

On the other hand, Harper has been the second best player in fantasy this year. His production is insane and trading him leaves a big hole in your outfield that’s nigh impossible to replace.

All in all, it’s a fair deal, the two teams exchanging security and safety for upside and risk. Of course, the initial opinion of a deal matters very little so with the benefit of hindsight, we’ll examine this trade again in a month or two to see whether or not our analysis was correct.

Ranking Fantasy Shortstops Going Forward

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So far this season, the position of shortstop has been a desolate fantasy wasteland. Many presumptive studs have taken nosedives and there are very few shortstops whom you can just set and forget.

When comparing two players, the important question to ask yourself is not “Who’s better?”. For fantasy, what’s already happened is in the past–it’s irrelevant for the future. The most important question to answer is “Who will be better from now on?”. After all, in a trade, you’re not trading the stats the players have already amassed, you’re trading for the stats you think they’ll collect in the future.

With that in mind, it’s time to rank the top 12 shortstops for the rest of the season, all of the players who are likely to be starters in a 12 team league.

1. Hanley Ramirez: Han-Ram is getting old and is oft injured, but he hits in a loaded lineup and 130 games from him is better than full seasons from nearly every of his competitors

2. Ian Desmond: Desmond counteracts a low AVG and OBP with a string of 20-20 seasons and high counting stats batting near the top of Washington’s lineup. His upside isn’t as high as Ramirez or the next couple of guys on this list, but he’s safe and reliable, and that’s important and valuable. For the rest of the year, I actually prefer Desmond over Ramirez because I know exactly what I’m getting with Desmond while Ramirez is no guarantee to do anything.

3. Jose Reyes: Reyes bats at the top of the best lineup in baseball, in front of three superstars, so he’s going to score a ton of runs with some stolen bases and a pretty good AVG. Of course, his rib injury from a few weeks ago is, according to him, going to linger all season, so there’s plenty of risk, but while he’s healthy, he’s very good.

4. Troy Tulowitzki: Last year Tulo was incredibly good when he was healthy, but due to a hip injury, only played 91 games. Because of that production, wishful thinkers drafted him early, dreaming of a full season from him. Well, so far, he has been healthy, but he just hasn’t been any good. Tulo is 30 and his injury history may be catching up with him but he’s still going to be better than where he is right now.

5. Jhonny Peralta: Peralta hits a lot of home runs for a shortstop–he’s averaged 19 per 162 games played during his career–and he gets plenty of RBI chances batting for a winning St. Louis team. He’s consistent and a worthy starting shortstop. If I could trade Tulowitzki for Peralta and another good player in the range of Starling Marte or Albert Pujols then I would do it in a heartbeat.

6. Alcides Escobar: I liked Escobar enough that before the year I was willing to not draft a second shortstop behind him for my team. I like him enough that I traded away Jose Reyes because I knew I could rely on Escobar instead. Speaking of Reyes, Escobar is pretty much Jose Reyes-lite. Looking at their stats from last year, they’re very similar players, but Escobar comes without the injury risk and with room for improvement with his move up to the leadoff spot in the Royals’ order.

7. Ben Zobrist: Zobrist’s value comes almost exclusively from his multi-positional eligibility, but he has a baseline of stats that you know you’re going to get. Also, if you happen to acquire a better shortstop, you can just shift Zobrist to another position instead.

8. Erick Aybar: Aybar is another veteran with whom you know exactly what you’re getting. His seasonal stats have recovered from a lousy start to the season and he’s moved up to the leadoff spot on the Angels, meaning that he now bats in front of Mike Trout, a boon for fantasy value.

9. Jimmy Rollins: I valued Rollins a lot more highly before last night when he was moved to seventh in the order from second. Rollins’ main value comes from his ability to both steal bases and hit home runs, but with fewer at bats, it’ll be harder for him to reach the stats he accrued last year when he batted atop the Phillies’ lineup.

10. Jung Ho Kang: I’ll readily admit that I was skeptical of Kang before the season. I doubted he’d be even mildly productive and that he’d be a drop candidate within a week. Luckily for his owners, that hasn’t been the case. He’s hitting for a high average and he bats in the heart of Pittsburgh’s order. My only quibbles are a lack of counting stats and his high strikeout rate, but at least the counting stats can be easily explained because he’s had only 114 at bats so far.

11. Alexei Ramirez: I liked Ramirez before the season, thinking that his poor rates would be manageable because of his top-notch power-speed combination. I was wrong. This whole season has just been one long slump for Ramirez. Still, there’s nowhere to go but up. He won’t put up seasonal stats close to those from last year, but they could still be viable as a starting shortstop.

12. Marcus Semien: Semien has been a reasonably good shortstop so far, with, like Zobrist, multi-positional eligibility. He has a few stolen bases, a few home runs, and a reasonable AVG and OBP. It’s not wise to count on him continuing at this level, especially as the Athletics may send him down due to his many errors, but he can still be an overall asset.

There are three notable omissions that I’d like to mention here. First, Starlin Castro, considered by many to be a top fantasy shortstop, has been horrendous with few stolen bases, meager power, and a sub .300 OBP. His counting stats are also lousy despite hitting behind Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, two on-base machines. If he doesn’t pick it up soon, Joe Maddon will move him out of the cleanup spot. I would never trade for him. Second, Wilmer Flores, despite his eight home runs, has been below-average in every other respect and even if he continues to hit for power, in the Mets offense, his other counting stats won’t keep pace. Last, Carlos Correa, a top prospect in the Astros farm system, has been very good in the minor leagues, but it’s foolish and ill-advised to rely on a rookie. After all, for every Kris Bryant or Joc Pederson there are five Dalton Pompeys.

Shortstop has been a thin and top-heavy position so far this year and it looks likely to stay that way. If you can get one of those top six shortstops, it’s worth it to overpay to gain safety and reliability at this brutal position. Even those six shortstops aren’t failsafes, with three big injury-risks among them.

With luck, you’ll be able to dodge these pitfalls and to manage these risks on your way to a championship. If not, well, see you next season.

Unraveling the Padres’ Outfield

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Over the winter, San Diego went on a trading binge, coming away with starry additions such as Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Craig Kimbrel, along with lesser known players such as Wil Myers and Derek Norris.

Heading into Opening Day, San Diego’s new lineup looked amazing on paper. Of course, the operative phrase there has been “on paper”. Through the first two months of the season, the Padres have disappointed, ranking in the bottom third of the league in home runs, average, and on-base-percentage. The neglected infield has been predictably lousy, although at least Yangervis Solarte has been solid for them while shifting around the infield. The real intrigue for fantasy owners, however, is in the outfield, where, according to FantasyPros, the 39th, 47th, and 186th players in ADP reside.

There are plenty of questions relevant to fantasy baseball in this outfield that need to be answered.  Let’s go through each outfielder and attempt to determine their fantasy outlook for the rest of the season.

Justin Upton: Many people (myself included) deemed Upton a risky player to stay away from because of the change in ballpark to Petco, a move to a worse lineup, and whose stats weren’t amazing to begin with. Well, those who took a risk on him in the third or fourth round, have seen their gamble pay off. Upton has been an all-around stud, with 12 homers, 37 RBIs, and 22 runs already. Much of what Upton is doing is sustainable but there are two signs of possible regression. First, a big reason for his fantasy value thus far has been his 10 stolen bases. However, he’s 10-10 when attempting a steal, a rate that will obviously regress, perhaps back down to his career norm of just over a 70% success rate. Additionally, he’s never stolen more than 21 bases in a season. Second, his BABIP is .362 compared to a league average of about .300. His career BABIP is .334 so although his average and OBP are likely to regress, they’re unlikely to regress too drastically. Upton will remain a stud throughout the year, but I find it probable that he’ll end up a top 25-30 player instead of the top 10 player he is right now. If you can sell high and get back a proven yet underperforming stud like Michael Brantley in return I’d certainly consider it, but there’s no need to rush into a trade.

Matt Kemp: Since running into a wall in Coors Field in 2012, Kemp has never been fully healthy. Despite that, whenever he’s on the field, he usually hits. This year, that’s not been the case. Kemp has a brutal OBP of .284 and a single home run, resulting in an ugly OPS of .616. I’m not high on Kemp’s chances of returning to his former glory. The nagging injuries he’s dealt with for years may finally be catching up with him and the fact that he’s now on the wrong side of 30 only exacerbates the problem. If I owned him, I’d trade him as fast as I could for whatever I could get before he gets injured again and before all trade options for him dry up when owners realize that he’s not going to return to his previous heights.

Wil Myers: Myers’ value is tough to assess. On the positive side of the ledger, he’s young, was once a top prospect, and bats leadoff. On the negative, he doesn’t walk nearly enough for a leadoff hitter and he’s been out for a month with a wrist injury, an ailment that may linger for the rest of the season and interfere with his swing. I wouldn’t actively attempt to trade for him but I would be willing to take him on just in case he continues to improve. If I owned him I would be willing to trade him but I’d refuse to sell low. When entertaining trade offers for him, I would continue to point out the positives above and insist that he’s going to improve.

One player to look out for in the Padres’ outfield is Will Venable. If the Padres decide to sacrifice some offense for defense or if Myers’ wrist turns into a long-term problem, Venable will walk into a ton of playing time as San Diego’s starting centerfielder. In the past, when Venable has gotten consistent at bats, he’s consistently hit double digit home runs and stolen plenty of bases, including a four year run from 2010 to 2013 where he never had fewer than 22 stolen bases. As of now, it’s not worth it to pick him up in shallower leagues, but he’s certainly someone to monitor closely as the season progresses.

A Quick Word on the MVP Race

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For the last few years, the MVP races have been somewhat dull. Since 2008 it’s been LeBron’s trophy to lose, and lose he rarely did. He captured four out of the six MVPs over the past six years. It’s taken either the whole basketball world collectively losing its mind over Derrick Rose, or Kevin Durant averaging a 32-7-5 on a 59-win team to wrest the award away from James. However, this year, with James missing a few games from nagging injuries and giving up shots and minutes to rest a little more, the race has suddenly been thrown wide open, and it’s anyone’s to win.

Before we can choose a winner, we have to decide what “most valuable” means, and that’s where the proposition gets murky. Everyone has their own opinion on what “most valuable” actually means. Here’s the brief rundown of each interpretation and the player it fits best.

The Best Player: The guy you would choose first in a draft to win a life-or-death pickup game.

Who? Who else but LeBron? When he goes all out, he’s unstoppable.

The Best Stats: Think Wilt. He averaged crazy stats back in the 60s but never led an elite team while he did so.

Who? Anthony Davis. A 24-10-2, with a steal and a half and three blocks a game on 53.7 percent shooting from the field and 80.2 percent from the line.

The Best Lines Night to Night: Huge triple-doubles, lots of blocks, etc.

Who? Russell Westbrook, obviously. That run of triple-doubles when Westbrook turned into Oscar Robertson for a few weeks (complete with the grumpy personality!) was jaw-dropping. He even turned in a few near quadruple-doubles when he turned the ball over seven or eight times.

The Best Player on the Best Team: This is usually the player who wins the award, as conventional logic concludes that the best team must have naturally had the best player.

Who? The Warriors are the best team and Steph Curry is their best player, so Curry would win.

The Most Valuable: This player carries his team nightly and succeeds despite little help.

Who? From night to night, James Harden has been the MVP. Curry can have a bad game and the Warriors can still win because he plays alongside an all-star (Klay Thompson), a rim-protecting big man (Andrew Bogut), and a DPOY candidate (Draymond Green). When Harden doesn’t show up to play, who’s going to pick up the slack? Trevor Ariza? Corey Brewer?

Of those different interpretations of MVP, who is most likely to win the award? James won’t win because he’s missed twelve games this year, and possibly because he stacks up poorly against past versions of himself. Davis won’t win because he’s also missed time, fourteen games, and his team wasn’t elite. Westbrook won’t win for the same reason, missing fifteen games, although he gets the edge over Davis in my opinion because of the insane lines he’s put up.

Harden and Curry, to me, are the clear frontrunners for the award. I think Harden deserves it because of his consistency, the extra load he’s shouldered (about 350 more minutes than Curry), and his irreplaceability to the Rockets.

However, Curry’s Warriors are going to win 67 games (assuming they beat the Nuggets at home tomorrow night), tied for the sixth-highest win total in NBA history, and a record on par with legendary teams such as the ’86 Celtics, the ’92 Bulls, and the ’00 Lakers (and the immortal ’07 Mavs who lost in the first round). With the historical clout that record provides, it’s Curry’s trophy to lose. Interestingly enough, the best player on each of those four 67-win teams (Bird, Jordan, Shaq, and Dirk) all won the MVP that year, providing precedent for a Curry victory.

Whatever happens, it should be an exciting cap to an exciting race. Onto the playoffs!

Odell Beckham and the Degradation of Journalism

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I don’t know about you, but I was watching Sunday night when Odell Beckham Jr. scored a touchdown.

Well, actually, he had two touchdowns, but the one that has the Internet in a tizzy was, well, just watch:

Brandon Carr is pretty much tackling Beckham to try to stop him from catching the ball. Does Beckham care? Do wolves concern themselves with sheep? Do gods care about mere mortals? Nope!

As he’s falling down under Carr, Beckham somehow reaches out with one hand and grabs the football with three fingers, staying in bounds and crashing into the end zone.

In practice, Beckham had been messing around and catching footballs with one hand, so it was clear he had the capability, but not with a 210 pound man draped around him.

I was watching it live with my dad. I cheered as the flag came down. My dad looked quizzically at me, “You do realize he caught it, right?” I went back and replayed the catch four times before it finally sunk in.

We spent ninety seconds just saying “Wow” and feeling happy that we drafted Beckham (and yes, I trashed that pick at the time. Don’t remind me).

The announcers were beside themselves trying to put the catch into historical perspective. “This was the greatest catch ever,” one said. The other exclaimed “This was the best catch I’ve ever seen!”

And therein lies the problem with modern journalism. People trip over themselves trying to use the most exclamation points and the most ‘bests’ and ‘greatests’ in an attempt to properly describe the situation.

Journalists, in an attempt to garner page views, come up with over-the-top views, saying things that are at best controversial and at worst blatant falsehoods (that’s Skip Bayless’ whole premise).

This mindset permeates throughout sports. In basketball, LBJ had a 48 point destruction of the Pistons in the playoffs a few years ago. Tripping over themselves to do justice to LeBron’s impressive performance, journalists said things like “MJ was great, but he never had a game like LeBron just did”. Really? Remember Jordan’s famous shrug game against Phoenix in the Finals, when MJ was pissed that people thought that Clyde Drexler was his equal so he went and scored six three pointers in the first half of one game, effectively putting an end to the Jordan-Drexler debate?

It’s a human thing to do. We already had the MJ experience. He took us to unprecedented places. LeBron is a beast, but he has yet to surpass Jordan. However, who wants to do the whole Jordan thing again? We want something new. That’s why we rush to appoint every decent new shooting guard the next MJ.
Heading back to football, was ODB’s catch really better than, say, the Immaculate Reception? Even heading back to more recent history, was Beckham’s catch better than the Helmet Catch? Was it even better than Manningham’s catch a couple of years ago in the Super Bowl? Yeah, it might be, but those catches led to the Giants winning the Super Bowl. The Giants didn’t even win the game!

Instead of pushing out the old to make room for the new, just admire ODB’s catch for what it was: an amazing play made by an incredible athlete.

Why Stanton’s Contract Makes Sense

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Well, it’s certainly been a long time since I’ve written on here. Hey, how are you? I’m good too. Anyways, I went undefeated in picks against the spread over the past few weeks and you can’t disprove me because I didn’t publish my picks. In reality, I hovered a few games over .500 which is about twice as good as I had previously done.

Giancarlo Stanton just signed the largest contract in the history of professional sports, a thirteen year, 325 million dollar pact with the Marlins, shattering Miguel Cabrera’s 292 million dollar extension with the Tigers earlier this year. The sheer numbers of this deal are jaw-dropping. 325 million dollars is more than the annual GDP of some Pacific By the time this contract ends babies born today will be looking at prospective high schools. Just… wow.

Still, this deal is more surprising because of who it comes from. Miami’s thrifty owner, Jeffrey Loria, is finally spending some real cash, as well as relinquishing some of the organizational policies that he had held to for years (we’ll get there later).

This deal is a huge win for Marlins fans. They get the best up-and-coming star not named Mike Trout for the foreseeable future. Loria will need to continue to spend to make this deal worthwhile because Stanton by himself isn’t enough to make the playoffs. Also, for the first time, the Marlins are finally paying the Miami-Dade County back for the 2.4 billion dollar debt over forty years that they incurred by paying for the team’s stadium.

Stanton’s contract makes a ton of sense for Loria and the Marlins. They lock down one of the league’s most recognizable stars for the foreseeable future. Why is this so valuable (other than the obvious baseball standpoint that Loria has shown time and time again not to care about)? Well, the Miami’s TV deal currently pays them in the range of 16 to 18 million bucks. For comparisons sake, the Dodgers currently make 280 million dollars a year from their TV deal. Now, the Marlins’ (comparatively) oppressive deal ends at 2020. You know what’ll help ‘em wrangle every last money out of their TV deal? A twenty-something star player.

This contract is best of all for the man himself. Stanton gets the largest guaranteed deal ever, ensuring that he’ll never have to work a day in his life. Over the next thirteen years, Stanton makes just over 68 thousand dollars… a day. Financial security? That’s an understatement.

Why would Stanton sign now? Wouldn’t he have been able to get a lot more on the open market in two years? Yes, but take a trip down memory lane with me, to September of last season. An errant pitch from Mike Fiers mashed Stanton’s face, criss-crossed bruises marring his features. Signing now removes the risk of a career-ending injury.

Additionally, Stanton has forced Loria to shed one of his main tenets of the organization: Stanton has a full no-trade clause. He’s not going to be another Jose Reyes or Mark Buerhle, signed by Loria for big money but traded away soon after. Even better for Stanton is that his deal has an out by 2020, meaning that if he’s not happy with the direction the team is taking, then he can leave, and hit free agency at 29, still in the prime of his career, and earn another big-money deal. If he does that, however, he’ll be walking away from over 200 million guaranteed dollars, but Loria will be forced to spend more to keep him.

Once you look past the absurdity of the numbers and delve into the underlying reasons behind them, as well as all the mitigating factors, Giancarlo Stanton’s massive contract makes a hell of a lot of sense.

NBA Preview: Part I (with Week 7 picks!)

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Today we’re going to get started on the lengthy NBA Preview. We’re gonna do the Eastern Conference today and then cover the Western Conference within a week or two. Let’s go reverse order of predicted standings, starting with the worst team in the NBA, the…

  1. Philadelphia 76ers

Sam Hinkie did absolutely NOTHING to improve their team this year. In free agency, they did nothing past signing minimum wage players to serve as warm bodies to fill their roster this year. In the draft, with their two first rounders they managed to get one guy who’s injured and will be out for most (if not all) of the season (Joel Embiid) and another who’s got a contract with a team in Turkey until 2016 (Dario Saric).

On the bright side, their exploits gave us two of the funniest moments of draft night. First, when they drafted Embiid, ESPN had a camera trained on him where he was in Los Angeles. As Adam Silver announced the pick, ESPN showed Embiid staring at his TV in a kind of stunned silence. Yeah, that’s how everyone feels about playing for the Sixers these days. Oh, how they must long for the days of Dr. J tearing it up with Moses Malone. Anyways, as it turns out, the “live feed” was on a slight tape delay which kind of ruins the story.

The second funny draft moment involving the Sixers is when Philadelphia drafted Elfrid Payton (to trade to the Magic, but we didn’t know it at the time) and ESPN interviewed MCW about the pick. Now, both MCW and Payton are PGs and by drafting Payton, Hinkie was signaling that MCW was no longer the point guard of the future. This led to a hilariously awkward interview with MCW doing his best not to say anything insulting. Moving on…

  1. Detroit Pistons

This isn’t hard. Obviously no one can come close to the Sixers in the Scale of Sucktitude (SoS, which is what their fans have been saying for years) but the Pistons are pretty dang bad. They’ve got three big men (Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, Josh Smith) who they’ve got to play a lot (respectively, because he’s the centerpiece of the future, because he’s young and can improve, and because they paid him a ton of money) killing their spacing. They’re forced to play one of those three players at small forward which means that unless they want to have three guys all standing within eight feet of the basket, one of them is going to have to stand behind the arc and try to shoot threes. That’s bad as it is, but it’s made even worse by Smith, who chucks threes and seems to take pleasure in killing possessions with horrendous shot after horrendous shot. Despite Stan Van Gundy taking over as coach and president and presumably implementing more of a system than his predecessor, Maurice Cheeks, it’s not looking pretty this year in Detroit. Still, they have a shot at reaching the playoffs, just not a very good one.

Amusing note about the Pistons: they barely avoided the indignity of paying four guys as head coaches for them this season, between Stan Van Gundy, John Loyer, Cheeks, and Lawrence Frank.

  1. Orlando Magic

It’s getting sunnier in Orlando, just not sunny enough. Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton join Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, and Nikola Vucevic in the next iteration of great Magic teams, but it’s still too far away to become a reality this year, especially with the recent injuries to Oladipo and Channing Frye. They have an outside shot at being this year’s Raptors/Wizards/Blazers/Bobcats and miraculously jelling into a bona fide playoff team (at least in the East) but I don’t think that these Magic are going to be that team.

  1. Boston Celtics

The Celtics have followed a five step plan for the past year or two:

  1. Piss off Rajon Rondo, a notoriously temperamental superstar, by shopping him around the league while lying and saying they weren’t
  2. Trade away Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce along with any semblance of respectability to piss off Rondo
  3. Refuse to trade Rondo for anything less than the world, showing loyalty, but pissing of Rondo because he wants to go to a good team
  4. Piss off Rondo again by drafting James Young and Marcus Smart, two young guards, to compete with Rondo for the two starting guard spots
  5. Hope that Rondo doesn’t strangle Young or Smart

Yup, Danny Ainge is a genius…

  1. Indiana Pacers

This is my first truly surprising pick, but it’s warranted.

Last year the offense was absolutely atrocious but they managed to survive on the strength of an incredible defense. Of course, they completely sucked the latter half of the year, barely got by an under-500 Hawks team in the playoffs before eventually falling to the LeBrons in six games. That’s not too good.

Now, on top of that, they’ve lost two of their three best players (including their only two decent offensive players) to injury and free agency (Paul George and Lance Stephenson, respectively). Now, without George and Stephenson, what’s going to become of a team that was already an offensive morass with them? Not anything good, I’d bet, and that’s why I’d be surprised if they managed to get anything higher than 9th or 10th in the East.

  1. New York Knicks

They’re on the right track, at least. Hiring Phil Jackson, trading veterans for picks, and using their financial clout to buy late second rounders? That’s showing that maybe the Knicks are turning over a new leaf. However, the Triangle offense will take awhile to implement properly and the Knicks don’t even have the adequate personnel for it yet, so the timetable for a potential return to relevance is next season, not this one.

  1. Brooklyn Nets

*gasps of horror from all the Nets fans out there*

Yeah, I went there. The Nets, plain and simple, just aren’t very good. It feels like they’ve got no one younger than 35 on their team, between Deron Williams, KG, and Joe Johnson. Everyone’s overpriced so they’re paying a huge luxury tax. They don’t have any cap room for the foreseeable future and they’ve traded away every draft pick they can, so they have no avenues for improving their team. There’s going to be a couple of big injuries, be it from Williams, Brook Lopez, KG, or someone else entirely, and it’s gonna derail their season—if it weren’t derailed already. The only reason they’re this high is because everyone else in the East sucks. The future is bleak in Brooklyn.

  1. Milwaukee Bucks

I think the Bucks will do exactly what Herb Kohl wanted all along before he sold the team: get the eight seed and get slaughtered in the first round by the top seed. They’re my token lottery team that vaults out of nowhere to make the playoffs as they’ve got a ton of young talent that could coalesce to make something pretty good, or at least not too bad, which, as we all know, is enough to make the playoffs in the East. The Greek Freak, Jabari Parker, and Larry Sanders, as well as a couple of other players, could make the Bucks, if not good, at least pretty interesting this season.

  1. Miami Heat

Despite losing the best player in the league over the offseason, they’re still okay enough to make the playoffs in the East, although they’d lose 50 games in the West.
LeBron gets replaced at small forward by Luol Deng and with the extra cap space Miami freed up, they signed minor contributors who can play a specific role like Josh McRoberts and Danny Granger as well as drafting the LeBron-approved Shabazz Napier, shoring up their weak rotation at the point.

I feel like this season for Miami could be a lot like how it’s been for the Bulls the past two years. Both teams don’t have their best player and are counted out because of it. Both teams have a strong team philosophy and a very good coach. Chicago managed to put together a pretty good team despite all its tribulations and Miami will be able to do the same.

  1. Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta’s season is a very important one for the statheads. Every single one of their starters (including the center, Al Horford) can shoot threes. Even Houston, with all the threes it shoots, has Dwight Howard always down low. Will the Hawks be able to just have all five guys stand beyond the three point line and just keep on bombing threes, destroying the enemy from long range?

The past couple of years, Houston has taken three-point-shooting to an extreme, by shooting a ton of threes. Now Atlanta is taking it to a different extreme, having all five guys shoot threes. Will it work? Time will tell, but it should work well enough to get a six seed.

  1. Washington Wizards

The Wiz had a surprising run last year to a five seed and the second round, before falling to the Pacers in six. From there it can only get better. John Wall and Bradley Beal are young and improving, they resigned Marcin Gortat, the Polish Hammer, a big part of their postseason run last year, and they signed Paul Pierce, who’ll provide veteran leadership to this young team while also being a half-decent player. Also, the Wiz did the most un-Wizard thing ever by not resigning Trevor Ariza to a cap crippling contract that’d cap their upside at a five or six seed. Maybe Washington has turned over a new leaf. Never mind, I just thought about Otto Porter Jr., drafted third overall last year, who’s played about eight minutes with the team, Jan Vesely (6th overall in 2011), whose career highlight was being kissed by a hot girlfriend when he got drafted, and JaVale McGee (18th in 2008) whose main traits are being big, having long arms, and being crazy. So never mind about that new leaf thing.

  1. Toronto Raptors

For the record, I think the Raps will finish with a worse record than the Wizards but I have them here because they’ll win the Atlantic Division and winning a division guarantees a team a top four playoff seed. Toronto is very similar to Washington, though, because they were both surprises last year who made the playoffs last year after years of being complete and utter crap. We’ve already discussed how the Wiz managed to avoid destroying their team through foolish signings in free agency, but the Raps did the same thing. Rather than either letting their best player go or resigning him to a max contract that he didn’t deserve, they got him on a very reasonable four year, 48 million dollar contract. Anyways, with the expected improvement from all their young players, they should hold steady with about the same record as they had last year. Their main regret after this season will be drafting Bruno Caboclo, the physical freak from Brazil, 20th overall when they could have gotten him in the second round. Caboclo won’t be ready for four years and they could have used another player who could have helped them out this year. Alas.

  1. Charlotte Hornets

I’m a lot higher than most on the Hornets (it feels so weird to say that) this year. They’ve got a great defense that got even better with the addition of Lance Stephenson. They’re offense was passable last year and it should improve like the defense with Stephenson’s chaotic driving strategy adding to Al Jefferson’s post up game. They added PJ Hairston and Noah Vonleh, their two first rounders, as well as Stephenson, to Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bismack Biyombo, and Cody Zeller to create a stellar under-24 core of seven players. The Hornets should continue their rise this year and for years to come.

  1. Chicago Bulls

I’ve got Chicago this high, yeah, but not for the reason you might think. Sure, Derrick Rose is back, but there’s no guarantee that he’s good, or even remains healthy. The real reason why I like the Bulls this year is because of the three main additions they acquired this offseason. Doug McDermott, Pau Gasol, and Nikola Mirotic should combine to give the Bulls a big offensive boost—and that’s without factoring in whatever contributions Rose will provide. Combine that with Thib’s customary top five defense, and you’ve got a recipe for a good season. Unless Rose gets all the way back to his pre-injury form then they won’t be in the top tier of the NBA but they’re good enough to be the second seed in the East.

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers

In the most underwhelming prediction since way back with the Sixers, the Cavs will take the first seed in the East. Between LeBron, Love, Irving, and a very good supporting cast, Cleveland should dominate this year. There’s really not much else to say after that.

Quickie playoff picks:

Cavs over Bucks, Bulls over Heat, Hornets over Hawks, and Wizards over Raps. Bulls over Hornets, Cavs over Wizards, and Cavs over Bulls. And yes, I know I’m original picking the higher seed in almost every series.

Onto the Week 7 Quick Picks:

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 over New York Jets

Cincinnati +3 over INDIANAPOLIS

WASHINGTON -5.5 over Tennessee

CHICAGO -3.5 over Miami

Cleveland -5 over JACKSONVILLE

Seattle -7 over ST. LOUIS
Carolina +7 over GREEN BAY

Atlanta +7 over Baltimore

BUFFALO -5 over Minnesota

DETROIT -3 over New Orleans

SAN DIEGO -4 over Kansas City

DALLAS -6.5 over New York Giants

Arizona -3.5 over OAKLAND

DENVER -6.5 over San Francisco

Houston -3.5 over PITTSBURGH

This Week: 0-0-0

Last Week: 6-9-0

Season: 41-48-1

Sushi’s Week 6 Quick Picks

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Hey everyone, sorry for the delay in posting this week. The three day holidays make it tough to write. Anyways, because of the holidays, this week we’re just going to do quick picks instead of the overly long version that I generally churn out.

Brief note about the MLB playoffs: remember my predictions in last week’s picks? Yeah, I got every single one of them wrong. Remember, as always, if you want to win money in Vegas, just go against every single one of my picks and you’ll be in good shape. Anyways, here are the picks.

Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON

Denver -8 over NEW YORK JETS

CLEVELAND -2 over Pittsburgh

Jacksonville +5.5 over TENNESEE

ATLANTA -3 over Chicago

Green Bay -3.5 over MIAMI

Detroit -1.5 over MINNESOTA

CINCINNATTI -7 over Carolina

BUFFALO +3 over New England

TAMPA BAY +3 over Baltimore

San Diego -7 over OAKLAND

SEATTLE -8 over Dallas

ARIZONA -3.5 over Washington

NEW YORK GIANTS +3 over Philadelphia

ST. LOUIS +3.5 over San Francisco

 

This Week: 1-0-0

Last Week: 7-7-0
Season: 35-39-1

Sushi’s Week 5 Picks

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6-7. That was my record last week. Wasn’t great, but wasn’t too bad. Anyways, before we get started, let’s just go through my MLB playoff predictions quickly.

Going through the playoffs:

ALDS 2v3: Detroit over Baltimore

Reasoning: Detroit has a slightly a better offense and slightly better pitching overall, but they have multiple guys who they can turn to win a game for them between David Price, Max Scherzer, and even Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander, and Anibal Sanchez (if he’s back from injury).

ALDS 1v4: Los Angeles over Kansas City

The Angels have a huge hitting advantage which can overcome the slight pitching superiority of the Royals.

ALCS: Detroit over Los Angeles

They’re even hitting-wise but Detroit outclasses the Halos’ pitching staff in every way.

NL WCG: San Francisco over Pittsburgh

They’re about even hitting-wise (although I’d give the slight edge to the Pirates) but the Giants have a pitcher or two upon whom they can rely to win a game for them while the Pirates have none.

NLDS 2v3: Los Angeles over St. Louis

The Dodgers surpass the Cardinals in every aspect of the game, with better starting pitching, relief pitching, and hitting.

NLDS 1v4: Washington over San Francisco

See the previous section and just change the names of the teams.

NLCS: Washington over Los Angeles

In the best series in this year’s playoffs (and probably in years) the Nationals beat the Dodgers behind their immense depth.

WS: Washington over Detroit

Either this one or the predicted NLCS will be the best series this year. The Tigers have the best two pitchers in the series as well as the best two to three hitters, but again, the Nationals’ depth will give them the World Series.

Now, onto the picks!

GREEN BAY -9 over Minnesota

I’m going to follow the recent trend and name this my Derrick Rose’s ACL blowout of the week.

Teddy Bridgewater looked really good last week against Atlanta but he hurt his ankle. Normally he’d be back the next week, but because of the short week, he’s questionable. I could go into the evils of Thursday night football, but that’s another story.

Without Bridgewater, whom are the Vikings going to be starting? Christian Ponder? Matt Cassel? Yeah…

Chicago +2.5 over CAROLINA

I’m coming back for more with this Taco Bell’s Upset Pick of the Week (because of what Taco Bell’s food will do to your stomach). After picking Chicago last week to upset Green Bay (and them getting blown out), I’m doubling up on them. Here’s why. Chicago has an amazing offense and score a ton of points. No matter your thoughts on Carolina’s defense this year (mine are that they’re inconsistent but will usually be pretty bad), they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bears.

Cleveland +1.5 over TENNESSEE

I like the Browns this year. It’s inexplicable, but I have a good feeling about them this year. On the other hand, I hate the Titans this year. I can actually explain this feeling. They’ve got no defense and the little offense they have (Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Delanie Walker) is hamstrung by their lack of a functioning NFL quarterback. Bishop Sankey could run wild through Cleveland’s suspect run defense, but other than that, it should be all Cleveland.

By the way, if it weren’t for the Bears, this would be Taco Bell Upset of the Week.

PHILADELPHIA -7 over St. Louis

Gee, do I want the amazing offense playing against an underperforming defense, laying only seven points? Hmmm….

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over ATLANTA
News flash: the Giants are for real. They look like they’ve finally picked up Ben McAdoo’s playbook and their offense is looking very good. Their defense has been better than expected, or at least good enough to keep them in games. Normally I’d pick Atlanta here but for two reasons. One, Rashad Jennings should rip through Atlanta’s paper-thin run defense and two, the Falcons are playing away from home. Dome teams have historically played much better at home compared to on the road. Just look at Drew Brees and the Saints’ home/road splits. They’re astounding. Speaking of New Orleans…

NEW ORLEANS -10.5 over Tampa Bay

…This week they’re playing at home. Against the Buccaneers. 10.5 points isn’t enough to stop me from taking them every day of the week plus twice on Sunday.

DALLAS -5.5 over Houston

This might be one of the best matchups in the league for the Cowboys. Arian Foster is hobbled by injury and Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t throw so Dallas’ defense won’t be exposed. On the other side of the ball, Romo and Dez Bryant will have a field day against the shaky Houston secondary and DeMarco Murray will rampage through the feeble defense that let Rashad Jennings run for 176 yards in Week 3. JJ Watt can’t play all 22 positions on the field, so the Cowboys are in good shape.

DETROIT -7 over Buffalo

Would you bet your life on Kyle Orton and Sammy Watkins being outscored by less than seven by Matt Stafford and Megatron? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 over Baltimore

Andrew the Giant against Joe Flacco and 3-yards-per-carry Baltimore defense??? C’mon Vegas, try and make these lines a little more challenging. Actually, never mind. I’ll need a career when I grow up if writing doesn’t work out.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE

This game worries me a little because Blake Bortles has a chance to have a classic rookie game, an out of nowhere 3 TD 350 yard performance. However, I’ll just keep on reminding myself that Jacksonville literally has no secondary (no seriously, they usually have a couple of plastic bags in there as their starting cornerbacks) and the Steelers have Roethlisberger throwing to Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton.

Arizona +7 over DENVER

Honestly, I don’t like this pick much. I just hadn’t picked an underdog in awhile. Of course, picking Denver doesn’t really appeal to me though so I’ll go with the points and hope for the best and that Patrick Peterson and Co. can shut down the Denver passing attack.

SAN DIEGO -6.5 over New York Jets

The Chargers are at home. They are a very good team. They have a very good pass attack. The Jets have a bad secondary. The Jets start Geno “Apple” Smith, the Human Turnover. The line should not be less than 10. End of story.

Kansas City +6 over SAN FRANCISCO
Totally a gut call here. I hate the Niners this year and the Chiefs looked really good last week. Of course, it was against the Pats, but still.

Cincinnati -1 over NEW ENGLAND

The Bengals so far have looked like one of the best teams in football. The Patriots, quite frankly, have not. Sometimes it’s that simple.

Seattle -7 over WASHINGTON

This would be my Derrick Rose Blowout of the Week if it weren’t for the customary Thursday night blowout. Kirk Cousins looked horrendous last week against the Giants (I predicted it, didn’t I?) and the Seahawks have a secondary that’s twice as good as New York’s. Also, Washington’s defense is bad enough that it let up 45 points to the Giants. THE GIANTS. I think Russell Wilson and Co. can do better than that.

This Week: 0-0-0

Last Week: 6-7-0

Total: 28-32-1

Sushi’s Week 4 Picks

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This week’s picks are going to be a little shorter than usual due to the holidays. The hope is that it’ll mean that I screw up slightly less.
On second thought, my picks are actually quite useful. The trick is to carefully read my picks… and then to do the exact opposite. Then you’re pretty much assured of a strong week.

At least I didn’t do too badly in Week 3, going 9-7. I’ll try and build on that instead of letting it come tumbling down like Tampa Bay’s season.

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +3.5 over WASHINGTON

As always, this section was written on Wednesday
Kirk Cousins seems overrated to me. He’s had about 80 great pass attempts and 240 bad to middling ones. That doesn’t scream “FRANCHISE QB” to me, let alone even whispering it to me with a hoarse voice. Of course, he may be better than RGII and half so there’s that.

The Giants looked good last week against the Texans and they may have finally figured it out McAdoo’s offense. Of course, I’m starting the Washington D/ST in my fantasy matchup this week so I guess I’m not too confident in them. Let’s just move on before I change my pick.

Miami -4 over OAKLAND (in London)

I’m going against the Raiders until they give me a good reason not to. Until a 45 years younger George Blanda flies out from the sky on a unicorn then I’m going to keep going against them.

CHICAGO +1.5 over Green Bay

The Bears have looked great the last two weeks while the Pack Attack has been toothless. I think that Chicago’s offense is really good and that Green Bay’s probably is too. Their defenses are both bad. In a matchup between two equal teams, I’m just going to take the home team and the points and run with it.

This is also my Upset of the Week, sponsored by Taco Bell because of what their food will do to your stomach.

Buffalo +3 over HOUSTON
Both of these teams could be this year’s “Came out of nowhere to be a surprise 10 win playoff team”. Whichever one wins this game has the inside track to taking that title. The two teams seem to be about even and, as with the last game, I’ll just take the points.

INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 over Tennessee

Andrew the Giant against a team that’s already lost whatever goodwill that it built up from its dominating Week 1 win against Kansas City? AND they’re at home? Pencil this in as this week’s Derrick Rose Blowout of the Week!

Carolina +3 over BALTIMORE

Remember last week in the Baltimore-Cleveland section where I talked about the teams that I hate this year and will be betting against as much as I can? Yeah, Baltimore’s in that group. Until they show me something better than their poor play since their Super Bowl win, I’m not bothering to believe in them.

Also, a big underlying storyline from this Ravens season is the Ray Rice saga. And yeah, I know it’s a tired old narrative, but remember what happened last year with the Dolphins? They were going along quite swimmingly (and yes, I may have forced that in because of the Dolphins. So sue me) and then the Incognito scandal hit and they ended up missing the playoffs. So yeah, this type of stuff has the capacity to derail a full season and I think it’ll do the same for this year’s Ravens season.

I can’t stress enough how scared I am of going against the Ravens in the STEVE SMITH REVENGE GAME (which works best if you write it in bolded all caps). Steve Smith is a psycho. However, no matter the odds of Steve Smith running through the Carolina defense to score a touchdown, knocking over three hundred pound defensive linemen left and right, before flipping a double birdie at the Panthers bench, (I’d peg the odds at 5:2) I’m not going to go against the clearly superior team.

Detroit -1.5 over NEW YORK JETS

The Lions are a good team. The Jets are not. Detroit should never be laying less than 7 points against the Jets, even when they’re on the road. This pick is just about as easy as could be. And yes, because I said that, there’s about a 99.37 chance that the Jets win by 20. You’re welcome New York.

Tampa Bay +7.5 over PITTSBURGH

Yes, the Steelers are better than the Bucs. The question is, to what extent? Honestly, I’m not sure, but I’d put it at around a touchdown. However, the Buccos have the super-important half point on top of a touchdown, leading me to take them.

SAN DIEGO -13 over Jacksonville

This, inventively enough, is my blowout pick of the week (sponsored by Derrick Rose). Yeah, I know it’s kind of a copout, choosing the highest line of the week as the biggest blowout, but still. Jacksonville sucks. San Diego is pretty good. Put those two together, and you get a blowout. It ain’t rocket science, folks.

Philadelphia +4.5 over SAN FRANCISCO

Love Philly this year, hate the Niners. Chip Kelly’s offense will destroy San Fran’s weakened defense and I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is good enough (for my reasoning, read last week’s picks) to keep up with the Eagles’ offense.

Atlanta -3 over MINNESOTA

Great offensive team in a dome (albeit on the road)? And only laying three points? Has Christmas (or Chanuka) come early?

New Orleans -3 over DALLAS

The Saints have a top three offense (along with Denver and Philadelphia). The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses ever. You do the math.

New England -3 over KANSAS CITY

Since the Patriots of yore, in the early to mid 2000s, New England has been all about their offense. This year it’s finally starting to flip. Brady is getting older, his offensive line is lacking, and his only offensive weapons are a 75% healthy Gronk and Julian Edelman. Meanwhile, their defense is star-studded with guys like Vince Wilfork, Darrelle Revis, and Jerod Mayo. Of course, in this game, it’s all irrelevant against a Chiefs team that has been brutalized by injuries. Pats -3 all the way!
By the way, the last two weeks (including this one) have had their Thursday night games be the largest blowout of the week. This sucks for me because I generally post my picks on Friday which means that I can’t pick those games as the blowouts of the week. Can I preemptively pick the Thursday night game as the blowout of the week? At the very least, I’m doing it for this week with the Minnesota at Green Bay game being on Thursday.

Anyways, thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed this post. If you did, please share the link to this page. Muchas gracias in advance.

This Week: 1-0-0

Last Week: 9-7-0

Total: 22-25-1